I've been following the various political debates this election year,
and the whole $700 billion bailout mess. How it happened, how to fix
it, who is to blame, etc. From all that, it seems to me that we're
looking at some pretty lean economic times ahead.

But this isn't really a post about politics or economics. It's about
their effect on ham radio, specifically, growth in our numbers.
Looking back of the history of US ham radio, it seems to me that the
worst economic times were the best for US ham radio growth.

Consider that:

In the 1920s, the number of licensed US hams grew very slowly, if at
all, despite the new technologies of tubes and short waves. By 1929
there were only about 18,000 licensed US amateurs, not much more than
in 1920. The Roaring '20s radio boom was in broadcasting, whose
development has many parallels to that of the internet in the '90s and
'00s.

Then in 1929 came two major changes for US hams. First were the "1929
regulations" that greatly narrowed the US ham bands and required much
cleaner signals than before. A lot of existing transmitters had to be
extensively modified if not completely rebuilt to meet the new rules,
and hams on bands like 40 and 20 were crowded into much less spectrum
than before. (In those days the ham bands were far fewer than today,
and simply getting a transmitter to work well on one band was a
challenge). For example, 40 was reduced in width from 1000 kHz to 300,
20 was reduced from 2000 kHz to 400.

Later in 1929 the stock market crashed and the Great Depression began.
Hard times lasted all through the 1930s. There was also the Dust Bowl
that displaced large numbers of Americans from their farms. (May we
never see such hard times again!)

Yet from 1929 to 1937 the number of licensed US hams almost tripled.
In percentage terms it was the time of the greatest growth US amateur
radio has ever seen.

As prosperity began to return in the late 1930s, the growth slowed
down. WW2 shut down US amateur radio for the first half of the 1940s.
When the war ended, there was rapid growth despite all the disruption
of the war, plus rising prices and shortages in the postwar economy as
wage and price controls were removed. Of course a big part of that
growth was from people who had put off becoming hams during the war,
and later from the restructuring of 1951 that created the Novice
license. But in the five years from VJ Day to the beginning of 1951,
the number of US hams almost doubled, passing 100,000 in the process.

The 1960s were good economic times, yet through that decade US amateur
radio growth was almost nil, similar to the 1920s. The radio boom in
the 1960s was in cb, not amateur radio.

Then in 1968 the new "incentive licensing" regulations came into
effect, and in the 1970s problems of inflation, high interest rates,
unemployment, energy crises and lack of economic growth hit the US
economy very hard. Just look at gasoline prices - less than a quarter
a gallon for cheap gas in 1969, a dollar and a half ten years later.
It wasn't until the mid-1980s that things really stabilized.

Yet all through the 1970s and into the 1980s the number of US hams
grew steadily, from about 270,000 in 1969 to about twice that number
in the mid-1980s.

Since the early 1990s until today, we've had (at best) slow growth in
the number of US hams, and (at worst) a decline, even though the price
of a ham rig in inflation-adjusted dollars has decreased greatly and
the licenses are far easier to earn. The boom in these years has been
in "wireless" (an old term reused!) rather than amateur radio.

The only exception to the pattern of hard times = ham radio growth I
can find is the 1950s, which were economic good times (at least the
later 1950s). In that decade the growth of the late 1940s continued
steadily, so that by the early 1960s there were about 250,000 licensed
US hams. Besides the then-new Novice license, the 1950s were a time
when there was lots of WW2 surplus radio gear available at bargain
prices. It was also the heyday of inexpensive but decent quality kit
rigs from Heath, Johnson, Eico and others. The highest sunspot peak in
recorded history happened in 1958, and the Cold War caused a lot of
interest in civil defense communications by hams.

Perhaps the connection is that, in hard economic times, people's
recreation shifts away from going out, traveling, and making big
purchases, and changes to things they can do hunkered down at home for
a little money and a lot of ingenuity. Certainly most of the ham
stations of the 1930s fit that description. While new ham gear and a
big station are expensive, a small homebrew or used-equipment station
with a simple antenna can provide very good results if used with
skill, patience and there are decent conditions.

What do others think? Could we be in for another time of growth for US
ham radio? The Dow is down, house prices are down, credit is tight and
taxes are just about guaranteed to rise. But sunspots are on the
way....

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:

Consider that:

I believe that some of the cyclic activity you note is related to folks
being drafted into the military and coming out with radio skills that
were almost directly transferable to personal use in amateur radio.

Another item could be the availability of surplus military gear or a
technology shift that made it easier for people to get into amateur radio.

I'm sure hard times also has the effect you describe.

wrote in message
...
I've been following the various political debates this election year,
and the whole $700 billion bailout mess. How it happened, how to fix
it, who is to blame, etc. From all that, it seems to me that we're
looking at some pretty lean economic times ahead.

But this isn't really a post about politics or economics. It's about
their effect on ham radio, specifically, growth in our numbers.
Looking back of the history of US ham radio, it seems to me that the
worst economic times were the best for US ham radio growth.

Consider that:

In the 1920s, the number of licensed US hams grew very slowly, if at
all, despite the new technologies of tubes and short waves. By 1929
there were only about 18,000 licensed US amateurs, not much more than
in 1920. The Roaring '20s radio boom was in broadcasting, whose
development has many parallels to that of the internet in the '90s and
'00s.

Then in 1929 came two major changes for US hams. First were the "1929
regulations" that greatly narrowed the US ham bands and required much
cleaner signals than before. A lot of existing transmitters had to be
extensively modified if not completely rebuilt to meet the new rules,
and hams on bands like 40 and 20 were crowded into much less spectrum
than before. (In those days the ham bands were far fewer than today,
and simply getting a transmitter to work well on one band was a
challenge). For example, 40 was reduced in width from 1000 kHz to 300,
20 was reduced from 2000 kHz to 400.

Later in 1929 the stock market crashed and the Great Depression began.
Hard times lasted all through the 1930s. There was also the Dust Bowl
that displaced large numbers of Americans from their farms. (May we
never see such hard times again!)

Yet from 1929 to 1937 the number of licensed US hams almost tripled.
In percentage terms it was the time of the greatest growth US amateur
radio has ever seen.

As prosperity began to return in the late 1930s, the growth slowed
down. WW2 shut down US amateur radio for the first half of the 1940s.
When the war ended, there was rapid growth despite all the disruption
of the war, plus rising prices and shortages in the postwar economy as
wage and price controls were removed. Of course a big part of that
growth was from people who had put off becoming hams during the war,
and later from the restructuring of 1951 that created the Novice
license. But in the five years from VJ Day to the beginning of 1951,
the number of US hams almost doubled, passing 100,000 in the process.

The 1960s were good economic times, yet through that decade US amateur
radio growth was almost nil, similar to the 1920s. The radio boom in
the 1960s was in cb, not amateur radio.

Then in 1968 the new "incentive licensing" regulations came into
effect, and in the 1970s problems of inflation, high interest rates,
unemployment, energy crises and lack of economic growth hit the US
economy very hard. Just look at gasoline prices - less than a quarter
a gallon for cheap gas in 1969, a dollar and a half ten years later.
It wasn't until the mid-1980s that things really stabilized.

Yet all through the 1970s and into the 1980s the number of US hams
grew steadily, from about 270,000 in 1969 to about twice that number
in the mid-1980s.

Since the early 1990s until today, we've had (at best) slow growth in
the number of US hams, and (at worst) a decline, even though the price
of a ham rig in inflation-adjusted dollars has decreased greatly and
the licenses are far easier to earn. The boom in these years has been
in "wireless" (an old term reused!) rather than amateur radio.

The only exception to the pattern of hard times = ham radio growth I
can find is the 1950s, which were economic good times (at least the
later 1950s). In that decade the growth of the late 1940s continued
steadily, so that by the early 1960s there were about 250,000 licensed
US hams. Besides the then-new Novice license, the 1950s were a time
when there was lots of WW2 surplus radio gear available at bargain
prices. It was also the heyday of inexpensive but decent quality kit
rigs from Heath, Johnson, Eico and others. The highest sunspot peak in
recorded history happened in 1958, and the Cold War caused a lot of
interest in civil defense communications by hams.

Perhaps the connection is that, in hard economic times, people's
recreation shifts away from going out, traveling, and making big
purchases, and changes to things they can do hunkered down at home for
a little money and a lot of ingenuity. Certainly most of the ham
stations of the 1930s fit that description. While new ham gear and a
big station are expensive, a small homebrew or used-equipment station
with a simple antenna can provide very good results if used with
skill, patience and there are decent conditions.

What do others think? Could we be in for another time of growth for US
ham radio? The Dow is down, house prices are down, credit is tight and
taxes are just about guaranteed to rise. But sunspots are on the
way....

73 de Jim, N2EY


I don't buy it.

1. Human beings are resourceful
2. Junk is always plentiful, as is used gear.
3. Some people don't get on the air without ready-made station solutions
3. A segment of the population is always on hard times
4. A segment of the population is always wealthy beyond their need
5. No shortage of things for people to do with their down time.

I find it hard to draw any conclusion from any publicized event without
considering the many variables that have a far greater impact. It is just
too hard to link such things together to establish some kind of domino
effect. Certainly the loss of a house AND car AND ability to charge
batteries would put a ham off the air, but short of that, would more people
be on the air, or watching TV, or doing job searches, or buying surplus
parts and equipment on ebay while unemployed? Certainly the market in gear
is down to the point that you can get a used full-featured rig for much less
than a weeks pay, so there is little reason to sell a radio to pay the rent.
More likely to sell the radio to make room, or because the wife put her foot
down. I would look instead to other causes and effects more closely related
to why people were or were not, participating in ham radio rather than
trying to draw a line from some universal situation to overall numbers.
This is the stuff of conspiracy theorists.

One thing I noticed from the 70's to present, was the Exodus of Aerospace
jobs from this area. When work was plentiful for those prone to be hams,
and lots of surplus/cheap building materials were available, there were a
whole lot of hams around because there were a whole lot of people interested
and employed in electronic technology. Many were hams because they knew
hams, but had a variety of other techno- hobbies as well. Hams were even
preferred as employees, because it was an indication of ingenuity that would
often rub off on the job. During that time, I was a ham, working for hams,
and it led to an incredible advantage due to the cohesiveness of the team
and from pooling of knowledge and experience. After this era, I began to
find that more hams were into some specific aspect of radio operations
rather than technology. I suspect the normal number of dedicated radio
operators were always there, but at one point, there were also a great deal
of electronics experimenters who had a greater variety of interests. These
days, parts supplies have virtually dried up, and even radio shack hardly
has enough stock to do more than install a car stereo. What swap meets
continue have turned mostly to computer surplus.

Also, it is interesting to note that the choice of the word "Bailout" is a
poor choice of words to work with. It implies throwing money on a problem
by large cash giveaway. It could just as well be a hostile takeover by the
government by exploitation of a perceived crisis. Since the government
isn't about to go out of business, it can impart stability by assuming risks
and securing assets that will eventually recover for a great profit to the
government, so this could actually offset or reduce taxes to the public over
a 5 year period. There must be sufficient safeguards in place though. We
really don't want to go communist, because without private sector ingenuity,
risk and free competition, stagnation and shortages invariably follow.

On Oct 3, 10:38 am, Steve Stone wrote:
wrote:
Consider that:

I believe that some of the cyclic activity you note is related to folks
being drafted into the military and coming out with radio skills that
were almost directly transferable to personal use in amateur radio.

Well, maybe, particularly after WW2.

But note that after WW1 there was no great rise in the number of US
hams, yet the Depression years and the 1970s saw amateur population
explosions. (Indeed, the post-WW2 times were an actual population
explosion now known as the baby boom...). Veterans who learned radio
in the military during WW2 or Korea may have contributed to amateur
growth, of course, but the post-WW2 growth went on for many years
after those conflicts ended. More importantly, a lot of it was people
too young to have served in the military when first licensed as
amateurs.

Another item could be the availability of surplus military gear or a
technology shift that made it easier for people to get into amateur ra
dio.

Certainly a factor, as mentioned in my original post. In the 1930s,
there was "surplus" in the form of inventory from failed radio
manufacturers, while surplus from WW2 was still inexpensive and widely
available 30+ years after the war ended. But the growth of the 1970s
wasn't fueled by surplus radio gear, IMHO.

It would seem that technology shifts would work against growth,
because the new stuff would cost more and not be available used or
surplus. It is possible that one major reason for the lack of growth
in the 1960s was the popularity of SSB among hams, because SSB gear
cost more and was generally more complex than AM. The 1970s-80s boom
coincides with the rise of VHF-UHF FM and repeater use by hams, which
started out with conversions of surplus land-mobile equipment and
simple homebrew stuff.

I'm sure hard times also has the effect you describe.

Correlation isn't necessarily causation, but where can you get more
fun-per-dollar than ham radio?

73 de Jim, N2EY