IBOCcrock wrote:
On Nov 22, 3:40 pm, D Peter Maus wrote:
IBOCcrock wrote:
On Nov 22, 11:38 am, D Peter Maus wrote:
IBOCcrock wrote:
On Nov 21, 10:52 pm, D Peter Maus
wrote:
IBOCcrock wrote:
On Nov 21, 2:07�pm, "David Eduardo" wrote:
"IBOCcrock" wrote in message
...

On Nov 21, 2:00 pm, "David Eduardo"
wrote:
"D Peter Maus" wrote in
...

� �About 90% of the population still listens to the radio.
�Even those
with access to, and regular use of, other technologies.
Actually, it is over 95%. Roughly the same as it was in 1965.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020
Ah, you called Miss Cleo. Ask what Google stock will be at,
will you?
In the mid-60's, pundits said FM would never make it and radio
would die due
to TV. Those predictions are as accurate as yours. The
satellite numbers are
totally bogus, as sat radio has hit a brick wall on new
subscriptions and
the churn rate is huge after the free trial offers expire.
Poor argument - the 1960's didn't have cell phone/streaming,
Satellite
Radio, the Internet, Internet Radio, etc...no nearly the same
situation Bud!
What's not acknowledged is that FM failed. Twice.
Before it didn't. FCC mandates were in part responsible.
Don't underestimate the power of commitment.
There's been a huge investment in this technology. There's
been an
FCC mandate that all new modulation schemes be digital. And there's
been a half a billion dollars spent in promotion. The point is
not that
HD's success is assured, but rather that HD's demise is not assured
either. This is not going away anytime soon. It may go away, but
it's
far from over.
And the forces that have sway are in a good position to make it a
full-on madated conversion.
If you really want to fight this, you'll not be successful by
reporting it's premature demise.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
You keep repeating the same rhetoric over and over again.
I keep repeating the same points because you keep ignoring the most
important parts of the argument....1) regardless of the market
uptake of
this technology, the investors, the FCC and the stations involved are
committed to it. They may not be able to make it successful, but they
will not let it go easily. Even if IBOC goes no further than AM
stereo,
they're simply NOT going to let it go. Not after all the money that's
been spent.
If IBOC is to die, it will die slowly, and over a long period of
time.
Stations
will tire of the internal costs associated with running HD/IBOC, and
with no ROI ever possible from total consumer apathy, stations will
tire of paying the on-going fees to iBiquty. Stations refuse to
invest
in it, Gen Y thinks the concept is lauable, old consumers don't want
it, and retailers can't sell it.
All of which is true. But the boat is in the water. They're not
going
to just abandon ship. Not after all the costs of launch. Radio,
iBiquity, and yes, FCC, will hang onto this for as long as they think
they can turn it around. Remember, AM stereo was a dud, too. With
international uptake. And it took 20 years to die.
FM failed. Twice. The public didn't care. There was virtually no
uptake.
Look at it now.
Color TV took 15 years to catch on.
Look at it now.
We're only at the very beginning of the process marketing IBOC
technology. If it's not working, but there are enough people driving
this who think that it can be made successful, they'll keep flaying
the
horse until there's nothing left before they give up. And then blame
DXers for the failure.
Even if it cannot be made successful, IBOC will take years to die.
iBiquity has laid out a 5 to 8 year plan...near to a decade, just to
break even. Even if they hit the target, that's only the break even
point. From there, it will take years to build real growth. Or, if not
successful, it will take years for stations, and investors to give
up on
the money they've thrown at this issue and finally give up and go
away.
FM failed twice. And once it caught on, took nearly two decades to
become what it is. 40 years is a long time to keep swinging....and yet
FM, backed with a lot of creative thinking, and two FCC mandates
became
successful 4 decades after launch.
And the only one driving FM for the first 10 years was Edwin
Armstrong. There was no public interest. No industry interest. And no
FCC support.
IBOC has corporate involvement, industry support, and the FCC's
mandate that all new modulation schemes be digital.
It's not going to simply go away.
The FCC learned from the AM Stereo
debacle and will not mandate a shutoff of analog radio.
Don't count on that, either. They didn't learn anything from AM
Stereo. HDTV was supposed to be a market choice, too. Totally
voluntary
uptake. And no talk of turning off the NTSC broadcast until and unless
85% of each market had moved to digital TV. And this was to be done
market by market, allowing market forces to make the decisions.
Well, that didn't work. Public interest was low. And new digital
services wanted the spectrum. And they were willing to pay huge
dollars
for it.
So, there was an FCC mandate. And now digital TV uptake is
strong. I
just added an ATSC tuner to my own system. I now have digital
over-the-air TV. 30 channels of it. (without an HDTV--btw.) NTSC TV is
going away in a little over a year, and the uptake of digital TV
technology is brisk. Resulting in a faster conversion, improved
technology, and much lower prices.
IBOC offers the opportunity for more stations, conditional
access...read that 'subscription radio,'... FCC benefits with more
licensing and process fees...stations see an end to dictatorial
advertisers...they're highly motivated to make IBOC work. No matter
what
it takes. And what it may take is an FCC mandate.
Again, HDTV was to be market driven. FCC specifically said there
woudl be no HDTV mandate. Now, there's a mandate. Don't think it can't
happen with Radio. There are too many salivating to get it done for
that
not to be an option.
IBOC. It certainly doesn't look good now. You and I agree there.
The
public is not interested. Costs of implementation are a sore point for
broadcasters. iBiquity fees are absurd. We agree here.
And nobody is liking where this is going. Not the public. Not the
industry. We agree here, as well.
But there are too many historic examples of new technology
implemetation...even implementation badly executed...that have been
turned around by changing the rules.
FM benefitted from two FCC mandates. HDTV was mandated into life.
History has shown us that FCC can and will mandate what they
believe
needs to be mandated. Even if reversing previous decisions to do it.
And as far as the spectrum issue is concerned...digital
broadcasting
frees up more local spectra. More stations, more FCC revenues. They've
got a financial interest in this too.
And the MW broadcast band is being eyed for low bitrate digital
services. There is spectrum pressure in favor of IBOC, just as
there is
HDTV.
An FCC mandate is not out of the question.
So, take a step back and look at the bigger picture. IBOC isn't
working. You're right about that. We agree. This is a boondoggle. And
it's an expensive boondoggle.
But that's only the picture right now.
There is too much history to suggest that with this much support in
the industry, with this much money spent, with this much motivation on
the part of broadcasters AND FCC....there is just too much historic
evidence to make the claim that IBOC will just go away.
It may fail. But it will not just go away. It will peter out, and
peter out and peter out....just like AM Stereo...and it will take more
than a decade to do it.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
"regardless of the market uptake of this technology, the investors,
the FCC and the stations involved are committed to it... There is too
much history to suggest that with this much support in the industry,
with this much money spent, with this much motivation on the part of
broadcasters AND FCC....there is just too much historic evidence to
make the claim that IBOC will just go away. It may fail. But it will
not just go away. It will peter out, and peter out and peter
out....just like AM Stereo...and it will take more than a decade to do
it."
In response to you, here is the FCC's stance on HD/IBOC:
“4/4/07 - FCC: Market to Decide Fate of HD Radio�
"Other coverage of the FCC's decision notes that iBiquity, the
proprietor of HD Radio, reacted in a manner like they exhal[ed] a sigh
that's been held in for several years. Though it appears that the FCC
has stopped short of a full-on, enthusiastic endorsement of the
technology, it has removed all marketplace barriers to its
proliferation. I don't believe this is because the FCC thinks it's the
best DAB technology available, but it is the horse that the broadcast
industry has its money on. We'll now see whether that bet is a good
investment or not, and we'll be forced to learn the hard way whether
the technology's shortfalls are as egregious as feared. Marketplace
forces are not inexorable, and radio's digital transition will most
likely take a decade or more to really take hold."
http://www.diymedia.net/archive/0407.htm
You obviously need to do more research, before you hysterically blow
unsubstantiated opinions out of your arse. With no consumer interest
after at least two years (really 5 years since HD has been
broadcasting), HD/IBOC will never take-hold. The FCC is not interested
in freeing-up the broadcast bands, as with TV, for auction. Automakers
have no interest in HD/IBOC, just as with the general public - nothing
can force consumers or automakers to buy/install HD radios. Who in
hell cares about listening to radio anymore, except for radio-geeks,
and incidental listening to/from work.
iBiquity will be looking at exit stratagies in the near-futu
"IBiquity sees digital radio signaling changes to come"
"The company has yet to turn a profit and does not expect to do so in
2007 or 2008, Struble said... Mass marketing and consumer adoption is
the last hurdle, Struble said... Representatives of investment firms
that have spots on iBiquity's board of directors could not be reached
for comment, but Struble said they are excited about the progress the
company is making. The focus is not on exit strategies yet, he said."
http://tinyurl.com/3don5y
If you look at my blog, I have acquired far more HD/IBOC knowledge,
over 2 years, than you could ever dream about:
http://hdradiofarce.blogspot.com/
With all due respect, no, you don't.

By your ignorant rants, yes I do!



I was active in Broadcasting for 45 years. Started when I was 6. I've
seen a lot of things come and go. Including here in Chicago. I still
interface the broadcasting business every day.

I don't think ignorant is a word that applies.



Ok...reading everything here, we agree that IBOC/HD is a boondoggle.
You're point is that it can't be revived. My point is that it can't be
counted out. We agree that there's no market uptake of the technology,
and, as things are, no interest means no future.

We disagree on whether or not the end is in sight. You say yes, based
on current market. I say probably not, based on the vagaries of public
interests, commitment of the industry, and possible FCC involvement.

We don't disagree that it COULD be over. I see that as a possibility.
Where we diverge is on the commitment that's been made here and the
determination of the parties involved to make this technology a
standard, and a viable commercial entity. I see possibilities of
success, if the parties involved make significant changes to the
promotion of the technologies, and/or there is FCC involvement to
require either the technology be included in all future receivers, or
the end of analog broadcasting.

You say neither's going to happen. I say that history says
either/both may.

You say that IBOC is a failure and will vanish, sooner than later.

I say that EVEN IF IBOC is a failure it won't vanish anytime soon.

Is that about right? Is that the conflict that has you so vitriolic?
That we agree on the facts, but disagree on the future?



I'll put my 50 years of personal experience, history and
understanding of the history of the industry, up against your blogs.

Care to make a wager?