So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote:
On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800, wrote:


Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

he did not declare a winner

It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take
another 3 years...

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote in message
ps.com...

wrote:
On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800, wrote:


Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came
closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

he did not declare a winner

It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take
another 3 years...


While that is possible, it is much more likely (based on past history) that
it will be published in the Federal Register within 30 days of having been
posted on the FCC site. That would make it January 18 for publication. Then
it would normally be effective 30 days after that, which would make the
effectivity date February 17.

Or they may decide to get all their work caught up for the end of the year
and it could go into effect sooner.

Either way, I've got my VE team lined up with additional members in case we
get an unusually large number of applicants in Feb, Mar, & Apr. After that
it should settle down to the normal or only slightly higher than normal
number of applicants.

Dee, N8UZE

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

I don't know if the Report and Order has been published in the Federal
Register
yet. The new rules cannot become effective until at least 30 days after
that.
I have been told that because the Report and Order modifies an earlier
one
(the "omnibus" R&O), the delay will be 60 days rather than 30, but I'm
not
sure if that is true.

The process went on so long that we began taking 'second guesses' a
year or so ago.

Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second
prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule
states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates
Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA".
Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be
late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect.

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth
or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new
rules.....


73, mri xmas es hny de Jim, N2EY

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote:
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh......Hey Brain....

I HATE to ruin your rants with facts...HOWEVER....

Your "buddie's" post outnumber mine 15:1.

But you go right on trying to make folks believe otherwise.

Steve, K4YZ

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

I don't know if the Report and Order has been published in the Federal
Register
yet. The new rules cannot become effective until at least 30 days after
that.
I have been told that because the Report and Order modifies an earlier
one
(the "omnibus" R&O), the delay will be 60 days rather than 30, but I'm
not
sure if that is true.


As of last Friday, it had not been published in the Federal Register. This
new Report and Order do not modify the "omnibus" R & O and stands completely
on its own. However, it could easily be 60 days from the announcement as it
may take up to 30 days to get published in the Federal Register and then
another 30 days for its implementation date.

Dee, N8UZE

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

I don't know if the Report and Order has been published in the Federal
Register
yet. The new rules cannot become effective until at least 30 days after
that.
I have been told that because the Report and Order modifies an earlier
one
(the "omnibus" R&O), the delay will be 60 days rather than 30, but I'm
not
sure if that is true.


As of last Friday, it had not been published in the Federal Register.

Thanks, Dee.

That means Dec 26 at the earliest. Effective date Jan 26 at the
earliest.

This
new Report and Order do not modify the "omnibus" R & O and stands completely
on its own.

??

I thought it modifies the "omnibus" R&O by moving the automated data
segment on 80 meters to 3585-3600.

Whether that invokes a 60 day rule is another issue.

However, it could easily be 60 days from the announcement as it
may take up to 30 days to get published in the Federal Register and then
another 30 days for its implementation date.

Agreed.

In any event it's at least a month away. Maybe more.

73 de Jim, N2EY

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came
closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

I don't know if the Report and Order has been published in the Federal
Register
yet. The new rules cannot become effective until at least 30 days after
that.
I have been told that because the Report and Order modifies an earlier
one
(the "omnibus" R&O), the delay will be 60 days rather than 30, but I'm
not
sure if that is true.


As of last Friday, it had not been published in the Federal Register.

Thanks, Dee.

That means Dec 26 at the earliest. Effective date Jan 26 at the
earliest.

This
new Report and Order do not modify the "omnibus" R & O and stands
completely
on its own.

??

I thought it modifies the "omnibus" R&O by moving the automated data
segment on 80 meters to 3585-3600.

Whether that invokes a 60 day rule is another issue.


The way it reads sounds like it is being treated as a "new" ruling rather
than modifying the last R&O. But it is hard to say until it is published on
what they will do with the implementation date.

However, it could easily be 60 days from the announcement as it
may take up to 30 days to get published in the Federal Register and then
another 30 days for its implementation date.

Agreed.

In any event it's at least a month away. Maybe more.

73 de Jim, N2EY


However, I've got my VE team ready to handle extra applicants in Feb, Mar, &
Apr. It's better to have extra people on hand and not need them than to be
short.

Dee, N8UZE

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...

wrote:
On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800, wrote:


Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came
closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

he did not declare a winner

It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take
another 3 years...


While that is possible, it is much more likely (based on past history) that
it will be published in the Federal Register within 30 days of having been
posted on the FCC site. That would make it January 18 for publication. Then
it would normally be effective 30 days after that, which would make the
effectivity date February 17.

Or they may decide to get all their work caught up for the end of the year
and it could go into effect sooner.

Or they may want to push it through before the Democrats have control.

Either way, I've got my VE team lined up with additional members in case we
get an unusually large number of applicants in Feb, Mar, & Apr. After that
it should settle down to the normal or only slightly higher than normal
number of applicants.

Dee, N8UZE

Stock up on the no-doze and the baby wipes. You may have some long
sessions!

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

K4YZ wrote:
wrote:
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh......Hey Brain....

I HATE to ruin your rants with facts...HOWEVER....

Your "buddie's" post outnumber mine 15:1.

But you go right on trying to make folks believe otherwise.

Steve, K4YZ

So apologize and be done with it.

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came
closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

I don't know if the Report and Order has been published in the Federal
Register
yet. The new rules cannot become effective until at least 30 days after
that.
I have been told that because the Report and Order modifies an earlier
one
(the "omnibus" R&O), the delay will be 60 days rather than 30, but I'm
not
sure if that is true.


As of last Friday, it had not been published in the Federal Register.

Thanks, Dee.

That means Dec 26 at the earliest. Effective date Jan 26 at the
earliest.

Every day it's not in the Federal Register, the effective date moves a
day....

This
new Report and Order do not modify the "omnibus" R & O and stands
completely
on its own.

??

I thought it modifies the "omnibus" R&O by moving the automated data
segment on 80 meters to 3585-3600.

Whether that invokes a 60 day rule is another issue.


The way it reads sounds like it is being treated as a "new" ruling rather
than modifying the last R&O. But it is hard to say until it is published on
what they will do with the implementation date.

Agreed.

I'd bet on 30 days, not 60.

However, it could easily be 60 days from the announcement as it
may take up to 30 days to get published in the Federal Register and then
another 30 days for its implementation date.

Agreed.

In any event it's at least a month away. Maybe more.

However, I've got my VE team ready to handle extra applicants in Feb, Mar, &
Apr. It's better to have extra people on hand and not need them than to be
short.

Excellent!

There may also be a rush of folks in the next few weeks who want to
upgrade or be licensed *before* the changes take place.

73 de Jim, N2EY

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

John Smith I wrote:
wrote:
... There may also be a rush of folks in the next few weeks who want to
upgrade or be licensed *before* the changes take place.

73 de Jim, N2EY


May also be people who want to demonstrate they can swallow swords, pat
their bellies and rub their heads--at the same time!, play a kazoo, jump
rope, sing like 'ole blue eyes, roller skate, recite the gettysberg
address by heart, etc.

Busting a gut,
JS

Unfortunately, none of those things will help in obtaining an amateur
radio license of any kind. I'm likewise busting a gut, "John". There's
always someone who is up for a challenge.

"Gettysburg" Address, "John".

Dave K8MN

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Dave Heil wrote:
Unfortunately, none of those things will help in obtaining an amateur
radio license of any kind. I'm likewise busting a gut, "John". There's
always someone who is up for a challenge.

"Gettysburg" Address, "John".

Dave K8MN

And, FINALLY, neither will an autistic talent like "code tapping" assist
one in gaining an amateur ticket. Finally, CW is consigned to the trash
heap with sword swallowing--CW, a skill whose time has come, and gone ...

And, indeed, it could be stated that I am jealous of those who can tap
code at high speed. However, it felt as if I was just learning it to
get the ticket, would immediately attempt to forget it after, would
certainly NEVER use it, and was darn "pi$$ed off" at being forced to do
it just to get the dern ticket!!!

Regards,
JS

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

John Smith I wrote:
Dave Heil wrote:
Unfortunately, none of those things will help in obtaining an amateur
radio license of any kind. I'm likewise busting a gut, "John".
There's always someone who is up for a challenge.

"Gettysburg" Address, "John".

Dave K8MN

And, FINALLY, neither will an autistic talent like "code tapping" assist
one in gaining an amateur ticket.

Neither learning or using the Morse Code has ever been an "autistic
talent" in any way, "John". It is a developed skill, like typing,
shooting, batting, throwing or a myriad of other talents.

Finally, CW is consigned to the trash
heap with sword swallowing--CW, a skill whose time has come, and gone ...

Sorry, "John", Morse Code is not being consigned to any trash heap. It
is used daily in making thousands of contacts by radio amateurs.

And, indeed, it could be stated that I am jealous of those who can tap
code at high speed.

It could be.

However, it felt as if I was just learning it to
get the ticket, would immediately attempt to forget it after, would
certainly NEVER use it, and was darn "pi$$ed off" at being forced to do
it just to get the dern ticket!!!

Perhaps you just needed an attitude adjustment, "John". I learned it in
its most fundamental form, by the sound of each letter, in Scouting. I
learned higher speeds just in order to get an amateur ticket. I wasn't
going to let anything stand in the way of my obtaining an amateur radio
license. Finally, I used it, became better at it and enjoyed it. I've
been enjoying its use for over 43 years now. I'll be enjoying it long
after code testing goes away.

Regards,
JS

Dave K8MN

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Dave Heil wrote:
...
Dave K8MN

May the unwashed masses of chicken banders forever overload your yagi
with massive bleed over and horrendous harmonics; may they forever coat
your garage doors and house siding with crudely scrawled 10-codes! Let
your children be taught cb-ebonics in school ...

straight face
Regards,
JS

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

John Smith I wrote:
Dave Heil wrote:
...
Dave K8MN

May the unwashed masses of chicken banders forever overload your yagi
with massive bleed over and horrendous harmonics; may they forever coat
your garage doors and house siding with crudely scrawled 10-codes! Let
your children be taught cb-ebonics in school ...

Which yagi?

Most of 'em see the hides of other notorious CB scofflaws hanging on the
side of the barn and give this place a wide berth.

I heard a couple of vanity callsigned newbies on 160m SSB last night.
They were discussing whether the low inverted vee or the low dipole of
one of them was the better antenna for topband. I lump these characters
with the guys who are using a tuner through 150 feet of coaxial cable to
load a 75 meter dipole on 10m. They really don't know what they're missing.

Dave K8MN

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

SNIP
Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second
prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule
states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates
Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA".
Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be
late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect.

Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that
indicates some common sense, logic and respect.

Hey, a close second... :-)

Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did.

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth
or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new
rules.....

How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will
finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have
the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric
postings.

Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Bill K2UNK

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

wrote:
On 26 Dec 2006 19:20:19 -0800, wrote:


K4YZ wrote:
wrote:
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh......Hey Brain....

I HATE to ruin your rants with facts...HOWEVER....

Your "buddie's" post outnumber mine 15:1.

But you go right on trying to make folks believe otherwise.

Steve, K4YZ

So apologize and be done with it.

he can't he has dug himself in too deep

Sure he can. Any mature person can make an apology.

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Bill Sohl wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

SNIP
Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second
prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule
states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates
Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA".
Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be
late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect.

Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that
indicates some common sense, logic and respect.

Hello Bill!

Hey, a close second... :-)

Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date.

Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did.

Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my
first prediction almost three years ago.

When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL
website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought
that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years!

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth
or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new
rules.....

How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will
finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have
the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric
postings.

The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a
different game entirely.

I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O,
we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time.

Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out.

Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS
license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level
is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Agreed. And a better 2007!

73 de Jim, N2EY

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Bill Sohl wrote:

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Bill K2UNK

Hi, Bill. Merry RamaHannaQuanzMas and a Happy New Year to you!

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did.


indeed I assume it was someone pleasing the ARRL


More likely the FCC guys just ran out of other things to take care of,
and finally got around to it...

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote in
ups.com:

Bill Sohl wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So
who came closest? I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

SNIP
Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future
(second prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close
second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the
rule states "effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA". Which cannot be any earlier than January 19,
2007, and will probably be late February or even early March 2007
if the 60 day rule is in effect.

Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that
indicates some common sense, logic and respect.

Hello Bill!

Hey, a close second... :-)

Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date.

If only I had specified "announcement date", Bill would have won.

Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did.

Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my
first prediction almost three years ago.

When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL
website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought
that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years!

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth
or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the
new rules.....

How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will
finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have
the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric
postings.

The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a
different game entirely.

I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O,
we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time.

Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out.

Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS
license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level
is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap.

Hey Jim,

Hello Mike

Since I started using Xnews, rrap is nice and clean.

I shall look for Xnews. Been using Googlegroups and searching by
various words and callsigns. Still an incredible amount of noise.

I'm curious about the "moderated" version of rrap. Will it be fun
enough for the members?

Depends on what the members consider "fun".

I've seen enough in here to know that part of
the fun is in the namecalling.

For some. Not for me.

Even if one doesn't engage in it, they
probably get something out of it.

There *is* a certain satisfaction to pointing out when someone's
statements
are unsupported by facts and/or logic.

It just got way out of hand the past
year.

What I saw happen was a war of words in which a few would take over
every thread.

And regarding the pool, I still say let's not call it finished
until its finished.

I didn't call it finished. I simply said that AB2RC looks like the
winner.

If the effective date is July 2, 2007, you and AB2RC will be tied.
After that date, you'll be the frontrunner.

But July is a ways off. Even if it takes FCC 60 days to get the R&O in
the Federal Register, and even if the rules don't become effective
until 60 days after that, we're still talking late April or so. I think
it will happen a lot sooner.

The really interesting thing will be how the license numbers will be
affected.

Have a great New Year!

You, too. Straight Key Night starts on Sunday evening.

73 de Jim, N2EY

Change in ARS numbers
 

My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

Dee, N8UZE

Change in ARS numbers
 

Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY

Change in ARS numbers
 

wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.


Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would
you prefer to?

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although
cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY


Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be
pretty much done by 2010 one way or another. The "cell phone substitute"
hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number
of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of
course this could have varied in different parts of the country. Again, I
think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier
though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative
point in time in my opinion.

Dee, N8UZE

Change in ARS numbers
 

"Dee Flint" wrote

My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that
N2EY excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%

Speroni doesn't have final figures for December. Using November as a
baseline, there are 657k hams.

Since April '03 (43 months) there has been a net loss of 30k hams, or
roughly 700/mo.

A 1% loss would be 6600. 700*12=8400. Or, 1.25%

I would conclude that, on the face, your guess is probably accurate. I would
guess more 0 to -1%. I doubt you will see a positive 1% growth.



In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a
few that continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far
between.

I do not think you will see any "growth" at all.

I think numbers will continue to decline, and then "bottom out" at a minimum
number. Once that point is reached, the number will remain relatively the
same, +/- a few thousand, depending on renewal/expiration cycles. I do not
think you will see this happen until sometime around 2012.

73
KH6HZ

Change in ARS numbers
 

Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Dee Flint wrote:
My prediction is that on the one year anniversary of the implementation
that
the total numbers of of ARS licenses (excluding the categories that N2EY
excludes for consistency) will not differ from the numbers on the
implementation date by more than 1% either direction (plus or minus).

Let's spell it out:

One calendar year after Element 1 is completely removed as a US amateur
license requirement, the change in the number of current, unexpired
amateur radio licenses issued by FCC will be the following:

N8UZE: Between 1% less and 1% more
N2EY: Between 1% more and 2% more

When the change becomes effective, my postings to "ARS License Numbers"
will include comparisons to the effective date.


Sounds good to me. Shall I keep track of the people in the pool or would
you prefer to?

Be my guest, Dee. I'll take care of the ARS license numbers.

Anyone else? You can pick either "+" or "-" or "+/-". It must also be a
whole percentage not a fraction.

N8UZE, +/- 1%


In addition, it is my belief that "growth" won't really occur until the
"cell phone substitute" hams have let their license expire. Although
cell
phones have been around for awhile now, they didn't really get affordable
on
a family basis until roughly the year 2000. So that means little to no
growth until roughly the year 2010 in my opinion. At that time we will
also
see the last of the Novice licenses virtually disappear as they will
either
have upgraded or allowed their license to lapse. There may be a few that
continue to renew at that level but it will be few and far between.

I think the loss of "honeydew hams" will be more gradual.

Around here, their numbers really became significant in the early
1980s. Some went on to become much more involved in amateur radio,
others did not.

And IMHO, cell phone prices really began to drop about 1995 or so.

There were probably other effects from changes in the test
requirements, etc.

What all this means is that the expiration dates will be all over the
map. And not all will simply let the license expire, because it's so
easy to renew.

The AH0A website has listings of new and renewed licenses per month.
Will be interesting to see how those numbers change, too.

It has been six years and eight months since FCC stopped issuing new
Novice and Advanced licenses. In that time, we've seen a much more
dramatic drop in the number of Novices than in the number of Advanceds.
Whether that is due to expirations or upgrades is a good question.

In the case of Novices, however, the number is far above what would be
expected if the licenses were all simply expiring. Perhaps some Novices
are renewing with the idea of upgrading "someday".

73 de Jim, N2EY


Still the Novice drop is pretty steep. Either way, I think the drop will be
pretty much done by 2010 one way or another.

When I first read that, 2010 seemed a long long way off.

Now I realize it's only three years!

The "cell phone substitute"
hams are a little harder to get a handle on. In 1995, I knew a fair number
of people who had them BUT only one, not one for each family member. Of
course this could have varied in different parts of the country.

Yup. Main point it that it's not some hard-line date, but a gradual
effect.

Again, I
think that drop will be pretty much done by 2010 also. It could be earlier
though and that would be a good thing. I selected 2010 as a conservative
point in time in my opinion.

We shall see!

73 de Jim, N2EY

Change in ARS numbers Pool
 

Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION date
of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.


Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change.


Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a week,
it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked senders
list. You may still participate but you will have to have your guess
submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Dee, N8UZE

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

From: Dave Heil on Wed, Dec 27 2006 10:22 am

John Smith I wrote:
Dave Heil wrote:
Unfortunately, none of those things will help in obtaining an amateur
radio license of any kind. I'm likewise busting a gut, "John".
There's always someone who is up for a challenge.

"Gettysburg" Address, "John".

Dave K8MN

You didn't give the street or house number of that Gettysburg
address. How could you miss that? Tsk, tsk.

And, FINALLY, neither will an autistic talent like "code tapping" assist
one in gaining an amateur ticket.

Neither learning or using the Morse Code has ever been an "autistic
talent" in any way, "John". It is a developed skill, like typing,
shooting, batting, throwing or a myriad of other talents.

To those of us who entered the Big Leagues of HF Radio over
a half century ago, the "AUTISTIC TALENT" metaphor DOES
have CORRECT merit. That it bugs the **** out of you is
just too band, ainit? :-)

Note: "Metaphor" is NOT the same as "semaphore."

If you don't like others waving a metaphor around, TS on
you. It ain't no crime.

Finally, CW is consigned to the trash
heap with sword swallowing--CW, a skill whose time has come, and gone ...

Sorry, "John", Morse Code is not being consigned to any trash heap. It
is used daily in making thousands of contacts by radio amateurs.

Really? I thought RADIOS were needed first...?

You mean that ALL one needs is closing and opening a circuit
in the proper morse manner? Wow! What a mode!

Tell us what OTHER radio services still use morse code for
communications. [that should be easy...there ain't none]
Maritime radio was the first biggie user of radio and
nowadays they use Voice and Data...Voice on VHF in harbors
and inland waterways, on HF SSB on open ocean. Maritimers
began with morsemanship because that's all they had back
in the prehistory of radio. That changed. Maritimers
tossed morsemanship in the trash heap, the dumpster (those
are more metaphors, Dave, don't get all hissy fit on it).
Even the US CG stopped monitoring 500 KHz years ago.


However, it felt as if I was just learning it to
get the ticket, would immediately attempt to forget it after, would
certainly NEVER use it, and was darn "pi$$ed off" at being forced to do
it just to get the dern ticket!!!

Perhaps you just needed an attitude adjustment, "John". I learned it in
its most fundamental form, by the sound of each letter, in Scouting.

Wow! In Scouting! Oh, my, I was never in the Scouts.
My uniform was REAL and the first duty was "closing with
and destroying the enemy." shrug

Never learned any morsemanship in the Army...they weren't
teaching it to anyone but Field Radio MOS students then.
The US Military dropped morsemanship requirements for
military communications decades ago...

I learned higher speeds just in order to get an amateur ticket.

"Ticket?" To what? Ride the airwaves? See a performance
of some "No kids, no lids, no space cadet" morseman? To
see a sporting event featuring Nancy Kott (in golden gloves)
up against a no-coder? :-)

I never had to learn any morsemanship in 1952, 1962, 1972,
1982, 1992, 2002...for work or play. shrug

I got a Commercial radio operator license (First Class right
from the start) in 1956...a half century ago (plus a half year).
Helped get me started in Real radio (not with a bunch of
amateurs), earning a living and having lots of fun doing the
work.

I'd already worked three years on spanning the Pacific Ocean
on HF. With Big radio equipment. Amateur stuff would
somehow "teach me" such things via a federal amateur license?

I wasn't going to let anything stand in the way of my obtaining an amateur radio
license.

Wow! Big Dave doesn't let ANYTHING stand in HIS way! :-)

Big Dave is the Mighty Macho Morseman...unstoppable in his
refusual to recognize others having a different opinion
than his godly wisdom...

Finally, I used it, became better at it and enjoyed it. I've
been enjoying its use for over 43 years now.

How lovely! Something (finally) you are good at...and now
you want to keep forcing the code test on ALL newcomers
wanting below-30-MHz operating privileges!

So, whatever YOU enjoy is what EVERYONE ELSE should "enjoy?"

I'll be enjoying it long after code testing goes away.

Again, how lovely! Mighty Macho Morseman rides again with
the Four Morsemen of the Apocalypse!

["into the valley of dearth rode the four hundred..."]

I'll bet Big Dave will be "enjoying" morse long after he
has assumed room temperature... :-)

The Coroner will have to pry the code key from his cold,
dead fingers. Tsk, all that work imposed on government
officials...

5329,

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Dave Heil wrote:
...

I'd say this is a good time for all the good 'ole boys to remain silent,
just as some are showing the intelligence and doing.

The FCC made it clear that they recognize that code was being used as a
method to control the numbers of amateurs allowed 'in.' Seems as if
someone in the FCC even found the male organs big enough to face up to
the "crimes" which were being committed against "John Doe Citizen" in
depriving of access to radio with insanity.

It is funny. It now stands obvious, selfish and self-centered hams
became to believe the lies which they were spouting to maintain such a
corrupt scheme, now they have grown blind and spout on making fools of
themselves. Even, going to the lengths to argue against stone cold
logic--nothing short of amazing.

It just goes to show you the dangers, act like an idiot long enough and
you become one!

JS

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

Change in ARS numbers Pool - Guesses added 12/29/06
 

Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that
date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.


Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked
senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have your
guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more --- Added 12/29/06


Dee, N8UZE

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

"Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message
. ..
wrote in
ups.com:


I think after the dust settles the big issue will be grandfathering
Novices
and Advanceds to the next class up, i.e. tidying up the licence scheme.
and
of course I still want more phone on 40, 20 and 15, but it will be a while
before the FCC will get back to these things. Maybe petitions on these
things would be dismissed if they were filed right now, but later on they
might succeed.

As adamant as the FCC has been on this, it's very doubtful that
grandfathering will ever happen. They've made it plain that they consider
it reasonable for people to pass the written tests for the upgrades. In
addition, at the rate the Novice licenses are decreasing they will be all
but gone in less than 10 years anyway.

You may be somewhat right on the phone issue. Actually though I would
expect to see them try the band plan approach (ala Europe) rather than the
regulatory approach. Bad thing here is that it will be a major issue on a
contest day as the contest ops will expand to fill the whole band instead of
just part of the band for any given contest as they do now.


IOW, there are other outstanding issues, but IMHO things are moving in the
right direction.

I do wonder why this took 3 1/2 years. Maybe the large number of petitions
(18) and comments (zillions) had something to do with it. Maybe even Riley
had something to do with delaying it? Does he have that much influence?

73 de N3KIP

I'm firmly convinced that the number of petitions was a major hang-up on
processing this. Each petition had a slightly different spin and each had a
significant number of comments. The FCC staff had to digest all this and
come to an agreement on just what approach would be taken.

Dee, N8UZE

So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?
 

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
Dave Heil wrote:
...

I'd say this is a good time for all the good 'ole boys to remain silent,
just as some are showing the intelligence and doing.

The FCC made it clear that they recognize that code was being used as a
method to control the numbers of amateurs allowed 'in.' Seems as if
someone in the FCC even found the male organs big enough to face up to the
"crimes" which were being committed against "John Doe Citizen" in
depriving of access to radio with insanity.

It is funny. It now stands obvious, selfish and self-centered hams became
to believe the lies which they were spouting to maintain such a corrupt
scheme, now they have grown blind and spout on making fools of themselves.
Even, going to the lengths to argue against stone cold logic--nothing
short of amazing.

It just goes to show you the dangers, act like an idiot long enough and
you become one!

JS

Both sides of the argument have hurt ham radio. Both sides told major lies.
Those who said code was a "lid filter, "right of passage", etc were wrong.
Those who maintained code was too hard for the average person, outmoded,
being used to control the numbers, etc were wrong. BOTH SIDES played to
emotionalism.

It will take a lot of work to repair the damage caused by those on both
sides who used false arguments.

Dee, N8UZE