In article t, "Bill Sohl"
writes:

Good thing I never made the argument about code testing
being a barrier.

Agreed!

So we have to wonder why, even after almost four years, so many hams have not
upgraded. I can think of several reasons:

1) Perfectly happy with the license they have now
2) Don't know what's involved in upgrading
3) Dead, incapacitated, or completely inactive.
4) Haven't gotten around to it yet.
5) Waiting for the requirements to change yet again (for example, there was a
false rumor some time back that Advanceds would get a free upgrade to Extra)
6) Can't pass the written tests yet.

I expected the numbers of Advanceds and Tech Pluses to drop faster than they
have in the 43 months.

73 de Jim, N2EY

"N2EY" wrote in message
...
In article t, "Bill
Sohl"
writes:

Good thing I never made the argument about code testing
being a barrier.

Agreed!

So we have to wonder why, even after almost four years, so many hams have
not
upgraded. I can think of several reasons:

1) Perfectly happy with the license they have now
2) Don't know what's involved in upgrading
3) Dead, incapacitated, or completely inactive.
4) Haven't gotten around to it yet.
5) Waiting for the requirements to change yet again (for example, there
was a
false rumor some time back that Advanceds would get a free upgrade to
Extra)
6) Can't pass the written tests yet.

I expected the numbers of Advanceds and Tech Pluses to drop faster than
they
have in the 43 months.

Jim,

I agree all those reasons are valid...the difficulty is we have no
way of knowing the breakdown.

I think novice will dry up first...i.e. before Advanced.

Cheers,
Bill K2UNK

These are the number of unexpired FCC ARS
licenses held by individuals on the dates listed:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329
Tech - 205,394
Tech Plus - 128,860
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total - 674,792


As of December 15, 2003:

Novice - 32,792 (decrease of 16,537)
Technician - 259,563 (increase of 54,169)
Technician Plus - 63,689 (decrease of 65,396)
General - 141,431 (increase of 28,754)
Advanced - 82,092 (decrease of 17,690)
Extra - 104,798 (increase of 26,048)
Total - 684,140 (increase of 9,348)

73 de Jim, N2EY

These are the number of unexpired FCC ARS
licenses held by individuals on the dates listed:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329
Tech - 205,394
Tech Plus - 128,860
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total - 674,792


As of December 31, 2003:

Novice - 32,755 (decrease of 16,574)
Technician - 259,431 (increase of 54,037)
Technician Plus - 63,070 (decrease of 66,015)
General - 141,447 (increase of 28,770)
Advanced - 82,022 (decrease of 17,760)
Extra - 104,867 (increase of 26,117)
Total - 683,592 (increase of 8,800)

73 de Jim, N2EY

These are the number of unexpired FCC ARS
licenses held by individuals on the dates listed:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329
Tech - 205,394
Tech Plus - 128,860
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total - 674,792


As of January 15, 2004:

Novice - 32,718 (decrease of 16,611)
Technician - 259,949 (increase of 54,555)
Technician Plus - 62,714 (decrease of 66,146)
General - 141,443 (increase of 28,766)
Advanced - 81,961 (decrease of 17,821)
Extra - 104,946 (increase of 26,196)
Total - 683,731 (increase of 8,939)

73 de Jim, N2EY

These are the number of unexpired FCC ARS
licenses held by individuals on the dates listed:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329
Tech - 205,394
Tech Plus - 128,860
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total - 674,792


As of February 1, 2004:

Novice - 32,611 (decrease of 16,718)
Technician - 260,018 (increase of 54,624)
Technician Plus - 62,284 (decrease of 66,576)
General - 141,207 (increase of 28,530)
Advanced - 81,699 (decrease of 18,083)
Extra - 104,923 (increase of 26,173)
Total - 682,742 (increase of 7,950)

73 de Jim, N2EY

These are the number of unexpired FCC ARS
licenses held by individuals on the dates listed:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329
Tech - 205,394
Tech Plus - 128,860
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total - 674,792


As of February 15, 2004:

Novice - 32,541 (decrease of 16,788)
Technician - 260,212 (increase of 54,818)
Technician Plus - 61,993 (decrease of 66,867)
General - 141,124 (increase of 28,447)
Advanced - 81,565 (decrease of 18,217)
Extra - 104,978 (increase of 26,228)
Total - 682,413 (increase of 7,621)

73 de Jim, N2EY

Jim.

Thought you said there were 34,000 Novices the other day?

Also, take a look at the upcoming expirations in the next
6 months...some pretty hefty numbers of hams with
expirations coming up. I expect at least a 10K overall
reduction of licensed hams by end of 2004 based on
SK, lack of interest, etc. based on past renewal rates.

Cheers,
Bill K2UNK

"N2EY" wrote in message
...
These are the number of unexpired FCC ARS
licenses held by individuals on the dates listed:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice - 49,329
Tech - 205,394
Tech Plus - 128,860
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total - 674,792


As of February 15, 2004:

Novice - 32,541 (decrease of 16,788)
Technician - 260,212 (increase of 54,818)
Technician Plus - 61,993 (decrease of 66,867)
General - 141,124 (increase of 28,447)
Advanced - 81,565 (decrease of 18,217)
Extra - 104,978 (increase of 26,228)
Total - 682,413 (increase of 7,621)

73 de Jim, N2EY

In article et, "Bill Sohl"
writes:

Also, take a look at the upcoming expirations in the next
6 months...some pretty hefty numbers of hams with
expirations coming up.

All that means is that the dates when today's hams got their licenses are
not
evenly distributed. Renewal dates are driven by things like rules changes
and vanity gates.

True, but if the non-renewal rate is the same then I predict a total drop of
all hams by something on the order of 10K by year's end.

Perhaps. But where are your numbers, Bill? How many licenses were due to expire
in, say, 2003, vs. how many were renewed? (IOW, what % were renewed?)

I did some quick figuring and found that for 2003, for every 11 license
renewed, 1 was renewed in the grace period.

I expect at least a 10K overall
reduction of licensed hams by end of 2004 based on
SK, lack of interest, etc. based on past renewal rates.

Another WAG, Bill?

SWAG!

How about some numbers to back it up?

Note that even if a license is due to expire in, say, June
2004, there is a 27 month window during which it can be renewed. How do we
capture all of that?

True, but...
Look at Speroni's grace period renewals for the last few
years. No big numbers there.

For every 11 renewals there was 1 in the grace period.

Note also that despite huge numbers of actual expirations there have not been
big decreases in license totals.

Will any of the proposed rules changes make a difference in these trends?

73 de Jim, N2EY

"N2EY" wrote in message
...
In article et, "Bill
Sohl"
writes:

Also, take a look at the upcoming expirations in the next
6 months...some pretty hefty numbers of hams with
expirations coming up.

All that means is that the dates when today's hams got their licenses
are
not
evenly distributed. Renewal dates are driven by things like rules
changes
and vanity gates.

True, but if the non-renewal rate is the same then I predict a total drop
of
all hams by something on the order of 10K by year's end.

Perhaps. But where are your numbers, Bill? How many licenses were due to
expire
in, say, 2003, vs. how many were renewed? (IOW, what % were renewed?)

I did some quick figuring and found that for 2003, for every 11 license
renewed, 1 was renewed in the grace period.

I expect at least a 10K overall
reduction of licensed hams by end of 2004 based on
SK, lack of interest, etc. based on past renewal rates.

Another WAG, Bill?

SWAG!

How about some numbers to back it up?

The reduction in total licenses has been about 3K since
the high point some months back. As for going into any
real number crunching, I ask what for? You must have
more spare time than I do. My prediction is just that...
a prediction based on what I think has been the renewal
situation and the greater number of expirations that
Speroni shows will happen this year.

Note that even if a license is due to expire in, say, June
2004, there is a 27 month window during which it can be renewed. How do
we
capture all of that?

True, but...
Look at Speroni's grace period renewals for the last few
years. No big numbers there.

For every 11 renewals there was 1 in the grace period.

Note also that despite huge numbers of actual expirations there have not
been
big decreases in license totals.

Will any of the proposed rules changes make a difference in these trends?

If someone is SK, I doubt it.

Cheers,
Bill K2UNK