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March 3rd 05, 01:03 AM

wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote:

wrote

Michael Coslo wrote:

Back in the '50s and '60s, and maybe even into the '70s, almost all
new hams were teenagers or young adults. Young people still make up a
goodpercentage of new hams, but since about the mid-late 1970s we've
seen an increasing percentage of older people as newcomers. Indeed, back
in the early 1980s - *before* the Tech lost its code test - there was
(and still is) a surge of retired and almost-retired folks in these
parts getting ham licenses. Lots of new faces and lots of great hams, but
unfortunately most of them won't be hams long enough to join OOTC.

The Demographic shift in Amateur Radio is similar to many other
hobbies/avocations. I think once the dust settles, the typical new
ham will be in his or her 40's, and wanting to have a new pursuit after
becoming financially stable and perhaps having a bit more spare time
in his hands.

The exact same thing has already happened in my other hobby, Amateur
Astronomy.

Maybe.

But a lot of folks I know who are in their '40s don't fit your
description, struggling with jobs, kids, etc.

And I know some people in their 60's who have just bought a house. They
may or may not finish their mortgage.

My point is that a new demographic is emerging. It is one of a mature
person who has decided to get into a hobby as they start to have a bit
more leisure time. For myself, that started when I was in my mid-late
40's, as my son graduated high school and the travel hockey wound down.
All that tends to free up the finances a bit also.

But it is indisputable that the reductions in requirements have NOT
had any sort of significant positive impact on the Ham community.

Not long-term, anyway.

Despite the hand wringing, there is a place for achieving
something that means something. A test that is a challenge? So what? I
personally think that the ARS is only strengthened by attracting
people that enjoy a bit of a challenge.

That's a key point.

I think it has been adequately proven that many if not most of the
people that think that Element one needs to go away are also in
favor of reduced overall licensing requirements. Certainly the leading
organization for removal of the Morse test is.

Yep. And if Element 1 is removed, and we still don't get growth,
guess what's next? NCVEC has already shown their hand.

Let us not forget NCI.

Basically that position consists of accepting almost any compromise
that will get rid of the code test.

I think it is apparent by now that they have done major damage to their
credibility.

Note that almost 5 years after the 200 restructuring we still
retain more than 50% of Novices and 75% of Advanceds.

This indicates to me a significant number of inactive hams. Sure,
there are some who are satisfied with their license privs, but I suspect
a lot more are SK or have dropped out.

Pretty much

This has always been the case since I've been a ham. It's gotten worse
since the 10 year license term.

The number of Techs continues to grow in part because all Tech
Pluses have been renewed as Techs since April 2000. But the total number
of Techs and Tech Pluses is s few percent lower than it was in 2000.

Agreed! But of course people have to know what ham radio *is* to
do that!

Someone suggested some short commercial spots on time.

"on time"?

Typo! "one" time...

I wonder if that
has ever been done. Nothing too elaborate, just getting the
name out there.

Good idea, but expensive.

Seems like there are Hams that are professionals in the field that
might be willing to help!......

Still have to buy the time.

I would bet that a well thought out program could get some public
service spots on local access TV.

I guess I'm not inspiring you yet? 8^)

Local access TV may bring in a few folks, but not like network TV.

Of course. But it would still be getting a message out.

Maybe PBS could do a special? Imagine if Ken Burns did a documentary on
amateur radio...

Now your talking! hehe.

Yet the NCVEC folks say the solution is to create a class of ham
that can't use rigs with more than 30 volts on the electronics...

Goofy, goofy, goofy!

Tell it to NCVEC. They think they know better than you.

From what I gather, their underlying concern was actually that
they think their VE's were having to work too hard.

Perhaps. Also, the "Amateur Radio in the 21st Century" paper
equated passing the code test with winning the Tour de France or painting
the Mona Lisa,

Wow! now I feel really great about passing!!! ;^)

Didja read that paper, and my rebuttal?

I read the paper (don't know if I should say *yawn* or *ick*. I didn't
read your comment tho'.

and described the stress of dealing with grown people crying
because they'd flunked the code test....boo-hoo....

Funny you should mention that. the first time I took element 1... and

flunked... I was not pleased, but Figured I'd do it again, the person
who was the most upset was the VE. I felt worse for him than myself.

Lessee...I was 14 and flunked 13 wpm the first go because the examiner
couldn't read my longhand. What the sadistic IHM nuns called "Palmer
Method", for some reason.

So you went to the catholic school at Our Lady of the Perpetual
Responsibility, eh?

So I went home and taught myself to block print and copy Morse in big
square capital letters (a skill not taught in the parochial schools of
the day) and came back some weeks later, when I passed easily.

I don't think tears would have had any effect on ol' Joe Squelch back
then...

Shrub says hydrogen is the answer. Oh the humanity.

Hydrogen's energy density issues make for some problems. That
Excursion will have to tack on another 10 miles per hour on trips to make up
for all the fuel stops needed.

Naw, just liquefy the stuff.

Yoiks! Liquid H? Even if, the energy density is still quite a bit
less than gasoline. something like 25 percent.

Storage concerns are a big problem with the stuff. In a similar
fashion We have Natural gas buses in our area. Their tanks are on the bus
roof, and run the length of the bus. You just can't get as much energy out
of the stuff.

Didja know the USA is now *importing* LNG from the Middle East and
other places?

Ever stop to think about how much of that stuff used to be burned off at
the well head as "useless"? One more Yoiks!

The big problems a

- Handling a fuel that is a gas at STP is more complex than one
that is a liquid.

- Danger of fire and leaking pressure tanks

- Where's all the hydrogen supposed to come from?

Yup. While seawater might seem like the obvious way out, hydrolysis
of seawater produces interesting byproducts.

Yep. Plus - where do you get the electricity to hydrolyze the seawater?

I'm a big fan of nuclear energy, when it is done in a smart and safe
way. And there are smart and safe ways to do it.

Now tell the people in the western US that you want to take a huge
amount of their fresh water!! 8^) It is in short enough supply as it
is.

Might as well develop electric cars...

Welcome back to nuc energy!

One thing I am adamant about is that we should never try to extract the
energy needed to run our country from materials that humans need to
support life. Biofuels such as corn based ethanol, and hydrogen taken
from fresh water are big no-nos in my book. If we go down that road, we
may some day have to choose between propulsive energy and human life.

You mean like dragging the gay marriage issue into the Social
Security problem? 8^)

Yep. The interesting thing is that allowing gay civil unions would
*increase* tax revenue.

And speaking of marriage: One thing I find interesting is that the
divorce rates in the "red" states are consistently and clearly
higher than the rates in "blue" states. Seems those folks who rant and
rave about "family values" and "covenants" can't seem to stay hitched
very long.

All you have to do is meet some of the "reds", and you'll
immediately understand why they have such a high divorce rate......

Ya gotta be more specific than that!

hehe, when I think of the modern conservative, I keep getting this
vision of Old man Newt.

You mean the "family values" guy who had divorce papers served on his
first wife (who had supported him through law school and the early
struggles of his political career) while she was *in the hospital
undergoing cancer treatment*?

ah yes, you've heard of him? I notice he's being resurrected even now.

Here's the kind of thinking being put forth:

One plan being suggested in DC is for the USA to create a special
savings account for each baby born in the USA, starting on a
certain date. The Feds would put $2000 into each account each year until
the kid reaches 18. Total investment $36,000. Assuming about 6% annual
interest, each account would be worth over a million dollars when
the "baby" reached 65.

Nice retirement package, huh? Except it won't work for several
reasons

completely obvious to anyone with common sense.

Who pays that 6 percent interest?

That's the first problem.

The last time I checked, the rate
wasn't anywhere near that.

Bingo!

Taxes on that money? Capital gains?

The money would be tax exempt until the person began to draw upon
it.

Inflation?

That's a BIG one!

~30 years ago, when I was entering the job market out of college,
entry-level engineers with degrees were making about what *minimum
wage* is now. Go back 50 years, and a $5000/yr income put the
average person on Easy Street, able to support a middle-class family in a
way that $50,000/yr won't do today.

Even if inflation stays low over the next 65 years, $1 million
won't be enough to retire on. What really matters, of course, is what I call
"differential interest" - the difference between inflation and the
apparent interest rate. If you get interest of 6% and inflation of
2%, your money is really only growing at a rate of 4%.

Your going to have to have some sort of way that the guvmint
pays interest on the account when the prime is low, or you will be
creating a powerful incentive for citizens to want a high interest
rate which is counterproductive to the economy......The list goes on and
on.

Yep.

Also interesting how everyone in the US will retire a millionaire!

Sounds good until the reality cuts in. There are lots of
millionaires today - on paper anyway.

Ain't gonna work!

Yet that isn't some wild-eyed idea - it's something our alleged
leadership has suggested!

Hey yeah! The stock Market always goes up over the long term, right?

Yep. Whether it keeps up with inflation is another issue.

Even if it does, if you are using a market based system, the important
part is what the market is doing right before you retire.

While that may be true, people keep applying it to irrelevant issues.

This case is just one of using interest in a way that sounds good if
you don't look too deep.

By the way, did you know the producer of the "Swiftboat Veterns" is
now producing smear videos and literature against the AARP? The same
people they eagerly worked with a year or two earlier.

The Swift Boat dude has been playing that game for decades. Never mind
that lots of other vets, who served *with* Mr. Kerry, tell a completely
different story.

no shame, at long last, no shame.

Didn't AARP lose membership for supporting Shrub's prescription plan?

Not sure....

Consider these other problems:

If there are, say, 4 million births per year, the govt. will need
to put $8 billion into the accounts the first year, $16 billion the
second year, $24 billion the third year, etc. This won't stabilize until
the 18th year, when it reaches $144 billion per year being put aside in
these accounts. Most of that money would have to come from *new*
revenue sources, because the existing Social Security system would
have to continue to exist for a while. And that's based on *no* increase
in baby production!

Where's all that money supposed to come from?

Tax cuts.

HAW!

Seriously, if we reduce the tax rate all problems will go away!

- Mike KB3EIA -

March 3rd 05, 12:25 PM

Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote:

wrote

Michael Coslo wrote:

And I know some people in their 60's who have just bought a house.
They
may or may not finish their mortgage.

My point is that a new demographic is emerging. It is one of a mature

person who has decided to get into a hobby as they start to have a
bit
more leisure time. For myself, that started when I was in my mid-late

40's, as my son graduated high school and the travel hockey wound
down.
All that tends to free up the finances a bit also.

I think that demographic has been around for at least 2-3 decades. But
your point is well taken.

And it has unforeseen effects, like driving the "average age" of US
hams upwards.

Local access TV may bring in a few folks, but not like network TV.

Of course. But it would still be getting a message out.

Maybe PBS could do a special? Imagine if Ken Burns did a
documentary on
amateur radio...

Now your talking! hehe.

'zactly

Yet the NCVEC folks say the solution is to create a class of
ham
that can't use rigs with more than 30 volts on the
electronics...

Goofy, goofy, goofy!

Tell it to NCVEC. They think they know better than you.

From what I gather, their underlying concern was actually that
they think their VE's were having to work too hard.

Perhaps. Also, the "Amateur Radio in the 21st Century" paper
equated passing the code test with winning the Tour de France or
painting
the Mona Lisa,

Wow! now I feel really great about passing!!! ;^)

Didja read that paper, and my rebuttal?

I read the paper (don't know if I should say *yawn* or *ick*. I
didn't
read your comment tho'.

Please see the links I posted in my reply to K8MN earlier today.

The NCVEC proposal is derived almost word-for-word from that paper.
Interesting to note the mistakes in the paper and its 'we know better
than you' tone from an author who *brags* he can't even pass the
current tests!

Makes the ARRL proposal look like a work of genius by comparison.

and described the stress of dealing with grown people crying
because they'd flunked the code test....boo-hoo....

Funny you should mention that. the first time I took element 1...
and

flunked... I was not pleased, but Figured I'd do it again, the
person
who was the most upset was the VE. I felt worse for him than
myself.

Lessee...I was 14 and flunked 13 wpm the first go because the
examiner
couldn't read my longhand. What the sadistic IHM nuns called
"Palmer
Method", for some reason.

So you went to the catholic school at Our Lady of the Perpetual
Responsibility, eh?

Yep. Only they weren't so nice as Sister Arvonne

Shrub says hydrogen is the answer. Oh the humanity.

Hydrogen's energy density issues make for some problems. That
Excursion will have to tack on another 10 miles per hour on trips
to make up
for all the fuel stops needed.

Naw, just liquefy the stuff.

Yoiks! Liquid H? Even if, the energy density is still quite a bit
less than gasoline. something like 25 percent.

Storage concerns are a big problem with the stuff. In a similar
fashion We have Natural gas buses in our area. Their tanks are on
the bus
roof, and run the length of the bus. You just can't get as much
energy out
of the stuff.

Didja know the USA is now *importing* LNG from the Middle East and
other places?

Ever stop to think about how much of that stuff used to be burned off
at
the well head as "useless"? One more Yoiks!

Not useless, just not economically competitive to recover and transport
at the time.

The big problems a

- Handling a fuel that is a gas at STP is more complex than one
that is a liquid.

- Danger of fire and leaking pressure tanks

- Where's all the hydrogen supposed to come from?

Yup. While seawater might seem like the obvious way out,
hydrolysis
of seawater produces interesting byproducts.

Yep. Plus - where do you get the electricity to hydrolyze the
seawater?

I'm a big fan of nuclear energy, when it is done in a smart and safe
way. And there are smart and safe ways to do it.

The plants are obvious terror targets. The long term problem is the
waste.

One solution being explored in places like Australia is the solar tower
concept. Uses desert land.

Now tell the people in the western US that you want to take a huge
amount of their fresh water!! 8^) It is in short enough supply as
it
is.

Might as well develop electric cars...

Welcome back to nuc energy!

One thing I am adamant about is that we should never try to extract
the
energy needed to run our country from materials that humans need to
support life. Biofuels such as corn based ethanol, and hydrogen taken

from fresh water are big no-nos in my book.

A point well taken! Hwoever, if fuels can be extracted from waste
products (TDP, for example) that's a win-win.

If we go down that road, we
may some day have to choose between propulsive energy and human life.

We already make that choice when we import oil from certain countries
and turn a blind eye to what else they do. Like the way the Reagan
administration and Shake Hands dealt with SH back in the '80s.

You mean like dragging the gay marriage issue into the Social
Security problem? 8^)

Yep. The interesting thing is that allowing gay civil unions
would
*increase* tax revenue.

And speaking of marriage: One thing I find interesting is that
the
divorce rates in the "red" states are consistently and clearly
higher than the rates in "blue" states. Seems those folks who
rant and
rave about "family values" and "covenants" can't seem to stay
hitched
very long.

All you have to do is meet some of the "reds", and you'll
immediately understand why they have such a high divorce
rate......

Ya gotta be more specific than that!

hehe, when I think of the modern conservative, I keep getting this
vision of Old man Newt.

You mean the "family values" guy who had divorce papers served on
his
first wife (who had supported him through law school and the early
struggles of his political career) while she was *in the hospital
undergoing cancer treatment*?

ah yes, you've heard of him?

Yeah - nice guy, huh? NOT!

"It's all about values"

I notice he's being resurrected even now.

Look up how many times Rush Limbaugh has been married...

Here's the kind of thinking being put forth:

One plan being suggested in DC is for the USA to create a
special
savings account for each baby born in the USA, starting on a
certain date. The Feds would put $2000 into each account each
year until
the kid reaches 18. Total investment $36,000. Assuming about 6%
annual
interest, each account would be worth over a million dollars
when
the "baby" reached 65.

Nice retirement package, huh? Except it won't work for several
reasons

completely obvious to anyone with common sense.

Who pays that 6 percent interest?

That's the first problem.

The last time I checked, the rate
wasn't anywhere near that.

Bingo!

Taxes on that money? Capital gains?

The money would be tax exempt until the person began to draw upon
it.

Inflation?

That's a BIG one!

~30 years ago, when I was entering the job market out of college,
entry-level engineers with degrees were making about what *minimum
wage* is now. Go back 50 years, and a $5000/yr income put the
average person on Easy Street, able to support a middle-class
family in a
way that $50,000/yr won't do today.

Even if inflation stays low over the next 65 years, $1 million
won't be enough to retire on. What really matters, of course, is
what I call
"differential interest" - the difference between inflation and the
apparent interest rate. If you get interest of 6% and inflation of
2%, your money is really only growing at a rate of 4%.

Your going to have to have some sort of way that the guvmint
pays interest on the account when the prime is low, or you will
be
creating a powerful incentive for citizens to want a high
interest
rate which is counterproductive to the economy......The list goes
on and
on.

Yep.

Also interesting how everyone in the US will retire a
millionaire!

Sounds good until the reality cuts in. There are lots of
millionaires today - on paper anyway.

Ain't gonna work!

Yet that isn't some wild-eyed idea - it's something our alleged
leadership has suggested!

Hey yeah! The stock Market always goes up over the long term,
right?

Yep. Whether it keeps up with inflation is another issue.

Even if it does, if you are using a market based system, the
important
part is what the market is doing right before you retire.

Not really, unless you intend to pull all your money out the day you
retire.

While that may be true, people keep applying it to irrelevant
issues.

This case is just one of using interest in a way that sounds good
if
you don't look too deep.

By the way, did you know the producer of the "Swiftboat Veterns"
is
now producing smear videos and literature against the AARP? The
same
people they eagerly worked with a year or two earlier.

The Swift Boat dude has been playing that game for decades. Never
mind
that lots of other vets, who served *with* Mr. Kerry, tell a
completely
different story.

no shame, at long last, no shame.

Didn't AARP lose membership for supporting Shrub's prescription
plan?

Not sure....

Consider these other problems:

If there are, say, 4 million births per year, the govt. will need
to put $8 billion into the accounts the first year, $16 billion
the
second year, $24 billion the third year, etc. This won't
stabilize until
the 18th year, when it reaches $144 billion per year being put
aside in
these accounts. Most of that money would have to come from *new*
revenue sources, because the existing Social Security system would
have to continue to exist for a while. And that's based on *no*
increase
in baby production!

Where's all that money supposed to come from?

Tax cuts.

HAW!

Seriously, if we reduce the tax rate all problems will go away!

Until tomorrow!

73 de Jim, N2EY

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