"Dee Flint" wrote in message

"Steve Bonine" wrote in message
...

[snip]

Keep in mind though that this also is not representative.
It is the older operators and retirees that have the time
and money to more actively participate in the hobby.

I know plenty of licensed people a lot younger than that who have plenty
of money to go on air but have simply lost interest. The internet has a
lot to do with it IMHO, this discussion for example would probably have
taken place on a packet radio BBS 10 to 15 years ago. Indeed I ran a
packet BBS for 11 years, when I started it in 1993 I had around 100 users,
when it closed in 2004 there were just three.

They have just introduced a lifetime licence here in the UK, which means
no more renewals will be necessary, although a licensee will have to
confirm every 5 years if they still want to retain the callsign. This will
still give a false impression of the number of people actually on the air,
though.

This is true in many activities. For example, the
average age of the members in the community band to which
I belong is also in about the 50 to 60 year old range.

Dee, N8UZE

There are also those who still hold licences but are inactive. Of the 20
or so people that I still keep in touch with from my old radio club, only
3 or 4 apart from me are still actively on the air, even though they still
hold callsigns, plus I'm the only one of those who still has 2m/70cm
equipment in the car. Age wise, most of them are anywhere between 30 and
50, with one or two approaching 60 and one who is 62.

Ivor G6URP

On Mar 11, 2:58?pm, Cecil Moore wrote:
wrote:
I agree! I invite and encourage you to collect the
postings I have made on the "ARS License Numbers",
put them in tabular form (say, monthly)
and put them on a website of your choice. They're
all in the Usenet archives, all posted by the same author (me).

May I suggest that they be put in an Excel spreadsheet
so that graphics may be generated?

Great idea, Cecil! Be my guest.

If my research is correct, the first "ARS License Numbers" posting I
made was back in September 2001, comparing the numbers of September 22
2001 to those of May 14, 2000.

73 es TNX de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
On Mar 10, 9:32�pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
"Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
ups.com...
[snip]
Total all classes - increase of 89
---
73 de Jim, N2EY
Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.

Here are some really rough calculations for my area:


Presently licensed in the State College area:

231 - I'll have to subtract 3 club licenses

229 local State College Hams

In the past 6 months, we've had around 2 hams per month added by club
testing. Note that this includes testing under the old system.

The local University also has testing as part of one of the EE classes.
I don't have the exact numbers, or even close. They test by semester.

Given that about 12 hams have been added to the rosters by us in the
last 6 months there is at least a 1 percent growth rate - disregarding
the college group. Taking a rough estimate, they must be doing at least
as well, as the classes continue. My guess is that the final growth in
this area is around 2 percent. That is as just about at the top of the
growth that I would like to see.


We often speak of the effects that recent changes will have on the
number of new Hams coming into the fold.

I think this is a bit of a red herring attribute.

I think that growth in the service is much more dependent on what we do
to get people into it.

We've been on a recruitment effort that allows the new guys and gals to
not feel inadequate. We're teaching real basics, like how to solder, how
to read color codes on resistors. That kind of stuff. Oh yeah, and how
to operate that HF rig. I'm our club station manager, and we're turning
one corner of the building into a classroom for the new folks. And we're
being very careful to not sound like we know everything. (I don't have
to work too hard at that) ;^)

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

On Mar 14, 4:27�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:
On Mar 10, 9:32?pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
* * * * "Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
groups.com...
[snip]
Total all classes - increase of 89
---
73 de Jim, N2EY
Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% *growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

However, it is foolish to look at short-term results and
assume they will continue. Day-to-day variations can be quite
large.

For example, the most recent numbers I have at hand are
for March 12, 2007. Total current FCC-issued licenses
on that date (as of 7 PM March 13) were 654,331. That's
349 less than the 654,680 on Feb 22. Of course tomorrow's
numbers may be much higher.

But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.

Here are some really rough calculations for my area:

Presently licensed in the State College area:

231 - I'll have to subtract 3 club licenses

229 local State College Hams

In the past 6 months, we've had around 2 hams per month added by club
testing. Note that this includes testing under the old system.

OK so far.

The local University also has testing as part of one of the EE classes.
I don't have the exact numbers, or even close. They test by semester.

* * * * Given that about 12 hams have been added to the rosters by us in the
last 6 months there is at least a 1 percent growth rate - disregarding
the college group. Taking a rough estimate, they must be doing at least
as well, as the classes continue. My guess is that the final growth in
this area is around 2 percent. That is as just about at the top of the
growth that I would like to see.

That's all good stuff - for the State College area.

But it may or may not be applicable to other areas. We really don't
know for sure.

* * * * We often speak of the effects that recent changes will have on the
number of new Hams coming into the fold.

* * * * I think this is a bit of a red herring attribute.

* * * * I think that growth in the service is much more dependent on what we do
to get people into it.

I agree 100%.

However, in recent decades, one of the main reasons given for
changing the license test requirements has been to stimulate
growth. Time and again, those pushing for the changes have
said they were absolutely necessary in order for the number
of US hams to grow in the future. So it's certainly worth watching
to see whether they were right or wrong.

We've been on a recruitment effort that allows the new guys and gals to
not feel inadequate. We're teaching real basics, like how to solder, how
to read color codes on resistors. That kind of stuff. Oh yeah, and how
to operate that HF rig. I'm our club station manager, and we're turning
one corner of the building into a classroom for the new folks. And we're
being very careful to not sound like we know everything. (I don't have
to work too hard at that) ;^)

This is all good stuff.Excellent work, Mike!

73 de Jim, N2EY

Hi,

I wouldn't expect ham numbers to climb dramatically but I would expect
to see the Amateur Extra class increase in proportion so that it will
be the majority of ***active*** hams, ie active hams seeking out the
highest privilege level, this is typically what has happened in other
countries that kept multiple tier licenses after 2003. Amateur radio
growth is limited by the internet. We call relatives in Australia via
Skype and don't think twice about it, the world is a smaller place and
the excitement of radio contact is less.

That being said, I'm a new Extra and am just setting up a station.

As for the numbers, I passed my Extra on March 4th and I'm still a
General in ULS, so be patient on the numbers.

Thank you for your effort.

On Mar 14, 7:14 pm, wrote:
On Mar 14, 4:27�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:



wrote:
On Mar 10, 9:32?pm, (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article ,
"Dee Flint" writes:

wrote in message
groups.com...
[snip]
Total all classes - increase of 89
---
73 de Jim, N2EY
Well if we continue at this pace, that will mean 0.35% growth in one year.

Which fits right into my prediction of 0% to 1% growth!

And I'll take 0.35% growth over a decline.

However, it is foolish to look at short-term results and
assume they will continue. Day-to-day variations can be quite
large.

For example, the most recent numbers I have at hand are
for March 12, 2007. Total current FCC-issued licenses
on that date (as of 7 PM March 13) were 654,331. That's
349 less than the 654,680 on Feb 22. Of course tomorrow's
numbers may be much higher.





But what is completely unknown at this point is whether the growth
will continue. After the 2000 restructuring, the license numbers
climbed for about three years - and then began to decline, until now
they are well below what they were before the restructuring of 2000.

Here are some really rough calculations for my area:

Presently licensed in the State College area:

231 - I'll have to subtract 3 club licenses

229 local State College Hams

In the past 6 months, we've had around 2 hams per month added by club
testing. Note that this includes testing under the old system.

OK so far.

The local University also has testing as part of one of the EE classes.
I don't have the exact numbers, or even close. They test by semester.

Given that about 12 hams have been added to the rosters by us in the
last 6 months there is at least a 1 percent growth rate - disregarding
the college group. Taking a rough estimate, they must be doing at least
as well, as the classes continue. My guess is that the final growth in
this area is around 2 percent. That is as just about at the top of the
growth that I would like to see.

That's all good stuff - for the State College area.

But it may or may not be applicable to other areas. We really don't
know for sure.

We often speak of the effects that recent changes will have on the
number of new Hams coming into the fold.

I think this is a bit of a red herring attribute.

I think that growth in the service is much more dependent on what we do
to get people into it.

I agree 100%.

However, in recent decades, one of the main reasons given for
changing the license test requirements has been to stimulate
growth. Time and again, those pushing for the changes have
said they were absolutely necessary in order for the number
of US hams to grow in the future. So it's certainly worth watching
to see whether they were right or wrong.

We've been on a recruitment effort that allows the new guys and gals to
not feel inadequate. We're teaching real basics, like how to solder, how
to read color codes on resistors. That kind of stuff. Oh yeah, and how
to operate that HF rig. I'm our club station manager, and we're turning
one corner of the building into a classroom for the new folks. And we're
being very careful to not sound like we know everything. (I don't have
to work too hard at that) ;^)

This is all good stuff.Excellent work, Mike!

73 de Jim, N2EY

On Mar 16, 10:31�pm, wrote:
Hi,

I wouldn't expect ham numbers to climb dramatically but I would expect
to see the Amateur Extra class increase in proportion so that it will
be the majority of ***active*** hams, ie active hams seeking out the
highest privilege level, this is typically what has happened in other
countries that kept multiple tier licenses after 2003.

Maybe - but I doubt it will happen.

Back in 2000 the FCC reduced both the written and Morse Code
testing. Anyone who held a Morse Code tested license could upgrade
to Extra with just some written testing - and the amount of written
testing was reduced too.

Yet here it is seven years later and several hundred thousand hams
hold General and Advanced licenses. Surely they aren't all inactive.
They just haven't gotten around to passing the written tests yet.

*Amateur radio
growth is limited by the internet. *We call relatives in Australia via
Skype and don't think twice about it, the world is a smaller place and
the excitement of radio contact is less.

I think that depends on why someone wants to be a radio amateur.

IMHO, there are three basic motivations to being a ham:

1) Operating radios

2) Messing around with technology

3) Communicating electronically

Most hams are motivated by a mixture of these three. Their
relative importance varies with the person.

There was a time when the average person's options for
electronic/electric communication were very limited. Those
days are long gone - not just because of the internet but
because of lowcost cell phones and long distance calling.
So those who are primarily motivated by 3) aren't going to
be hams any more.

But 1) and 2) are still going strong. The big difference is
that they represent the individual doing something that is
*independent* of a big commercial network. Being an
operator, not a user.

It's a bit like the difference between flying a plane yourself
and riding in an airliner. Both get you there, and the
airliner is almost certainly faster, safer and less expensive.
But it's not the same thing. Ask any pilot.

What amateur radio is really all about today is "radio for
its own sake". Radio as an end in itself, not a means to
an end.

That being said, I'm a new Extra and am just setting up a station.

Congratulations and welcome! I hope to work you on the air.

As for the numbers, I passed my Extra on March 4th and I'm still a
General in ULS, so be patient on the numbers.

Yup. It will take a while for the dust to settle. The big hamfest/VE
session season is only just beginning.

Thank you for your effort.

You're welcome. Next set of numbers will be in a week or so,
then once a month after that, on or around the 23rd of the month.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
IMHO, there are three basic motivations to being a ham:
1) Operating radios
2) Messing around with technology
3) Communicating electronically

(4) Was motivated in the past by one or more of the
above but now just continues to renew his/her ham
license while operating cell phones, sending emails,
and posting to r.r.a.* groups. :-)
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com

"Cecil Moore" wrote in message
...
wrote:
IMHO, there are three basic motivations to being a ham:
1) Operating radios
2) Messing around with technology
3) Communicating electronically

(4) Was motivated in the past by one or more of the
above but now just continues to renew his/her ham
license while operating cell phones, sending emails,
and posting to r.r.a.* groups. :-)
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com


In my opinion there is another motivator. To me, the main fascination is
being able to communicate without the need for any infrastructure. All I
need is my radio, the stuff to make a basic dipole, a source of power, and
my mike or key. Nothing ties us together except the ionosphere. On top of
all that, when conditions are moderately good, it can be done with
relatively small amounts of power. i.e. It is the ability to basically do
this independently.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
In my opinion there is another motivator. To me, the main fascination is
being able to communicate without the need for any infrastructure.

Good luck at being in the right place at the right
time when all other infrastructure fails. I've been
a coded ham for 55 years and have yet to use CW for
any emergency communications. The only HF emergency
communications I ever needed to use was CB.
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com

"Cecil Moore" wrote in message
t...
Dee Flint wrote:
In my opinion there is another motivator. To me, the main fascination is
being able to communicate without the need for any infrastructure.

Good luck at being in the right place at the right
time when all other infrastructure fails. I've been
a coded ham for 55 years and have yet to use CW for
any emergency communications. The only HF emergency
communications I ever needed to use was CB.
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com


I did not mention or imply anything to do with emergency communications or
CW. I merely stated that the fascinating part was to be able to contact
people without the need for an infrastructure. There is a feeling of
independence from being able to, as an individual, communicate around the
world.

Dee, N8UZE