My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.


Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would
you prefer to?

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although
cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY


Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be
pretty much done by 2010 one way or another. The "cell phone substitute"
hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number
of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of
course this could have varied in different parts of the country. Again, I
think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier
though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative
point in time in my opinion.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.


Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would
you prefer to?

Be my guest, Dee. I'll take care of the ARS license numbers.

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although
cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY


Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be
pretty much done by 2010 one way or another.

When I first read that, 2010 seemed a long long way off.

Now I realize it's only three years!

The "cell phone substitute"
hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number
of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of
course this could have varied in different parts of the country.

Yup. Main point it that it's not some hard-line date, but a gradual
effect.

Again, I
think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier
though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative
point in time in my opinion.

We shall see!

73 de Jim, N2EY

Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION date
of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.


Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change.


Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a week,
it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked senders
list. You may still participate but you will have to have your guess
submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Dee, N8UZE

Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that
date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.


Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked
senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have your
guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more --- Added 12/29/06


Dee, N8UZE

"Dee Flint" wrote

My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that
N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%

Speroni doesn't have final figures for December. Using November as a
baseline, there are 657k hams.

Since April '03 (43 months) there has been a net loss of 30k hams, or
roughly 700/mo.

A 1% loss would be 6600. 700*12=8400. Or, 1.25%

I would conclude that, on the face, your guess is probably accurate. I would
guess more 0 to -1%. I doubt you will see a positive 1% growth.



In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a
few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far
between.

I do not think you will see any "growth" at all.

I think numbers will continue to decline, and then "bottom out" at a minimum
number. Once that point is reached, the number will remain relatively the
same, +/- a few thousand, depending on renewal/expiration cycles. I do not
think you will see this happen until sometime around 2012.

73
KH6HZ