"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Bill Sohl" wrote:

I tend to agree with that prediction since Novice already had code credit
and the only thing between the Novice and Tech has been the written
test itself. If a Novice hasn't upgraded in the last 5 or 10 years,
odds are they have dropped from the ham radio ranks already.

I disagree somewhat. There will always be a segment which is 'inactive',
but will keep their license active so they can pick it up again someday
when they want.

After the restructuring of 2000, I wondered why we didn't see a
mass-exodus from the General and the Advanced ranks to Extra. There has
been a continual decrease in the General/Advanced licenses and increase in
the Extra class, but not as much as I would have expected. Without that
nasty, 'hard' 20wpm code test, wouldn't you expect those licensees to
flock to Extra?

Perhaps a segment of those licensees are either inactive, or simply happy
with the operating privileges they have and have no need to upgrade? If
so, wouldn't those same reasons apply to some Novices not upgrading?


Yes the same reasons would apply and I do believe that the number of Novice
licensees won't drop to zero. However looking at the slope of the curve
from the time the no-code Tech was implemented to now continues to show a
steep and steady drop. The rate of decline has been nearly constant with no
sign yet of leveling out for that license class. I would expect to see a
few hundred Novices continuing to renew as Novices but they will be
statistically insignificant.

Looking at the lack of activity in the Novice segments of the HF bands, the
novice segments in the 220 band, and the fact that we now have no Novice
licensees left in our local club, it would appear to me that the trend has
been for the active Novices to upgrade and the inactive ones not to renew on
the whole. There will be exceptions of course.


My wish for the New Year is that this forum once again become a
place for rational thought and discussion. The personal attacks
and other slimeball commentary by those who know who they are
should end.

When you put most of the nitwits in your killfile, the group is
surprisingly quiet and civil

73
KH6HZ


Dee, N8UZE