On Thu, 01 Feb 2007 20:21:05 -0500, wrote:

On Fri, 02 Feb 2007 01:13:22 GMT, Dave Heil
wrote:

wrote:
On Feb 1, 5:01?pm, Leo wrote:

Did you see the pattern when Len followed up my post with his
misinformation?
I certainly did - just the right bait to draw you to the lure. ?Works
on Jim, too, because he cannot resist. ?Every time - without fail!

That's demonstrably untrue, "Leo".

But you will not admit it.

"Leo" is a one-way street.
no Leo is name not a street Dave

"Daves" might be right this time. There's a Leo street in Montreal -
not sure if it's one way, though. I'll have a look next time I'm
there!


Dave K8MN
http://kb9rqz.blogspot.com/

73, Leo

On Feb 2, 1:29�am, Bob Brock wrote:
On Thu, 1 Feb 2007 17:44:10 -0500, "Dee Flint"





wrote:

"Bob Brock" wrote in message
. ..

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
m...

"Bob Brock" wrote in message
news:_Eovh.2876$ch1.1567@bigfe9...

[snip]

It will be very tough to grow ham radio. *We've "saturated the market" so
to speak. *If you check around the internet (for example, Speroni's site
is one), you can find the statistics on a few of the other countries. *We
have 2 hams per thousand people while Europe is running more like 1 ham
per thousand people. *While we need to actively recruit, there just
aren't a lot of people out there that are inclined to amateur radio as a
part of their leisure pursuits. *We will have to recruit hard just to
stay at the current level. *It would not surprise me if our numbers
dropped in half over the next decade or so before leveling out.

You could be right. *However, there wouldn't be anything wrong with
looking at the potential base of good people who could be interested in
ham radio and trying to figure out what aspects might motivate them in
joining in the hobby. *Well, except that we are in the wrong ng to do that
right here and would need to start another thread in the appropriate ng
instead. *I guess I'm questioning whether we should recruit hard or
recruit smart? *Perhaps both wouldn't hurt anything.

What we need to do is recruit OUTSIDE the newsgroups and let people know
that it exists and what they can do with it. *People in the amateur radio
newsgroups are either already licensed or know something about ham radio.
It's the people who know little to nothing about it that we need to get the
word to so that they can decide if this is an activity that they want to get
involved in.

If you guys want to sit here and say that there is no reason for hams
to discuss methods to recruit new hams here because the only people on
the newsgroups are the ones who recruit new hams, go ahead. *I can't
make you. *However, don't bemoan the lack of growth among the ranks.

Then let's discuss ways of improving that growth.

What word is it that you want to get out? *

GOOD QUESTION!

That you can talk to people
in foreign lands? *That it is a good hobby for older people who are
shut in to be able to talk to new friends? *That you can use it for
reliable communications with family and friends? *How about the public
service aspects such as SKYWARN and ARIES? *This is just a quick list
of things that I can think of because, as I already said, time is kind
of short for me right now and I think that brainstorming is a much
better method. *That's why I suggested it.

Here's my version:

1) Ham radio exists *today*

2) It's very different from other kinds of radio, such as cb, GMRS/
FRS, broadcasting, etc.

3) You can do a wide variety of things with ham radio, including some
that you can't do in other radio services. There are only a few things
you cannot do in ham radio (commercial operation, music.
broadcasting).

4) Ham radio operation requires FCC licensing. Getting a license
requires passing multiple choice tests and making an application to
FCC.

5) Ham radio is essentially "radio for its own sake" - an end in
itself more than a means to an end.

6) One word: FUN!

What are the competitors to ham radio? *GMRS, FRS, MURS, cell phones,
CB, etc.? *What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of
each of these? *Why would ham radio be a better choice.

I'd be careful with that one.

I think one of the main reasons for lack of growth over the past
several years has been that for a long time now ham radio has been
presented as a sort of "personal radio service", with emphasis on
radio as a means to an end rather than an end in itself. The problem
with that approach is that as soon as a technology appears that also
serves that end, we lose out.

I think that amateur radio will continue to exist only if it
emphasizes how it is unique, rather than how it is similar to other
radio services.

Then you could discuss market demographics. *What kind of people might
be interested in ham radio? *How about hunters and fishermen who may
want to be able to talk back people who are out with them? *Perhaps
people who are interested in off grid living and homesteaders? Perhaps
farmers who want to be able to call back to the house when they are
out in the field? *How about emergency communications like being able
to either call home or get someone else to call home for you when your
car is broke down? *This list too could be a lot longer.

The problem is that most of what you describe is about radio as a
means to an end rather than radio for its own sake. FRS, GMRS, and
cell phones can already do most or all of what is written above.

The thing to point out is what amateur radio can do that other radio
services cannot:

- Wide variety of modes and bands
- Homebrew, kit or manufactured equipment, old to new technologies.
- Local, regional, national, international and even space
communications *without* dependence on commercial infrastructure.
- Competition (radiosport)
- Public service communications
- Emergency communications

Once you decide what the demographics are, you could look at what
kinds of media do these people read? *I can tell you right now, it's
not ham specific magazines such as QST. *Ideas that come to mind,
based on the list that I've provided are the various newsgroups and
list servers that cater to their needs. *Magazines that sell to
homesteaders such as Countryside Magazine or Mother Earth. *All kinds
of hunting and fishing magazines out there. *There are a lot of media
outlets tailored to older people and people on a tight budget/fixed
income. *You could also look at organizations publications of specific
groups. *This list too is abbreviated.

This is a very good point. Here are some more ideas:

- Ads/articles in boating, camping, RVing and flying magazines
- Highly visible amateur radio exhibits at air shows, town fairs,
parades, etc.
- Community-access cable TV and public radio/TV exposure
- Placement of amateur radio magazines, books and other material in
local schools, particularly middle schools.

Two of the barriers to people getting a ham license that I run into
quite a bit are the Morse Code requirement and a lot of people don't
realize that there is a difference between ham and CB. *The code
barrier is gone and that is a good lead in as to why someone may want
to consider ham radio even if they had dismissed it at an earlier
time.

I don't think the Morse Code test is the "barrier" that it is often
said to be, but that's
soon to be a moot point.

I do think confusion between cb and Amateur Radio has really hurt
growth in Amateur Radio for many years.

I also think that complete ignorance, or gross misunderstanding, of
the *existence* of Amateur Radio is a continuing problem.

Then someone could look back over the various open discussions and
write an article to be submitted to any of the various media
describing the advantages of ham radio over other methods. *People who
otherwise hadn't considered ham radio as an option for their
particular needs may get a chance to see that it is indeed an option
that would meet a need. *

Perhaps - but that method emphasizes "means to an end".

I say the best selling point is that simply going on the air and
making contacts is a heck of a lot of fun. So is designing, building,
testing, fixing and repairing your own radio setup. That's what ham
radio is really all about, isn't it?

It's like trying to sell sailboats instead of motorboats by
emphasizing how a sailboat doesn't need lots of fuel the way a
motorboat does, and is only a bit slower than many motorboats. You may
sell a few sailboats that way, but it's not the best approach IMHO.

The way to sell sailboats is to sell the unique *experience* of
sailboating itself - how it makes you feel, how much fun it is, etc.
Sailing as an end in itself. Some people will "get it", most won't.

Of course most people's motivations to do something are a mix of the
practical and the emotional. So the ultimate goal is to appeal to both
of those, not just the practical.

It's not only a good chance to promote ham
radio in a media read by someone other than hams, you might make a
little money from it. *There are many here with excellent writing
skills who are capable of doing it.

The other option is to take a fatalistic viewpoint that the market is
saturated and growth is impossible. *To that, I say that marketing is
everything and right now the vast majority of marketing is keyed
towards those already in ham radio. *It's a policy that I disagree
with and if no one else wants to do it, it's something that I will do
alone as soon as time permits. *However, that may be after the current
widow of opportunity created by dropping the code requirement has
passed and that would be truly unfortunate

How something is sold is very important, though. If we sell amateur
radio only by what it can do for your personal communications needs,
we will always be at the mercy of the next technological improvement.


73 es TNX de Jim, N2EY

"Bob Brock" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 1 Feb 2007 17:44:10 -0500, "Dee Flint"
wrote:


"Bob Brock" wrote in message
...

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
. ..

"Bob Brock" wrote in message
news:_Eovh.2876$ch1.1567@bigfe9...

[snip]


It will be very tough to grow ham radio. We've "saturated the market"
so
to speak. If you check around the internet (for example, Speroni's
site
is one), you can find the statistics on a few of the other countries.
We
have 2 hams per thousand people while Europe is running more like 1 ham
per thousand people. While we need to actively recruit, there just
aren't a lot of people out there that are inclined to amateur radio as
a
part of their leisure pursuits. We will have to recruit hard just to
stay at the current level. It would not surprise me if our numbers
dropped in half over the next decade or so before leveling out.

You could be right. However, there wouldn't be anything wrong with
looking at the potential base of good people who could be interested in
ham radio and trying to figure out what aspects might motivate them in
joining in the hobby. Well, except that we are in the wrong ng to do
that
right here and would need to start another thread in the appropriate ng
instead. I guess I'm questioning whether we should recruit hard or
recruit smart? Perhaps both wouldn't hurt anything.


What we need to do is recruit OUTSIDE the newsgroups and let people know
that it exists and what they can do with it. People in the amateur radio
newsgroups are either already licensed or know something about ham radio.
It's the people who know little to nothing about it that we need to get
the
word to so that they can decide if this is an activity that they want to
get
involved in.

If you guys want to sit here and say that there is no reason for hams
to discuss methods to recruit new hams here because the only people on
the newsgroups are the ones who recruit new hams, go ahead. I can't
make you. However, don't bemoan the lack of growth among the ranks.


You misunderstood. I did not say we should not talk about methods. I said
actually recruiting here is not going to help as those who don't know about
ham radio won't be here.

What word is it that you want to get out? That you can talk to people
in foreign lands? That it is a good hobby for older people who are
shut in to be able to talk to new friends? That you can use it for
reliable communications with family and friends? How about the public
service aspects such as SKYWARN and ARIES? This is just a quick list
of things that I can think of because, as I already said, time is kind
of short for me right now and I think that brainstorming is a much
better method. That's why I suggested it.


All these methods must be used as you never know what will pique some one's
interest.

What are the competitors to ham radio? GMRS, FRS, MURS, cell phones,
CB, etc.? What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of
each of these? Why would ham radio be a better choice.


See above.

Then you could discuss market demographics. What kind of people might
be interested in ham radio? How about hunters and fishermen who may
want to be able to talk back people who are out with them? Perhaps
people who are interested in off grid living and homesteaders? Perhaps
farmers who want to be able to call back to the house when they are
out in the field? How about emergency communications like being able
to either call home or get someone else to call home for you when your
car is broke down? This list too could be a lot longer.


See above. However, interest can come from any person. The particular uses
you list here however will be better served by other alternatives.

Once you decide what the demographics are, you could look at what
kinds of media do these people read? I can tell you right now, it's
not ham specific magazines such as QST.

That was my point. You've got to go "outside".

Ideas that come to mind,
based on the list that I've provided are the various newsgroups and
list servers that cater to their needs. Magazines that sell to
homesteaders such as Countryside Magazine or Mother Earth. All kinds
of hunting and fishing magazines out there. There are a lot of media
outlets tailored to older people and people on a tight budget/fixed
income. You could also look at organizations publications of specific
groups. This list too is abbreviated.


As far as magazines go, unless you want to pay for ad space, you've got to
find a way to tie it into an area of interest actually covered by the
magazine to try to get it published. I think this should be given a try
though.


Two of the barriers to people getting a ham license that I run into
quite a bit are the Morse Code requirement and a lot of people don't
realize that there is a difference between ham and CB. The code
barrier is gone and that is a good lead in as to why someone may want
to consider ham radio even if they had dismissed it at an earlier
time.


I agree with the CB idea but no one that I ran into even knew about the code
requirement. So I doubt that the latter was significant.

Then someone could look back over the various open discussions and
write an article to be submitted to any of the various media
describing the advantages of ham radio over other methods. People who
otherwise hadn't considered ham radio as an option for their
particular needs may get a chance to see that it is indeed an option
that would meet a need. It's not only a good chance to promote ham
radio in a media read by someone other than hams, you might make a
little money from it. There are many here with excellent writing
skills who are capable of doing it.

The other option is to take a fatalistic viewpoint that the market is
saturated and growth is impossible.

That's not necessarily fatalistic but something one must be aware of in
order to tailor their recruiting approach.

To that, I say that marketing is
everything and right now the vast majority of marketing is keyed
towards those already in ham radio. It's a policy that I disagree
with and if no one else wants to do it, it's something that I will do
alone as soon as time permits. However, that may be after the current
widow of opportunity created by dropping the code requirement has
passed and that would be truly unfortunate.


Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it. This applies to everything from toasters to cars to TV
programming to any hobby you can name. For example, there's no growth in
the US toaster market. Each manufacturer works on keeping their market
share or growing their share. Similarly, we will have to show why our
activity deserves more of a person's free time than other activities.

I do agree that the "marketing" of our hobby does need to be much better
than it is. We need to seek out and find those that would be interested.
Those that perhaps lack interest only because they have not heard about it
or know very little about it.

Marketing the hobby is not the same as marketing the hardware or a specific
aspect of ham radio within the ham community. Current marketing is focusing
on the latter items. I hope you do get out and market our hobby. Many of
us do promote the hobby within our circle of family, friends, acquaintances,
co-workers, etc.

Dee, N8UZE

"Dee Flint" wrote:

Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it.

Yes, with planned obsolescence.

Not exactly the same thing in ham radio, nor can we really deal with it the
same way.

73
kh6hz

"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Dee Flint" wrote:

Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it.

Yes, with planned obsolescence.

Not exactly the same thing in ham radio, nor can we really deal with it
the same way.

73
kh6hz

Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still must
face the equivalent of market saturation. Not everyone is going to be
interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our
general population growth is very slow. These issues must be considered
when devising a strategy. Look at how many people believed and still
believe that Morse code kept people out. They think there is a huge number
of people just waiting in the wings chomping at the bit to become hams
without having to take a code test. I'll certainly be happy and excited if
that happens but let's say it doesn't (and I think it won't). What then
will people propose? Will they continue to ignore concepts like market
saturation as one potentially relevant issue? Will they continue to ignore
the concept that not everyone is interested in the types of things that
amateur radio can do?

We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute"
hams are, for the most part, gone. That's several years still of decline.
With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no more
recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in this
way.

The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of
recruits.

This actually leads to the major reason for my little guessing game on the
growth of amateur radio without a code test. If my prediction is wrong and
we have a huge growth, I'll be happy and readily admit that I was wrong. If
the growth doesn't happen, perhaps people will wake up and realize that
changing requirements won't address the issue. Perhaps they will realize
that it is a recruitment and marketing issue rather than requirements.

Dee, N8UZE

On Feb 2, 1:07�pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
"KH6HZ" wrote in message

...

"Dee Flint" wrote:

Market saturation is a fact that all retail manufacturer's face. And they
deal with it.

Yes, with planned obsolescence.

Not exactly the same thing in ham radio, nor can we really deal with it
the same way.

Although our approach will of necessity have to be different, we still must
face the equivalent of market saturation. *

Well, yes and no.

To use the toaster analogy, there's no growth in toaster sales because
almost everyone who wants or needs a toaster already has one or more.
The percentage of Americans who want toasting technology in their
homes is very large, too.

New toaster sales today are almost all either replacements for worn-
out old toasters, or to people setting up a new kitchen.

The key point is that there aren't large numbers of people out there
who don't know about toasters and who will step up and buy one or more
if modern toasting is presented to them in a positive way.

But with amateur radio, I think there are sizable numbers of people
who don't even know amateur radio exists, or who have very distorted
ideas about it. *Those* are the people we need to reach.

Of course many of them won't be interested, no matter what the license
requirements are, because "radio for its own sake" just doesn't
interest as many people as, say, whole wheat toast with butter and
marmalade.

Not everyone is going to be
interested in amateur radio no matter what we do and on top of that our
general population growth is very slow.

I think the population growth is particularly slow in the demographics
that would be most interested in becoming hams, too.

All that means is that we need to get the word out.

*These issues must be considered
when devising a strategy. *Look at how many people believed and still
believe that Morse code kept people out. *They think there is a huge number
of people just waiting in the wings chomping at the bit to become hams
without having to take a code test.

Exactly.

If that were really true, the number of US hams by license class would
be as lopsided as it is in Japan. But it's not.

*I'll certainly be happy and excited if
that happens

Me too!

but let's say it doesn't (and I think it won't). *What then
will people propose?

Reducing the written tests, of course. In fact, that's already been
proposed by NCVEC (see their "Communicator" license idea, and the
paper "Amateur Radio in the 21st Century").

*Will they continue to ignore concepts like market
saturation as one potentially relevant issue? *Will they continue to ignore
the concept that not everyone is interested in the types of things that
amateur radio can do?

We will see in the next few months.

But remember that the resturcturing of 2000 did not result in longterm
growth.

We've probably got another several years until the "cell phone substitute"
hams are, for the most part, gone. *That's several years still of decline.
With the relatively low cost of cell phones these days, we will get no more
recruits from this approach although we have kept a few that came in this
way.

The decline in CB enthusiasts is also reducing another potential source of
recruits.

Yup.

Another factor is that many of the new hams of the 70s-'80s-'90s were
not young people when they started out. More than a few I know were
empty-nesters and retirees - and now they aren't with us anymore.

Also, it should be remembered that back in the supposed "golden age"
of amateur radio - whenever that supposedly was - there were not only
far fewer hams than today, but the number of hams per 1000 people was
far lower. Only in the past few years has the US population grown
faster than the US amateur population.

This actually leads to the major reason for my little guessing game on the
growth of amateur radio without a code test. *If my prediction is wrong and
we have a huge growth, I'll be happy and readily admit that I was wrong. *

Same here. That's one reason I will continue to post the ARS license
numbers here twice a month. That way, anyone can go back through the
archives and see the long-term trends.

If
the growth doesn't happen, perhaps people will wake up and realize that
changing requirements won't address the issue. *Perhaps they will realize
that it is a recruitment and marketing issue rather than requirements.

I agree!

But mark my words: there will be loud cries that the written tests
need to be reduced as well.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
But with amateur radio, I think there are sizable numbers of people
who don't even know amateur radio exists, or who have very distorted
ideas about it. *Those* are the people we need to reach.

Some of them work for the Madisonville Independent
School District here in Texas. Their web filters
block anything related to amateur radio as "entertainment".
When I try to access www.arrl.org, I get a message
saying it is blocked because it is "entertainment".
A school system that blocks anything associated
with amateur radio is in very sad shape.
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com

On Feb 2, 10:57�am, Cecil Moore wrote:
wrote:
But with amateur radio, I think there are sizable numbers of people
who don't even know amateur radio exists, or who have very distorted
ideas about it. *Those* are the people we need to reach.

Some of them work for the Madisonville Independent
School District here in Texas. Their web filters
block anything related to amateur radio as "entertainment".
When I try to accesswww.arrl.org, I get a message
saying it is blocked because it is "entertainment".
A school system that blocks anything associated
with amateur radio is in very sad shape.
--
73, Cecil *http://www.w5dxp.com

Cecil, amateur radio is a national SERVICE!

Would you call the military "entertainment?"

Connect the dots.

Some dashes might be nice, too...

LA

wrote:
Cecil, amateur radio is a national SERVICE!

Yes, as in an "administrative division of government".

Would you call the military "entertainment?"

No, it is also an "administrative division of government".
--
73, Cecil http://www.w5dxp.com

On Feb 2, 12:11�pm, Cecil Moore wrote:
wrote:
* *Cecil, amateur radio is a national SERVICE!

Yes, as in an "administrative division of government".

* *Would you call the military "entertainment?"

No, it is also an "administrative division of government".
--
73, Cecil *http://www.w5dxp.com

Hmmm...I just wrote four separate sentences. :-)

Are they related to one another? :-)

tongue in cheek