Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples' predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came closest?
I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

I don't know if the Report and Order has been published in the Federal
Register
yet. The new rules cannot become effective until at least 30 days after
that.
I have been told that because the Report and Order modifies an earlier
one
(the "omnibus" R&O), the delay will be 60 days rather than 30, but I'm
not
sure if that is true.

The process went on so long that we began taking 'second guesses' a
year or so ago.

Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future (second
prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the rule
states "effective date of the FCC action that completely eliminates
Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license in the USA".
Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and will probably be
late February or even early March 2007 if the 60 day rule is in effect.

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth
or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date after the new
rules.....


73, mri xmas es hny de Jim, N2EY