On Feb 25, 12:09 am, Mike Coslo wrote:

We are testing and
granting licenses at a pretty good clip. I don't have the numbers handy,
Anyone out there have them?

Easy - just go to

http://www.hamdata.com/fccinfo.html

For example, in the last 365 days FCC has licensed 27,211 new
amateurs.

I think we won't really know until around 7 to 10 years have passed.

Complicated by the fact that the rules are rarely left alone for
anywhere near that long.

Consider the past 25 years or so:

~1983: VE system created; question pools become public, license terms
doubled to 10 years
1987: Old General/Tech Element 3 split into 3A and 3B, making it
easier to get a Tech
~1990: Morse Code test waivers make any class license available with 5
wpm and a doctor's note.
1991: Technician loses its code test.
~1994:Vanity call program
2000: Restructuring reduces number of available-to-new-issue license
classes from 6 to 3 and reduces both code and written testing for all
classes
2006: HF 'phone bands widened, particularly 75 meters.
2007: Morse Code test eliminated.

On top of all that is the "anticipation effect". It takes FCC a long
time to make up its mind, and that delay can have effects of its own.
(If you were thinking of buying something and heard there would be a
big sale next month, wouldn't you tend to put off the sale until
then? Or if you heard the price was going to rise significantly,
wouldn't you tend to buy right now?) The treaty requirement for Morse
Code testing changed in July 2003 but it took FCC more than 3-1/2
years to get around to changing the rules. Could it be that there were
some folks waiting for the change to take place?

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
On Feb 25, 12:09 am, Mike Coslo wrote:
We are testing and
granting licenses at a pretty good clip. I don't have the numbers handy,
Anyone out there have them?

Easy - just go to

http://www.hamdata.com/fccinfo.html

For example, in the last 365 days FCC has licensed 27,211 new
amateurs.

And that isn't too bad. It also illustrates the extent of the falloff
that those 27K only makes for a small increase in the total. Just
something we have to live with for a few years.


I think we won't really know until around 7 to 10 years have passed.

Complicated by the fact that the rules are rarely left alone for
anywhere near that long.

Consider the past 25 years or so:

~1983: VE system created; question pools become public, license terms
doubled to 10 years

That 10 year thing is the direct precursor to the present dropoff. Of
course it just delayed the start by 5 years 8^)




On top of all that is the "anticipation effect". .......
.......... Could it be that there were
some folks waiting for the change to take place?

Absolutely! I know several myself, and as a VE, I expect to hear from
more in the future. I had hoped that once the requirement was dropped,
that they would not have waited so long to implement it.

- 73 de Mike N3LI -