"Al Lorona" wrote in
:


....
Another idea I had recently, but haven't found any records of this
method of tracking solar cycles anywhere on the net... perhaps you
might know. This idea was prompted by the observation that so far in
2009, if I'm not mistaken, the number of Cycle 23 sunspots outnumbers
the Cycle 24 sunspots, so the situation is even more dire when this is
considered. So the questions in my mind a

1/ Don't the Cycle 23 spots have to vanish completely before we can
even begin to say that we have entered the new cycle?

There are different criteria proposed by different people for the instant
that divides two cycles.


2/ If not, then how far into the new cycle are old spots allowed to
occur without casting doubt on the fact that the new cycle has begun
yet?

One criteria is the point in time (month?) when there are equal new
sunspots and old sunspots.


I looked all over for a plot of old spots superimposed on a plot of
new spots, so that I could get an idea of how long the overlap period
typically is. But this is the data that I couldn't find anywhere. Any
ideas?

The so-called butterfly diagram is of interest, see
http://sidc.oma.be/images/papi22c.png .

High latitude unspots are usually 'new cycle' sunspots.


I don't think we're past minimum yet. We might be in it right now, and
possibly for several more months. I say this despite the fact that
there have already been a number of Cycle 24 spots. This minimum is
looking like a double-minimum, ironically the inverse of the Cycle 23
double-maximum.

I think on many criteria, we are in cycle 24, fwiw.


Al W6LX

73
Owen

Owen Duffy wrote:
There are different criteria proposed by different people for the instant
that divides two cycles.

Which presupposes that an instant actually divides
two cycles. :-) My 130/85 blood pressure used to
be normal for my age. Now that exact same blood
pressure is pre-hypertensive even though I'm 20
years older. I've concluded that human concepts
create reality, not vice-versa. :-)
--
73, Cecil, IEEE, OOTC, http://www.w5dxp.com

"Cecil Moore" wrote:
I've concluded that human concepts
create reality, not vice-versa. :-)
--
73, Cecil, IEEE, OOTC, http://www.w5dxp.com

I know what you mean, Cecil. It used to be that marriage was between 1 man
and 1 woman...

Oops, that was off topic. Back to the subject at hand.

Owen, those butterfly patterns are neat. It's hard to tell, but it kind of
looks like old and new sunspots can overlap each other for maybe a year or
more! Wow. I didn't realize that. So maybe there still is hope. But I sure
wish Cycle 23 spots would go away.

Al W6LX

Cecil Moore wrote:
Owen Duffy wrote:
There are different criteria proposed by different people for the
instant that divides two cycles.

Which presupposes that an instant actually divides
two cycles. :-) My 130/85 blood pressure used to
be normal for my age. Now that exact same blood
pressure is pre-hypertensive even though I'm 20
years older. I've concluded that human concepts
create reality, not vice-versa. :-)


And they have just the medicine that will help you lower that
"potential" high blood pressure.

Dosing guidelines are keep taking it until you get dizzy and fall down
when you stand up.

The good news is we'll all live 15 years longer. The bad news is it will
be in a Nursing home, with Alzheimer's.

It's a math thing.

8^)

- 73 de Mike N3LI -