"KH6HZ" wrote in message
...
"Dee Flint" wrote:


Yes the same reasons would apply and I do believe that the number of
Novice licensees won't drop to zero. However looking at the slope of the
curve from the time the no-code Tech was implemented to now continues to
show a steep and steady drop.

This is entirely expected. With the codeless Tech license in 92 the
de-facto entry-level license became the Tech. Your observations are right
on.


The rate of decline has been nearly constant with no sign yet of leveling
out for that license class. I would expect to see a few hundred Novices
continuing to renew as Novices but they will be statistically
insignificant.

Yes, at some point I think that steep drop will begin to level off. Much
like a graph of Y = 1/X



The only question is where will the asymptote lie on that graph.

Dee, N8UZE