My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

Dee, N8UZE