Observations:

- Although the majority of individuals who commented on the 18
proposals supported code testing, FCC proposes to completely
eliminate it.

- There were a lot of ideas in the 18 proposals other than the code
test. FCC simply denied all suggestions for change *except* dumping
Element 1. Free upgrades for Advanceds and Novices? New entry level
classes? More HF bandspace/modes for Novices and Tech Pluses? "No" to
all of them.

- The changes of 2000 brought a lot of upgrades and some short-term
growth, but now the number of individuals with unexpired US ham
licenses is almost 10,000 below what it was in May of 2000. Nor has
there been any sort of "techno-revolution" from the reductions in code
testing.


Predictions:

- There will be a lot of debate and commentary. But in the end FCC will
just dump Element 1 and make no other changes.

- There will be a lot of upgrades and a short-term peak in licenses.
But not long term growth.

- The HF/MF bands will not be overrun with more activity.

- There will not be a "revolution" in technology used by hams brought
by the new folks.

- The focus will shift to a debate about widening the 'phone subbands
or even having no mode subbands at all.


73 de Jim, N2EY