To support other teams in this area, I participated in their VE sessions
this weekend. Already the flurry of applicants has dropped and attendance
is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels. I hope it is just this area that is
seeing this phenomenon.

Dee, N8UZE

On Mar 4, 12:49 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
To support other teams in this area, I participated in their VE sessions
this weekend. Already the flurry of applicants has dropped and attendance
is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels. I hope it is just this area that is
seeing this phenomenon.

Dee, N8UZE

well it is what Iwould expect dee first weekend you get a lot of the
die hards like myself then other will start drifting in

"Dee Flint" wrote in
:

To support other teams in this area, I participated in their VE
sessions this weekend. Already the flurry of applicants has dropped
and attendance is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels. I hope it is
just this area that is seeing this phenomenon.


That isn't too surprising. The first several months are likely to
be upgrades from people who paid attention to the change in testing.

I suspect the next batch will be Hams that found out about the
change right around now. This group will be upgrading about 6 - 12 months
from the change.

Absolutely new people won't be testing until around a year from
now.

This is all give or take a bit. In our area, we are averaging a
little over 1 per month, even before the change. I consider that good
growth.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

"Mike Coslo" wrote in message
36...
"Dee Flint" wrote in
:

To support other teams in this area, I participated in their VE
sessions this weekend. Already the flurry of applicants has dropped
and attendance is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels. I hope it is
just this area that is seeing this phenomenon.


That isn't too surprising. The first several months are likely to
be upgrades from people who paid attention to the change in testing.

I suspect the next batch will be Hams that found out about the
change right around now. This group will be upgrading about 6 - 12 months
from the change.

Absolutely new people won't be testing until around a year from
now.

This is all give or take a bit. In our area, we are averaging a
little over 1 per month, even before the change. I consider that good
growth.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

Well you can't tell if that is growth or not unless you are sure that no one
died or let their license lapse. I generally get 2 to 4 brand new licensees
per session but that probably just barely offsets those that are lost.

Dee, N8UZE

"Dee Flint" wrote in
:

This is all give or take a bit. In our area, we are averaging a
little over 1 per month, even before the change. I consider that good
growth.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

Well you can't tell if that is growth or not unless you are sure that
no one died or let their license lapse. I generally get 2 to 4 brand
new licensees per session but that probably just barely offsets those
that are lost.


I have a pretty good track of the hams in our area. In the last
year, we have had ~ 2 SK's. Lapses are a little more difficult, but still
not too many. The local club has grown at around 1 per month. Club growth
probably can't be sustained at that level. But all appearances are that
in this area, we are doing well.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -

On Sun, 04 Mar 2007 12:49:20 -0500, Dee Flint wrote:

To support other teams in this area, I participated in their VE sessions
this weekend. Already the flurry of applicants has dropped and
attendance is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels. I hope it is just
this area that is seeing this phenomenon.

I haven't even held our first session since the rule changes and that
won't occur until March 27. There is some interest around here in
upgrades and none have indicated much urgency until later on anyway, so
it will work out.

As for new hams, we average one every couple of years. Yes, I'm in the
sticks...

73, de Nate

--

"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds,
the pessimist fears this is true."

On Mar 4, 7:24 pm, Mike Coslo wrote:
"Dee Flint" wrote m:

To support other teams in this area, I participated in their VE
sessions this weekend. Already the flurry of applicants has dropped
and attendance is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels. I hope it is
just this area that is seeing this phenomenon.

That isn't too surprising. The first several months are likely to
be upgrades from people who paid attention to the change in testing.

I suspect the next batch will be Hams that found out about the
change right around now. This group will be upgrading about 6 - 12 months
from the change.

Absolutely new people won't be testing until around a year from
now.

This is all give or take a bit. In our area, we are averaging a
little over 1 per month, even before the change. I consider that good
growth.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -


Well time will tell. When I have occasion to mention ham radio, the
responses tell me that most people don't even know it exists let alone
what the requirements are. Changing the requirements won't change
that.

Dee, N8UZE

On Mar 5, 1:56 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
On Mar 4, 7:24 pm, Mike Coslo wrote:



Well time will tell. When I have occasion to mention ham radio, the
responses tell me that most people don't even know it exists let alone
what the requirements are. Changing the requirements won't change
that.

correct as far as you go

the next step in requruiting is making the sale so to sayTHAT is where
the requirement matters

Dee, N8UZE- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

On Mar 4, 12:49 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

Already the flurry of applicants has dropped and attendance
is close to that of pre-Feb 23 levels.

This is not surprising. Amateur radio has already had a "code-free"
license for 15 years. The claims that there was this huge untapped
reservoir of new licensees just waiting for a "code-free HF" license
was never supported by any facts -- just supposition and anecdotal
claims of "deaf PhD EE friends". Why anyone would even think there
would be this huge wave of new applicants is beyond me.


On Mar 4, 7:24 pm, Mike Coslo wrote:

That isn't too surprising. The first several months are likely to
be upgrades from people who paid attention to the change in testing.

Frankly, I suspect that 99.9% of the activity generated from this
latest licensing change will be nothing but upgrades.

As I posted on another thread, I predict at the end of the year we
will see a 0 to -1% "growth" in ham radio resulting from these
changes.


I suspect the next batch will be Hams that found out about the
change right around now. This group will be upgrading about 6 - 12 months
from the change.

Given the current state of the theory examinations, I suspect you'll
see an upgrade curve which is steep at first, tapers off, and then
falls rapidly as well, as the pool of people who are interested in
upgrading is exhausted.

Frankly, not everyone is interested in upgrading. My family has
Advanced, General, and Tech-class licensees. None of them have any
intention of upgrading, the last I knew.


Absolutely new people won't be testing until around a year from
now.

I'm not quite sure how you formulate this claim. It certainly doesn't
take a year to study to pass an amateur radio examination. People
finding out about the licensing changes now could have a license in-
hand virtually immediately. Certainly within 60 to 90 days.

We've already had a codeless license for 15 years. All we have now are
codeless HF licenses as well. Is there going to be this huge influx of
people who never got licensed as Techs because they couldn't operate
HF? I seriously doubt it.

I'm sure there will be some, but the number will be statistically
insignificant.


73
kh6hz