"Dave Heil" wrote:

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved? The
thought of being active in public service communications? The interest in
DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able to modify
commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up and operating
a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay in touch with
local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

None of this draws people to ham radio these days (in large numbers, I'm
sure there are always exceptions and there are some people who join the
amateur ranks for the reasons you list.) In reality I do not disagree with
anything you have posted in your followup message.

All one has to do is view the licensing stats at Speroni's site to see the
future of ham radio.

Amateur radio licensees peaked in 04/03 at 687,860 -- exactly 12 years (10
years + 2 years grace period) after the introduction of the Tech license,
which illustrates all the no-code Tech license did for ham radio was stall
the inevitable negative slope in licensing statistics we see today.

In the past 43 months, Amateur radio has lost 31,000 licensees. In the 43
months preceeding that high point, Amateur Radio added 11,919. Thus, we are
losing amateurs at 2.5 times the rate we added them in just the same period
before.


I do not believe that elimination of the code test will reverse this trend,
because:

a) I do not believe the code test represented a significant barrier to entry
for many people (post 2000) looking for HF privileges. At 5WPM the cost test
did little more than to test the applicant's ability to rote memorize a
table of dits and dahs, and perform a mental table lookup. For this reason,
I do not feel there is this huge untapped reservior of people waiting in the
wings to get a ham license, as there were when the code test was eliminated
for VHF. I'm sure there are *some* people, I simply do not feel it is a
statistically significant amount.

b) I do not feel the "problem" with ham radio is the code test, or geezer
operators bitchin' on the air about non-coded operators. For reasons that
clearly we can debate for eons, the younger generations that I work and
interact with on a daily basis simply are not interested in ham radio the
way folks 20+ years ago were. My 8 and 12 year olds would rather play XBOX
than sit around learning radio theory. EE/CS students I work with are
thinking "consumer electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".


We can get together in 2010 and see if there were any meaningful bump in
license stats as a result of this change. I'm sticking with my original
predictions in my original reply to Steve's posting

73
KH6HZ

"KH6HZ" wrote in
:

"Dave Heil" wrote:

The idea of communicating without a landline phone being involved?
The thought of being active in public service communications? The
interest in DXing? Tinkering with circuits or antennas? Being able
to modify commercially built equipment to make it better? Setting up
and operating a fast scan TV station on one's own? Being able to stay
in touch with local buddies who are also radio amateurs?

None of this draws people to ham radio these days (in large numbers,
I'm sure there are always exceptions and there are some people who
join the amateur ranks for the reasons you list.) In reality I do not
disagree with anything you have posted in your followup message.


I'm not sure exactly why large numbers of people would be drawn to
Amateur radio ever!


All one has to do is view the licensing stats at Speroni's site to see
the future of ham radio.

Those stats are very skewed at the moment

Amateur radio licensees peaked in 04/03 at 687,860 -- exactly 12 years
(10 years + 2 years grace period) after the introduction of the Tech
license, which illustrates all the no-code Tech license did for ham
radio was stall the inevitable negative slope in licensing statistics
we see today.

And so many of those Technicians had not been active in Amateur
Radio after cell phones took over for local communiations. Another group
left after the magnificent treatment that they reveived from the
"superior" Hams.



In the past 43 months, Amateur radio has lost 31,000 licensees. In the
43 months preceeding that high point, Amateur Radio added 11,919.
Thus, we are losing amateurs at 2.5 times the rate we added them in
just the same period before.



I do not believe that elimination of the code test will reverse this
trend, because:

a) I do not believe the code test represented a significant barrier to
entry for many people (post 2000) looking for HF privileges. At 5WPM
the cost test did little more than to test the applicant's ability to
rote memorize a table of dits and dahs, and perform a mental table
lookup. For this reason, I do not feel there is this huge untapped
reservior of people waiting in the wings to get a ham license, as
there were when the code test was eliminated for VHF. I'm sure there
are *some* people, I simply do not feel it is a statistically
significant amount.

I have issues with maintaining my weight, yet my wife remains as
slender as the day we met. She has difficulty understanding how some
people cannot control their eating.

I was a 3 pack a day smoker, and in 1977, I decided to quit cold
turkey. She continues ot smoke, and apparently it is impossible for her
to quit.

My point is just because it is such a simple matter for some people
to learn Morse code, it does not mean that others will find it so
simple.

One of the most amusing things about those who would have Morse
code testing as the metric of an Amateur's worth, (of course, testing at
above 5 WPM) is the dichotomy of learning the code was apparently easy
for them. I see that all the time.

If learning Morse code is easy, then how does it become the metric of an
Amateurs Worthyness?

And at what point is it the measurment ofhow good a Ham is? 5 WPM?
7 WPM? 20 WPM?

There are apparently some superhuman young people in Europe that
can do better than 150 WPM! Nww those must be Uberhams! 8^)


b) I do not feel the "problem" with ham radio is the code test, or
geezer operators bitchin' on the air about non-coded operators.

I do. If I had a person in the shack to demonstrate the ARS to
them, I would never ever put 75 meters on.

For
reasons that clearly we can debate for eons, the younger generations
that I work and interact with on a daily basis simply are not
interested in ham radio the way folks 20+ years ago were. My 8 and 12
year olds would rather play XBOX than sit around learning radio
theory. EE/CS students I work with are thinking "consumer
electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".

And I know quite a few EE students who *are* interested in RF, and
have gotten the Tech license. Many have gone on to advanced license
classes.


- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

My 8 and 12 year olds would rather play XBOX
than sit around learning radio theory. EE/CS students I work with are
thinking "consumer electronics", not "old fogey HF radios".



Someone ought to create an Xbox game that simulates a contest using CW
on HF... Use the controller as a code key, and the game software
creates pile-ups. One of the options of the game would be to select
yourself as the rare DX, and deal with working with everyone in the
pile-up.... And you don't have to fight with the condo board or HOA
over antennas... :-)

How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct. There will always be a few new people, but if there is not
sufficient mass to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will
either go out of business or build other things people want to buy.
Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio. Young people today have cell phones, computers,
the internet. They have absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate
with friends around the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint
dry. CW would put them to sleep. Look around you, how many young people are
hams? If not around 600,000 young hams, ham radio is history because in
around 10-20 years most existing hams will be at room temperature.

"M Peraaho" wrote in message
...

How many old people are hams? How many young people? If there are not
enough young people to replace the old and dying hams amateur radio will
become extinct.

Since the FCC licensing system does not include DOB, it is hard to say for
sure (and I'm not sure if you could cross reference the amateur database
with, say, the ULS/FRB databases, which I do not recall if they contain DOB
info anyway.)

So, I would say, the only thing we have to go on is anecdotal evidence. My
observations have been that the No-Code Tech license brought in a lot of
"younger" hams, but even so, these hams were in their 30's and 40's. Almost
all of the newer hams in our local club tend to be codeless techs, some move
to HF, others do not. At field day these days, I rarely see anyone under the
age of 30, unless its a family member of another participant.

I would say that most HF operators tend to be older, because, mainly, it
helps to own your own home to set up a decent HF station. You (usually)
can't string an 80m dipole, install a tower, etc. on your landlord's
property. Not to mention PO your downstairs neighbor when you start coming
thru their TV set. Simple economics prevale: older men are more established,
tend to own their own homes, etc.


There will always be a few new people, but if there is not sufficient mass
to sustain the numbers, it will die. Manufacturers will either go out of
business or build other things people want to buy.

Keep in mind manufacturers address other market segments too, so it is
unlikely they will go out of business, although they may stop offering
amateur-related gear at some point where it becomes economically unfeasible
to at least recoup their R&D, plant, and manufacturing expenses. Plus they
build gear not only for US amateurs but other countries as well.


Governments will give frequency spectrum up to the highest bidder and that
will not be amateur radio.

Someone else can comment on this, I do not follow the spectrum allocation
wars. Since most consumer-oriented spectrum is on the higher frequency
bands, I would guess the demand for spectrum 2m would be minimal. Can't
say that for sure though, that's just a "gut feeling" on my part, and
someone who is more "up" on spectrum demands could post for sure.


Young people today have cell phones, computers, the internet. They have
absolutely no need for amateur radio to communicate with friends around
the world. To them it is as exciting as watching paint dry. CW would put
them to sleep.

As I've stated in my previous postings, I do not think that CW (in the form
of the Element 1A licensing requirement) has been a serious deterrent to a
statistically significant amount of people over the past 6 years.

If you look at licensing statistics from Speroni's site.

The (no-code) Tech license was introduced in 92. For roughly 5 years, we saw
an upshoot in licensees, until 97, where things started to taper off again.
The "pool" of new people started to taper off, and we were unable to
maintain the growth. For roughly a year, licenses hovered around 674k.

Elements 1b and 1c were eliminated in 2000. Again, we saw an uptick in new
licensees, until April 03 -- roughly 12 years to the month that the Codeless
Tech license was introduced. I do not believe in coincidences -- 12 years
(10 years + 2 year grace period) -- and I believe these stats would suggest
that the Tech license simply delayed the inevitable downturn in licensees we
would have seen earlier.

From 2000 until April 03, we added 11k new licensees. Then the downward
slope has started, and over the past 40 months we have lost 32k licensees.

It is my belief that most people who were interested in HF operation, but
were turned off because of the code test, already got licensed in the
2000-2003 timeframe. Yes, there are *some* people who cannot pass a 5wpm
code test. However, these people are few and far between.

A 5wpm code test requires little more than rote memorization of a table, and
then a mental table-lookup during the testing. This is dramatically
different from the 13 and 20wpm code tests, where you have to "hear" entire
letters or words even, in order to have a QSO. (A good friend of mine copies
CW at close to 30wpm, and can have a conversation with me in his shack at
the same time, while listening to the other operator in the background. When
I asked him how he did it, he told me he hears whole 'words', and his
subconcious copies the conversation while he can focus on other things.
That's a "skill" it takes a very long time to develop. Oh, BTW, he's 38, and
has been licensed since he was a teenager.)


Look around you, how many young people are hams? If not around 600,000
young hams, ham radio is history because in around 10-20 years most
existing hams will be at room temperature.

Many hobbies have become passee over the years, and I believe ham radio is
eventually going to become one of them. Not many folks play horseshoes
today, for instance. The death of ham radio is neither good nor bad, it
simply "is". I suspect ham radio will be around for quite a few years to
come... certainly, it will not go away in my lifetime (assuming I live to
the average age of 72, that would be 30 years from now). Amateur Radio will
not die with a bang. It will die with a wimper, and slowly fade away over
time.

73
KH6HZ