Li Changchun wrote:


"uncle arnie" wrote
How much western debt does China hold? I think it is quite high,
particularly for the USA. This would mean grave economic problems for the
west if China is "on the verge of collapse".

Hardly, in case of a China banking collapse financial arrangements can
always be made.
We are talking about paper after all. Not gold bullion. Perhaps WalMart
stock
will collapse but the $US always rallys in times of serious worldwide
calamity.
The Chinese $Yuan may become worthless.

The Chinese are currently financing the US government. They hold a BIG
chunk of US debt. The West has shifted all its manufacturing facilities
to China so in the event of a China collapse there might be serious
shortages of most goods. I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

As for N Korea, they are so
disconnected from the world, no-one would notice except for those of us
who
like the comedy of their SW broadcasts.

You are seriously mistaken. If the hermit kingdom collapses there will be a
human
tragedy on the peninsula. The economic costs to S.Korea will be worse than
what Germany has had to endure since the fall of the Berlin wall. Assuming
hoards of refugees begin to cross the DMZ. Which is very likely.

The DMZ is the most fortified border on earth. The North Koreans have
gone to great lengths to make sure that nobody crosses. I'm not so sure
that hordes of refugees will be flooding across.

Then there is the geo-political question. Will China invade N.Korea and
claim
its territory for repayment of decades of economic support? Or will China
allow
a free and Democratic state to prosper on its economically suffering
Northeast
border with the peninsula? If so it would be a first as well as a strategic
blow
to the Communist regime in Beijing.

I don't think you'd see a democracy spring up in NK. They've had 60
years of harsh Stalinist rule. You'd more likely see a situation like in
Afghanistan before the Taliban, with a lot of local party bosses
becoming warlords and establishing fiefdoms. China may send troops to
ensure "stability". But I don't think China will invade South Korea. The
US is a major trading partner for China; the CCP is NOT going to start a
nuclear war with the US in the name of Communism.

China historically prefers weak, non-threatening regimes as neighbors and
works
to maintain its supremacy over all its immediate neighbors.

Korean history extends into what is now Northeast China. There are Korean
claims to these lands. China is well aware of these claims and has
summarily
rewrote its history books in an attempt to erase these claims.

The best scenario for the West would be if one collapses immediately
followed by the other. Neither regime would stand which is why China
will not pressure N.Korea in regard to nuclear negotiations. China can
very easily resolve the nuclear issue since all of N.Korea's energy comes
from China. Simply turn off a spigot and flick the big switch and Kim Jong
Il
is complete history.

If China thinks they can keep Kim from nuking Seoul, they may be sadly
mistaken. Unlike the massive bureaucracy that Communism has become in
China, in NK Kim is the end all and be all of government. He is totally
cut off from the rest of the world and lives in a dream world and is
much more likely to start a war with the US to "free" SK. If the US is
forced to invade NK because of Kim, the US will likely reach a quid pro
quo with the Chinese, keeping the Yalu River as the boundary between US
and Chinese troops. The mutual trade between China and the US means that
all out war between the two is not likely, even if China invades Taiwan.
The US establishment is not willing to have a nuclear war over Taiwan or
Korea.



Li Changchun wrote:

junk snipped

N.Korea

N. Korea launches harsh crackdown
(interesting read)


http://interestalert.com/brand/sitei...02aaa05d83.upi
&Sys=rmmiller&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World% 20News
__________________________________________________ __

Enjoy the Voice of Korea propaganda in English:

0100-0200 Z
11735 13760 15180 kHz to N.America

1000-1100 Z
9335 9850 kHz to N.America

1300-1400 Z
9335 11710 kHz to N.America
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe

1500-1600 Z
9335 11710 kHz to N.America
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe

1800-1900 Z
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe

2100-2200 Z
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe
__________________________________________________ ____________





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"running dogg"

The Chinese are currently financing the US government. They hold a BIG
chunk of US debt. The West has shifted all its manufacturing facilities
to China so in the event of a China collapse there might be serious
shortages of most goods.


What you are likely to see in China is the collapse of their banks, which
are
already insolvent and technically bankrupt, and the disentigration of the
CCP.
Neither of which will likely spell the end of their manufacturing base. In
the very short term there may be disruptions but it would quickly recover
and without the CCPoverhead possibly become much more robust.

I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

Your love of the CCP has seriously blinded you to a brutal muderous regime
which is deeply hated by their own people.

The DMZ is the most fortified border on earth. The North Koreans have
gone to great lengths to make sure that nobody crosses. I'm not so sure
that hordes of refugees will be flooding across.

If the N.Korean side of the DMZ becomes demilitarized because of a regime
colapse you can be sure that waves of refugees will find a way across or
around
it. China would also see refugees.

I don't think you'd see a democracy spring up in NK. They've had 60
years of harsh Stalinist rule. You'd more likely see a situation like in
Afghanistan before the Taliban, with a lot of local party bosses
becoming warlords and establishing fiefdoms.

I see you are assuming that another brutal regime will take hold.
But that is not the scenario I am discussing. Besides another
regime would simply collapse as quikely as the old.

China may send troops to
ensure "stability".

Indeed, and that would be viewed as a very provactive move in Seoul
and the West.

But I don't think China will invade South Korea. The
US is a major trading partner for China; the CCP is NOT going to start a
nuclear war with the US in the name of Communism.

Has it occured to you that whomever overthrows Kim Jong Il may well be
"friendly" with the South?

If China thinks they can keep Kim from nuking Seoul, they may be sadly
mistaken. Unlike the massive bureaucracy that Communism has become in
China, in NK Kim is the end all and be all of government. He is totally
cut off from the rest of the world and lives in a dream world and is
much more likely to start a war with the US to "free" SK. If the US is
forced to invade NK because of Kim, the US will likely reach a quid pro
quo with the Chinese, keeping the Yalu River as the boundary between US
and Chinese troops. The mutual trade between China and the US means that
all out war between the two is not likely, even if China invades Taiwan.
The US establishment is not willing to have a nuclear war over Taiwan or
Korea.

You make many assumptions here about many countries. China is well known
for saber rattling against Taiwan. Taiwan businesses invest heavily in
China as
well. The scenario of any nuclear exchange in the region is very remote.
Regarding
N.Korea, even if Kim Jong Il does indeed have a "couple" of nuclear tipped
weapons, considering the latest intelligence and if his military is even
slightly
coherent", they would likely depose of him and refrain.

In any case, nuclear weapons aside, the Korean peninsular would become
the immediate focus of attention in the West and Beijing and Seoul would
have
many urgent and pressing meetings to attend.

Li Changchun wrote:


"running dogg"

The Chinese are currently financing the US government. They hold a BIG
chunk of US debt. The West has shifted all its manufacturing facilities
to China so in the event of a China collapse there might be serious
shortages of most goods.


What you are likely to see in China is the collapse of their banks, which
are
already insolvent and technically bankrupt, and the disentigration of the
CCP.
Neither of which will likely spell the end of their manufacturing base. In
the very short term there may be disruptions but it would quickly recover
and without the CCPoverhead possibly become much more robust.

Possibly. But China has a tradition of warlord rule, and for much of its
history has been broken into feuding fiefdoms, despite the common
culture and language of the Chinese people. Then again, the same
situation persisted in Italy for a thousand years, and that country is
now stable and prosperous.

I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

Your love of the CCP has seriously blinded you to a brutal muderous regime
which is deeply hated by their own people.

You seem to make this same curious error over and over again, equating
any concern about China's stability and potential disruptions to the
west if that stability were to be disrupted with love of the CCP. I
doubt most westerners love the CCP, I sure don't. But it's the only
thing holding the country together. Like I said, China has a long,
bloody history of warlordism and civil war, and any collapse of the CCP
might bring a return to the bad old days. This bad situation-a brutal
dictatorship being the only thing keeping the world's most populous
country from sliding into chaos-is exacerbated greatly by the fact that
China now has virtually ALL of the world's industrial capacity. There is
no more industrial base in America, Europe, Japan. It's all been moved
to China. If China descends into chaos the rest of the world will go
with it. Blame your beloved capitalists for being too willing to cozy up
to a regime that could be toppled by a mass movement like Falun Gong and
that allows massive pollution and 10 cent a day wages.

The DMZ is the most fortified border on earth. The North Koreans have
gone to great lengths to make sure that nobody crosses. I'm not so sure
that hordes of refugees will be flooding across.

If the N.Korean side of the DMZ becomes demilitarized because of a regime
colapse you can be sure that waves of refugees will find a way across or
around
it. China would also see refugees.

Maybe to start with there would be a lot of North Koreans attempting to
cross, but it might die down after a while. There was no massive refugee
crisis when European Communism collapsed. Most of the East Germans who
fled into West Berlin right after the wall came down eventually went
back home.

I don't think you'd see a democracy spring up in NK. They've had 60
years of harsh Stalinist rule. You'd more likely see a situation like in
Afghanistan before the Taliban, with a lot of local party bosses
becoming warlords and establishing fiefdoms.

I see you are assuming that another brutal regime will take hold.
But that is not the scenario I am discussing. Besides another
regime would simply collapse as quikely as the old.

I didn't say that another centralized dictatorship would take hold, I
said that the country would descend into warlord rule and possibly civil
war. There is a difference.

China may send troops to
ensure "stability".

Indeed, and that would be viewed as a very provactive move in Seoul
and the West.

But I don't think that it would trigger a western invasion of NK.

But I don't think China will invade South Korea. The
US is a major trading partner for China; the CCP is NOT going to start a
nuclear war with the US in the name of Communism.

Has it occured to you that whomever overthrows Kim Jong Il may well be
"friendly" with the South?

You're assuming that a pro Western ruler replaces Kim. But I'm saying
that no ruler may replace Kim, that NK would break up instead, and that
would likely be much worse than a pro West regime in the North being
toppled by the Chinese.

If China thinks they can keep Kim from nuking Seoul, they may be sadly
mistaken. Unlike the massive bureaucracy that Communism has become in
China, in NK Kim is the end all and be all of government. He is totally
cut off from the rest of the world and lives in a dream world and is
much more likely to start a war with the US to "free" SK. If the US is
forced to invade NK because of Kim, the US will likely reach a quid pro
quo with the Chinese, keeping the Yalu River as the boundary between US
and Chinese troops. The mutual trade between China and the US means that
all out war between the two is not likely, even if China invades Taiwan.
The US establishment is not willing to have a nuclear war over Taiwan or
Korea.

You make many assumptions here about many countries. China is well known
for saber rattling against Taiwan. Taiwan businesses invest heavily in
China as
well. The scenario of any nuclear exchange in the region is very remote.
Regarding
N.Korea, even if Kim Jong Il does indeed have a "couple" of nuclear tipped
weapons, considering the latest intelligence and if his military is even
slightly
coherent", they would likely depose of him and refrain.

It's possible, but there would be enough loyalists to go ahead with the
Bomb drop and force a US invasion.

In any case, nuclear weapons aside, the Korean peninsular would become
the immediate focus of attention in the West and Beijing and Seoul would
have
many urgent and pressing meetings to attend.

This at least is true.


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"running dogg" wrote

What you are likely to see in China is the collapse of their banks,
which
are
already insolvent and technically bankrupt, and the disentigration of
the
CCP.
Neither of which will likely spell the end of their manufacturing base.
In
the very short term there may be disruptions but it would quickly
recover
and without the CCPoverhead possibly become much more robust.

Possibly. But China has a tradition of warlord rule, and for much of its
history has been broken into feuding fiefdoms, despite the common
culture and language of the Chinese people. Then again, the same
situation persisted in Italy for a thousand years, and that country is
now stable and prosperous.

China has been under the CCP's vicious rule for over half a century.
There are very few to zero individuals still alive in China who are even
remotely aware of its pre-CCP history - they have been brainwashed.
Very few individuals in any sense of power know anything else but
CCP burocracy let alone some type of organized civil war.

The argument that the CCP provides "stability" and the people would
succumb to civil warfare is warn out CCP propaganda. If anything, a
collapse of the CCP form of government would bring the nation together
to rebuild a more Democratic form of government.

Chinese people are not ignorant pheasants like many seem to make them
out to be. Take a look at your University and its graduate and PHD
students, especially in the math & sciences. I willing to bet that a
significant percentage are Taiwanese or mainland Chinese. Granted, a
large majority still live very poorly in the countryside. But today, the
average urban citizen is fairly worldly considering the amount
of censorship in media.

Please review the circumstances that revolved around Tiananmen Square
in 1989 and please tell me if what you have seen there looked anything like
a civil war? It wasn't even close and the military came out with blood all

over them. This give credence to the propaganda about "stability" and its
irrelevence to China today.

I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

Your love of the CCP has seriously blinded you to a brutal murderous
regime
which is deeply hated by their own people.

You seem to make this same curious error over and over again, equating
any concern about China's stability and potential disruptions to the
west if that stability were to be disrupted with love of the CCP.

You seem to have swallowed the CCP propaganda hook, line and sinker.
The CCP keeps spouting this same B.S. over and over again. I guess
if it is repeated often enough people, like you, will believe it. This
is a big insult to the Chinese people. The Chinese people don't need the
CCP. In fact the opposite is true!

I
doubt most westerners love the CCP, I sure don't. But it's the only
thing holding the country together. Like I said, China has a long,
bloody history of warlordism and civil war, and any collapse of the CCP
might bring a return to the bad old days. This bad situation-a brutal
dictatorship being the only thing keeping the world's most populous
country from sliding into chaos-is exacerbated greatly by the fact that
China now has virtually ALL of the world's industrial capacity. There is
no more industrial base in America, Europe, Japan. It's all been moved
to China.

I'm sorry old boy, but this is pure garbage and sounds very much like what
is written in the CCP run newspapers in Beijing - I'm not joking. There are
many able countries that will quikely and happilly "tool up" to fill
American
orders for product. Prices may rise but to what degree will be determined
by the marketplace as it should. That assumes that there will be some kind
of collapse of its manufacturing base. That is highly unlikely considering
the involvement of western interests and western company presence.

If China descends into chaos the rest of the world will go
with it. Blame your beloved capitalists for being too willing to cozy up
to a regime that could be toppled by a mass movement like Falun Gong and
that allows massive pollution and 10 cent a day wages.

Ah ha! Now you are talking! Those big bad Capitalists again. LOL
I'll go on a political limb here and will tell you this much.
Had dear leader Nixon and Kissinger NOT reproached Deng Xiaoping
to "open up", the USSR would still be in existence today. Why? Because
the USSR would likely be profiting from China's growth all this time.
Albeit
not as robust.

Deng Xiaoping knew China had to open up to avoid an economic disaster that
we
now see in N.Korea. If the US wasn't economically friendly with China it
would have looked elsewhere and anywhere to accomplish this economic goal.
China would have solicited economic development from any CCP friendly
country
including our enemies. N.Korea is an example of this idea - selling missile
technology (from China likely) to Pakistan, Iran and Syria. Money
counterfeiting
and drug trafficking to name a few. Hardly a comforting alternative to the
west.

Nixon and Kissinger knew this and made a brilliant move by isolating the
USSR.

*** The idea to engage China is a valid one. However, the moral and ethical
degree to
which this engagement has progressed by the Capitalists is now questionable
in
my opinion. *** I think that there is now some realization of this within
the US
House and Senate.

If the N.Korean side of the DMZ becomes demilitarized because of a
regime
colapse you can be sure that waves of refugees will find a way across or
around
it. China would also see refugees.

Maybe to start with there would be a lot of North Koreans attempting to
cross, but it might die down after a while. There was no massive refugee
crisis when European Communism collapsed. Most of the East Germans who
fled into West Berlin right after the wall came down eventually went
back home.

I would suspect that after a reunification on the peninsula the phenomenon
will
likely repeat itself there. Unemployment will rise and the deficit will
rise. It
will be a difficult time for the Koreans but not impossible. ref: Germany.

I didn't say that another centralized dictatorship would take hold, I
said that the country would descend into warlord rule and possibly civil
war. There is a difference.

After a reconsiliation with the South I highly doubt there will be
widespread
civil unrest. These people have been under Dear Leaders thumb for a very
long time and would have very little resources or even a will to pull it
off.

But I don't think that it would trigger a western invasion of NK.

There won't be a "military" invasion. There will likely be some kind of
Korean - Chinese - Japanese - Russian & US cooperation with UN
involvment and guidance.

Has it occured to you that whomever overthrows Kim Jong Il may well be
"friendly" with the South?

You're assuming that a pro Western ruler replaces Kim. But I'm saying
that no ruler may replace Kim, that NK would break up instead, and that
would likely be much worse than a pro West regime in the North being
toppled by the Chinese.

What I am saying is that there is some evidence of certain elements in the
N.Korean military which would like to remove Dear Leader. These elements
seem to be aware of N.Korea's economic predicament and are more willing
to reproach the south with fewer conditions than Dear Leader impresses.
As I said earlier the Dear Leader is a proxy, puppet if you will, of China.
It is certainly clear. As China has all the strings neccessary to "pull the
plug"
on Dear Leader but refuses to do so as evidenced in the latest "round of
talks".
This is clear indication of a certain level of resistance within the CCP
towards
a pro-South reunification outcome.

A reminder - recall the recent massive railroad station explosion which
occured
within hours after the Dear Leaders return from Beijing. The Dear Leader is
afraid
to fly! Should make you ponder.

It's possible, but there would be enough loyalists to go ahead with the
Bomb drop and force a US invasion.

In which case the US would have a green light - not something China wishes
to
contend with I am sure you will agree.

In any case, nuclear weapons aside, the Korean peninsular would become
the immediate focus of attention in the West and Beijing and Seoul would
have many urgent and pressing meetings to attend.

This at least is true.

A reminder - recall the recent massive railroad station explosion near
Pyongyang which occured within hours after the Dear Leader had
passed through that very same railroad station upon his return from
Beijing.
The Dear Leader is afraid to fly! Should make you ponder.

I did some flying in some fixed wing Aircraft and Helicopters when I was
in the Army,but I didn't like it.(the flying,that is) So,I guess I am
afraid of flying too.My feet are meant for staying on the ground.
cuhulin

You have it just about right running dogg. Good collection of points here.

running dogg wrote:

Li Changchun wrote:


"uncle arnie" wrote
How much western debt does China hold? I think it is quite high,
particularly for the USA. This would mean grave economic problems for
the west if China is "on the verge of collapse".

Hardly, in case of a China banking collapse financial arrangements can
always be made.
We are talking about paper after all. Not gold bullion. Perhaps WalMart
stock
will collapse but the $US always rallys in times of serious worldwide
calamity.
The Chinese $Yuan may become worthless.

The Chinese are currently financing the US government. They hold a BIG
chunk of US debt. The West has shifted all its manufacturing facilities
to China so in the event of a China collapse there might be serious
shortages of most goods. I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

As for N Korea, they are so
disconnected from the world, no-one would notice except for those of us
who
like the comedy of their SW broadcasts.

You are seriously mistaken. If the hermit kingdom collapses there will
be a human
tragedy on the peninsula. The economic costs to S.Korea will be worse
than
what Germany has had to endure since the fall of the Berlin wall.
Assuming
hoards of refugees begin to cross the DMZ. Which is very likely.

The DMZ is the most fortified border on earth. The North Koreans have
gone to great lengths to make sure that nobody crosses. I'm not so sure
that hordes of refugees will be flooding across.

Then there is the geo-political question. Will China invade N.Korea and
claim
its territory for repayment of decades of economic support? Or will China
allow
a free and Democratic state to prosper on its economically suffering
Northeast
border with the peninsula? If so it would be a first as well as a
strategic blow
to the Communist regime in Beijing.

I don't think you'd see a democracy spring up in NK. They've had 60
years of harsh Stalinist rule. You'd more likely see a situation like in
Afghanistan before the Taliban, with a lot of local party bosses
becoming warlords and establishing fiefdoms. China may send troops to
ensure "stability". But I don't think China will invade South Korea. The
US is a major trading partner for China; the CCP is NOT going to start a
nuclear war with the US in the name of Communism.

China historically prefers weak, non-threatening regimes as neighbors and
works
to maintain its supremacy over all its immediate neighbors.

Korean history extends into what is now Northeast China. There are
Korean
claims to these lands. China is well aware of these claims and has
summarily
rewrote its history books in an attempt to erase these claims.

The best scenario for the West would be if one collapses immediately
followed by the other. Neither regime would stand which is why China
will not pressure N.Korea in regard to nuclear negotiations. China can
very easily resolve the nuclear issue since all of N.Korea's energy comes
from China. Simply turn off a spigot and flick the big switch and Kim
Jong Il
is complete history.

If China thinks they can keep Kim from nuking Seoul, they may be sadly
mistaken. Unlike the massive bureaucracy that Communism has become in
China, in NK Kim is the end all and be all of government. He is totally
cut off from the rest of the world and lives in a dream world and is
much more likely to start a war with the US to "free" SK. If the US is
forced to invade NK because of Kim, the US will likely reach a quid pro
quo with the Chinese, keeping the Yalu River as the boundary between US
and Chinese troops. The mutual trade between China and the US means that
all out war between the two is not likely, even if China invades Taiwan.
The US establishment is not willing to have a nuclear war over Taiwan or
Korea.



Li Changchun wrote:

junk snipped

N.Korea

N. Korea launches harsh crackdown
(interesting read)



http://interestalert.com/brand/sitei...02aaa05d83.upi
&Sys=rmmiller&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World% 20News
__________________________________________________ __

Enjoy the Voice of Korea propaganda in English:

0100-0200 Z
11735 13760 15180 kHz to N.America

1000-1100 Z
9335 9850 kHz to N.America

1300-1400 Z
9335 11710 kHz to N.America
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe

1500-1600 Z
9335 11710 kHz to N.America
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe

1800-1900 Z
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe

2100-2200 Z
4405 7570 12015 kHz to Europe
__________________________________________________ ____________





----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Uncensored-Secure Usenet
News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World!
120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy
via Encryption =----