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Jeff Davis[_4_] · **July 22 2009 ARS License Numbers**

On 2009-08-03, wrote:

Yes, one occasionally sees some number or other quoted for the "average
age", but not how it was derived. FCC doesn't have complete data
because they haven't consistently required birthdate info.

That is true and any evidence is purely anecdotal. But we can make a few
assumptions based on the bubble of the 1950s when the growth of the amateur
service was meteoric. With the exception of those hams who were licensed as
pre-teens, most of the others would be past retirement age by now.

The same is now becoming true of those licensed in the 60s so while I have
no evidence or hard data, I think it is safe to say that the majority of
licensed radio amateurs in the US are now over 60 years old.

You are correct that folks are living longer these days and that will no
doubt work in our favor, but it is inevitable that we will begin losing hams
in much greater numbers as we approach 2020.

ARRL membership has been growing, too.

That has been a bright spot, in my opinion, but I only point it out because
some League detractors use the old line that the ARRL can only attract 25%
of licensed hams as an argument for how unpopular Newington is among the
base. I'd argue that it better reflects the actual number of active radio
amateurs since those who are no longer active would not likely maintain
league membership and the most active among us invariably do.

As for paltry gains, if my math is right, the past 2-1/2 years have
yielded growth of more than 2.8%. More important, the growth rate seems
to be increasing. Imagine the possibilities when the sunspots come
back...

I'm all for growth since I think we are in for a big dip in the not too
distant future, but I'm also not certain that there is any historic
correlation between growth in the service and sunspot activity. And if there
is, it might be bad news since Cycle 24 is now predicted to be the weakest
cycle in a century.

We probably won't be able to bring new hams onboard at a pace that will
match the attrition of the next decade, but that is no reason not to do all
that we can -- and one thing is to begin thinking about how we are going to
justify our continued occupation of radio spectrum with a lot fewer licensees.

It's a problem that Icom, Kenwood, Yaesu and the others are no doubt already
thinking about too...

--
73 de Jeff

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