Jim Hampton wrote:

I personally am not concerned about code/no code.

Hello Jim, (from another Jim who used to live in
Wayne County).

Concerned or not, it seems FCC *really* wants to
dump Element 1. That's no surprise at all, given
the past 25-30 years or so.

My problem is how easy do
they wish to make the multiple guess test.

A key factor is which "they" you mean.

Several of the proposals asked for a new beginner
license. The scariest of those was the NCVEC idea,
which was derived from a paper titled "Amateur
Radio in the 21st Century". I wrote a rebuttal to
that paper which I sent to the authors, and also
posted here. Kinda long but it's detailed. You can
skip through the code test discussion and focus on
the written-test stuff, which says they think the
Tech is too hard for newcomers!

Other proposals (like the FISTS proposal) detail
how the written tests could be improved.

But FCC specifically denied all proposed changes
to the written exam structure and methods, and the
number of license classes in the NPRM. So the
writtens won't change much one way or the other.

Frankly, folks that don't have
to work for something seldom appreciate it.

Yup. It's called "investment", in the general
sense, not just money.

Didn't they find that out with welfare?

"Welfare" takes a lot of forms - corporate,
lifestyle, geographic, etc.

Of course if a behavior is rewarded, you tend to
get more of it.

Then again, I might be wrong.

Not really.

If you gave away the licenses with no test at all (no test
international?),
a lot of folks might well say "no" and a lot of the rest
wouldn't appreciate
it anyways.

FCC did that with a service called 'cb'. Look what happened.

Of course some folks will say that cb became a mess because
of overcrowding and/or lack of enforcement. IOW, they blame
everyone other than those actually breaking the rules.

--

But you are correct to be concerned. Back in 2000, when FCC
dropped all code testing except Element 1, they also reduced
the number and size of the written tests. The written test
reduction was dramatic, particularly for Technician and Extra.

Just watch. FCC will probably dump Element 1 regardless of
what the comment total works out to be in the end. They ignored
majority opinion in 2000 on how many code test speeds there should be,
and there's no requirement that FCC follow majority opinion on
anything.

I've predicted before that when Element 1 goes you'll see a flurry of
upgrades and some short-term growth - but no big
technological changes, nor sustained increases in the number
of hams.

Once all that settles down, you'll see renewed attacks on the *written*
tests from some folks, claiming the written tests
are obsolete, outmoded, too hard, unfair to handicapped people, etc.

Practically all of the objections to the code tests can be
modified for use against the writtens. In fact they have been -
read the "21st Century" paper.

73 de Jim, N2EY