Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that
date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.


Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my blocked
senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have your
guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more
KH6O: 5% more to 10% more --- Added 12/30/06


Dee, N8UZE

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
. ..
Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that
date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.


Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my
blocked
senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have your
guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more
KH6O: 5% more to 10% more --- Added 12/30/06


Note: KH6O has been asked to revise his guess as it does not meet the 4% max
range stated above. Your max minus you min cannot exceed 4%.

Dee, N8UZE

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
news
Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.

Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my
blocked senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have
your
guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more
KH6O: 6% more to 10% more --- Added 12/30/06, changed to per KH6O to
meet guidelines above.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
...
Dee, N8UZE



I predict that things are in such a mess, God will have to come before
we see much better.

Regards,
JS

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
Dee Flint wrote:
...
Dee, N8UZE

I predict that things are in such a mess, God will have to come before we
see much better.

Regards,
JS

But do you wish to submit a guess?

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
...
But do you wish to submit a guess?

Dee, N8UZE



Guess? No. Logic? Yes.

There will be a lag in new membership, perhaps numbers will begin a slow
growth--perhaps a rapid jump then a slowing off--hard to tell ...

Then, all of a sudden, some magazine, or some group like MENSA will pick
it up, or the college crowd will accept it as "being hip", etc., etc.,
anyway, it will catch on--trendy to be a ham. There will be some new
technology which finally begins to trickle into amateur radio and new
designs in the stagnated equipment; then all of a sudden it will spring
full-blown into "being vogue."

Who knows how, when or where--the important thing is the door now has
been breached. The dead hams fingers have been torn from their death
grips on the hobby. Now, IT CAN HAPPEN!

We all can help, but who can say who will finally be recognized as the
trigger ...

Regards,
JS

From: John Smith I on Sat, Dec 30 2006 9:42 pm

Dee Flint wrote:
...
But do you wish to submit a guess?

Dee, N8UZE

Guess? No. Logic? Yes.

There will be a lag in new membership, perhaps numbers will begin a slow
growth--perhaps a rapid jump then a slowing off--hard to tell ...

Everyone doing the guessing is working with OLD paradigms.
There's NEVER been a time when there was NO code test, at
least since 1934. Nobody's been exposed to that kind of
environment/situation...all they've got is the old times
when there was ALWAYS a code test.

Then, all of a sudden, some magazine, or some group like MENSA will pick
it up, or the college crowd will accept it as "being hip", etc., etc.,
anyway, it will catch on--trendy to be a ham. There will be some new
technology which finally begins to trickle into amateur radio and new
designs in the stagnated equipment; then all of a sudden it will spring
full-blown into "being vogue."

That's entirely possible but I'd say Unlikely with a
capital U. Just too many old farts ready to jump in
with the standard "they 'know' what is good for ham
radio!" AS IF. :-) [if they 'already knew' why
didn't they DO something about it?]

But, but, but, the NEW DESIGNS in "stagnated equipment"
have ALREADY HAPPENED, beginning between 30 and 20 years
ago. ALL by manufacturers, generally off-shore...by
Yaesu, Kenwood, Icom, JRC. Ten-Tec is struggling to stay
in the market (they are a USA company) but isn't achieving
market dominance at all. Note: W1AW uses Harris
transmitters (a pro user market dominant company).

All them handheld VHF and above radios for the US ham
market were pioneered for commercial and military users,
not hams. [this newsgroup doesn't have regulars who
bother with the world above 30 MHz so they are unfamiliar
with it] [maybe Hans Brakob does...but Hans hasn't been
around much in the last year]

Who knows how, when or where--the important thing is the door now has
been breached. The dead hams fingers have been torn from their death
grips on the hobby. Now, IT CAN HAPPEN!

I'll go with that...but it's been a bit late. When one
American in three had a cellphone subscription (two years
ago according to the Bureau of Census) it is UNlikely
that morsemanship on HF to "talk to foreign lands" is
going to be some catchy, with-it motivation. Ordinary
folk can just dial direct on the telephone system at
lesser cost than paying $2K for a "free" ham station.

We all can help, but who can say who will finally be recognized as the
trigger ...

An ACTOR could begin the publicity. Imagine...a HAM ACTOR!
I can see the ARRL news headlines now...BSEG

Of course, the L.A. area is rather FULL of "ham actors"
who only need AMPAS and SAG "licenses" (actually registry)
to do their "ham" thing. :-)

"There's no business like show business..." :-)

Regards,
LA

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
Dee Flint wrote:
...
But do you wish to submit a guess?

Dee, N8UZE

Guess? No. Logic? Yes.

There will be a lag in new membership, perhaps numbers will begin a slow
growth--perhaps a rapid jump then a slowing off--hard to tell ...

Then, all of a sudden, some magazine, or some group like MENSA will pick
it up, or the college crowd will accept it as "being hip", etc., etc.,
anyway, it will catch on--trendy to be a ham. There will be some new
technology which finally begins to trickle into amateur radio and new
designs in the stagnated equipment; then all of a sudden it will spring
full-blown into "being vogue."

Who knows how, when or where--the important thing is the door now has been
breached. The dead hams fingers have been torn from their death grips on
the hobby. Now, IT CAN HAPPEN!

We all can help, but who can say who will finally be recognized as the
trigger ...

Regards,
JS

Put a number and time frame to your "logic". If you can't then it's still a
guess just like all of ours. For the pool that I'm doing, the time frame is
fixed at one year from the implementation date.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
...

Dee:

I don't have to point out to you that I am UN-politically correct,
indeed, I take great pride in being so ...

So, I am going to lay it on you straight. Because you are here in a
male dominated HOBBY--from the get-go, I accept you are probably a bit
"taller" than most women you stand next to. I'd also suspect you
capable of a bit more logic than most women I have ever run across, my
present XYL excluded.

What I have presented to you IS LOGIC. Anything more would be "just a
guess." Fools make guesses when logic avails them ...

This is just a means to "belittle" non-CW licensees, I'd expect more
from you--stand away from the "good 'ole boys", now is your chance to
show what metal you are made of ... history is watching.

Please pay close attention to what is occurring here. The good 'ole
boys are about their business as usual, no change. Even, at this point,
the FCC has had to throw it "in their face" that the ploy of using CW to
limit licensees will NO longer be permitted.

Now these hams, who's time has and gone, keep right up with the
insanity--like some alcoholic so addicted to bad behavior, they have
become 'addicted' and can no longer help themselves. These men and
women now need to be seen for what they are. If they hold offices in
amateur institutions or clubs, they need to removed and replaced. They
need to be taken to task, their little control games need to be stopped.
They need to be "put on a shelf, and put away from harming the hobby."

Don't be one of them ...

Warmest regards,
JS

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
Dee Flint wrote:
...

Dee:

I don't have to point out to you that I am UN-politically correct, indeed,
I take great pride in being so ...

So, I am going to lay it on you straight. Because you are here in a male
dominated HOBBY--from the get-go, I accept you are probably a bit "taller"
than most women you stand next to. I'd also suspect you capable of a bit
more logic than most women I have ever run across, my present XYL
excluded.


Well I am a working engineer with a degree in Aerospace Engineering and now
working as an automotive engineer.

What I have presented to you IS LOGIC. Anything more would be "just a
guess." Fools make guesses when logic avails them ...


It is not "logic" when it depends on other, unpredictable factors to cause
the growth. If it it not predictable, it is not yet logic. Logic depends
on the known to project the future. I accept that these are all just
guesses. We are indulging in some idle speculation.

This is just a means to "belittle" non-CW licensees, I'd expect more from
you--stand away from the "good 'ole boys", now is your chance to show what
metal you are made of ... history is watching.


It is in no way intended to "belittle" the non-CW licensees. One of the
arguments was that the CW test requirement kept a significant number of
people out of ham radio. Such statements were made by a wide variety of
people included some who were code tested. Others (including myself)
believe that there are not large numbers of people waiting in the wings to
enter ham radio (upgrade yes, enter no). Well the CW test requirement is
gone. It is perfectly logical to see if it has a significant effect on
amateur radio growth.

The intent of this is to get people to pay attention to the growth or lack
thereof for the very reason that "history is watching". The effect of this
change could be significant in shaping future regulatory changes. It would
be foolish for people and organizations not to watch for the effect.

Please pay close attention to what is occurring here. The good 'ole boys
are about their business as usual, no change. Even, at this point, the
FCC has had to throw it "in their face" that the ploy of using CW to limit
licensees will NO longer be permitted.


1. The CW testing was NEVER intended to limit the number of licensees no
matter what some of the hams said.
2. The CW testing was NEVER intended to be a lid filter no matter what some
of the hams said.
3. The CW testing was NEVER intended to be a right of passage no matter what
some of the hams said.
4. It was intended to test for a knowledge that was deemed reasonable for
every ham to have. I.e. it was one of the basics of amateur radio nothing
more and nothing less. While I believe it is still one of the basics and
should be tested for, the FCC has deemed it otherwise.

Items 1 thru 3 were false arguments and were just as harmful to the amateur
radio community as the false used by those who wished to eliminate the test
(i.e. too hard for otherwise qualified individuals was bogus).


Now these hams, who's time has and gone, keep right up with the
insanity--like some alcoholic so addicted to bad behavior, they have
become 'addicted' and can no longer help themselves. These men and women
now need to be seen for what they are. If they hold offices in amateur
institutions or clubs, they need to removed and replaced. They need to be
taken to task, their little control games need to be stopped. They need to
be "put on a shelf, and put away from harming the hobby."


Well all the hams I know are contacting every Tech they know inside and
outside of the club and telling them about the change and providing them
with the info on test sessions available in the area so they can get ready
and upgrade as soon as possible. I personally know that some of these hams
provding this info on the change were violently opposed to dropping the code
test requirement. They've moved beyond that and moved to the "Elmer" mode.

I've got a double size team of VEs who have committed to show up for the
test sessions for the next few months in case we get an influx of new and
upgrading applicants.

Don't be one of them ...

Warmest regards,
JS

Dee, N8UZE