"K4YZ" wrote:

The written tests have been gutted for years.

Colleges that used to allow extra-curricular credit for
possessing an Amateur License no long do it

To be fair, I do not know of any college that has done this since well
before I attended undergraduate school in the early 80's. I believe that in
some cases you could (successfully) petition a school for credit under the
guise of "real life experience" being a "replacement" for required class
work. However, as a rule of thumb I do not believe having an amateur license
has given you any college credit at a mainstream university since the mid
70's, if not before that.


Now to see where Amateur Radio "is" in a year or two from
now. I for one will be watching with bated breath to see
if this in-rush of new operators shows up. I say "it ain't
a hap'nin thing"

I agree, but for reasons I will outline below.


As I have said previously, this is my guess: There's
going to be an initial rush of "upgrades" of current Techs
to HF licenses.

I agree with the Tech upgrade aspect of your comment. If you look at ham
radio statistics on Speroni's web site, you can see that since the
restructuring that occurred in 2000, there has been a continual uptick in
"extra" class licenses and a steady decrease in other license classes.

(The only exception to this is the Tech license, which, as the de-facto
'entry level' license, is logically going to see the most growth. It is the
first license most people obtain, and its the only license you can get w/o
the "hurdle" of the code test. Thus, the Tech license is the 30mhz
equivalent of the Extra-class license, in the sense that w/o element 1a it
was the license class you "topped out" at.)

The reason for trend simple: There is no compelling reason for an "active"
licensee *not* to upgrade to the highest grade available. The major
stumbling block for most amateurs -- the component which required the most
work to pass -- has always been the code test. Once a licensee overcomes the
hurdle of the 5wpm code test, the additional tests to upgrade to Extra are
minimal. After all, the existing theory examinations do not actually test
radio knowledge, they test your ability to rote memorize the question pool.
I daresay that

With the removal of element 1a, there is no reason for many of the current
Tech licenses to take, and pass, the theory examinations to obtain HF
privileges.

I think there will be a noticable decline in Tech licenses, and an increase
in General and Extra class tickets, as those folks migrate into HF
privileges.

I also think the amount will be less than you expect. I think the migration
will be measurable, but overall a lot less than most people expect. Much for
the same reason why the decrease in the General license has been steady, but
minimal each month. Many people are satisfied with the operating privileges
they have, and they have no need to upgrade further. Those Techs who have no
intention of working HF will more than likely remain Techs.



will be a chartable increase in new-license applicants for the next 12
months, and then it will taper back to close-to-original numbers.

I disagree with this assessment entirely. I believe the uptick in "new"
licenses as the result of this change will be statistically insignificant.
Total licenses have been decreasing steadily since April 03. This latest
change will not change that trend.

Essentially, at this point in time, anyone who wants an amateur radio
license can obtain one with relative ease. I do not believe there is this
huge untapped reserve of potential radio operators who would join the
amateur ranks if and only if HF access were available to them w/o a code
test.

Oh, I'm sure someone will pop in with the inevitable "I have a friend who
(insert story here) and will only become an amateur once the code test is
removed because his interests lay on HF".

I'm sure there *ARE* some of those people. Are there a lot of them? I
seriously doubt it. So, I think the net result of this change will be a
measureable albeit minor bump in new licenses, if any noticable difference
at all. Almost all these folks will obtain a Tech license and then
immediately migrate into a General or Extra-class license.



I say the overall census of the Amateur Radio service doesn't have
more than a 10% short term increase, and it will be back to "business
as usual" by this time next year.

For a few months, you *may* see a higher-than-average rate of increase in
those license classes, but I wouldn't even give it 12 months -- I would say
within 3 to 6 months, any influx of "new blood" will be minimal.

Within that same time period I do not think you will see a reversal of the
trend in a decreasing number of licensed amateurs. The overall rate of
decline may slow, but I do not expect this change to reverse the negative
slope.

Amateur radio is a dead hobby.

My children are 17, 12, and 8. None of them express any type of interest
whatsoever in ham radio. Computers, cell phones, text-messaging -- all
staples of the modern world. 50 years ago, radio was a common staple of
every household, and naturally, a source of education.

Today, my kids are interested in C# programming, not how the radio works.

The cell phone killed the utility of radio.

Talk around the world on a radio? Why do I need to spend $2000 on a decent
HF setup when I can turn on my $500 dell and do the same thing?



Overall, Steve, I think some of your observations are dead-on, while others
are misguided. Only time will tell, naturally.

73
KH6HZ