:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 February 2016

Solar activity reached low levels with only C-class flare activity
observed this period. Region 2506 (S05, L=224, class/area=110/Dai o
28 Feb) was responsible for nearly all flare activity this period
including three low-level C-class flares, the largest of which was a
C3/Sf flare at 0500 UTC on 27 Feb. A filament eruption centered near
S16E19 (vicinity of Region 2506) was observed in SDO/AIA imagery
between 0030-0130 UTC on 18 Feb but no associated coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery suggesting
the bulk of the plasma was reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 22-24 and 28 Feb with moderate levels observed
throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity briefly reached unsettled levels on 23-24
and 26 Feb with quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder
of the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 February - 26 March 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares on 29 Feb and 15-26 Mar. Solar activity is expected to
increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on 01-14 Mar due to the return of
old Region 2497 (N12, L=240) which produced four M-class flares last
rotation.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit barring any
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 15-22 Mar, moderate levels on
04-05, 07-08, 13-14, and 23-26 Mar, and at normal levels for the
remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 14-16 Mar and active levels on 01, 06,
and 17 Mar due to the effects of multiple recurrent coronal hole
high speed streams (CH HSSs). Quiet or quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic field conditions under a nominal solar wind regime are
expected for the remainder of the period.