RadioBanter - IBOC Crap News

"D Peter Maus" wrote in message
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David Eduardo wrote:
"D Peter Maus" wrote in message
...
Well, of course it's a vicious circle. Most everything in Radio is.
You remember how tough it is to get hired until you have experience, but
you can't get experience until you get hired. Vicious circles in Radio
aren't news. But the fact remains.

That said, it's content that drives listening. If the content is of no
interest to the target, HD isn't going to help. What's not happening,
is there's no change in content to accompany HD implementation. WGN
didn't change content when HD was installed. And I'm sure that Ace will
point out that WBBM's content is the same as before HD was installed.
So, HD is only really benefitting those who are already using AM. And
those younger demos you wish to attract with audio quality, will be just
as unintersted in the content after HD, as the stations themselves are
in those who listen outside of the city grade contour.

But, until there are receivers out there... nobody is going to cange much
in a succesful (still) format. The changes will come in second tier
formats, I think... and in modifications of existing ones to broaden
them. WGN has to change, as it is in a revenue death spin, and is hurting
the Trib's stock price single handed.

So, WGN is waiting for receivers to fall into listeners' hands before
lowering their demo target?

I don't think they know how to change the demos on that one. This may be an
example of the casualties of very old leaning AMs. They will have to very
much remake the station for it to work for anyone.

Once sampled, if the audio quality is attractive but the content hasn't
changed, there will likely not be a resampling. Leaving HD to benefit
those who already listen and enjoy.

I think once there are enough receivers, stations with very old profiles
will make changes, even at the risk of losing the big 12+ numbers. WGN
coiuld lose 60% of its audience, and yet not be any less salable today. They
will probably survey the under 55 listeners to see what they like and focus
there, killing the 55+ content.

Master AM programmer Gabe Hobbs, while at WFLA, instructed the hosts to
address the elderly as, "are you one of those blue haired old ladies
from..." or "sir, would you put your dentures in so we can understand you?"
This essentially blew away the oldedr crowd, and was perceived as amusing by
the younger listeners who then felt the station was "theirs." WGN will
eventually have to do that.

But not providing anything more attractive than audio quality for those
who generally do not. If audio quality were the only selling point to
KEZK, it would still be Schulke. And WRTH would have never been 'Beautiful
Music.' It's the content that attracted and held listeners to each.
Granted this is in an era when FM still had novelty listening, but the
point is, when the audience began to shift from AM to FM, it was the
content on the stations of either band that changed to create viable
audiences...audio quality was only a factor where content requiring audio
quality was concerned. Music went to FM, where off main music formats and
talk took over AM.

There were several qualities for youth. First, most FMs positioned as having
less ocmmercials and less talk. Second, they emphasized the quality.

AM became solid talk more due to the repeal of the Fairness Doctrine than
anything else. A few operators, like Randy Michaels, realized tha the "dead"
band had life for talk for over-35 listeners.

In the early 70's, I put what was the 4th independent (not a spinn off from
a simulcat FM) FM CHR on in Birmingham (First were WMYQ, WDRQ and KLSQ) and
the biggest factors were the low commercial load and the quality. But I
think success came as a product of both, not one or the other. The station
hit #1 in its first year, too.

And this was also at a time when AM was still wideband. On my McKay, an
well done AM station could hold its own against an FM station without
breathing hard. Even doing music.

It was also the era when cheap receivers deemphasized AM, and flooded the
market. In PR in '75 and on, Grego Ogrinosky and I discovered adjusting one
of the earliest tri-band audio processors using an assortment of radios from
k-Mart.

If it sounded nice on my Dymek, I knew it was going to sound bad on the
average radio.

This was Leonard Kahn's sacred evangel: that AM is capable of the same, if
not better audio, than native FM. That is to say, without the
pre/de-emphasis that gives FM it's lower noise figure. Without that,
audio quality of FM sux.

The problem is that Lenard cost AM the time advantage. In 1978, AM had
nearly 60% of all lsiteneing. In 1982, it had less than 50%. It was already
over. Today, only by riding on an FM based system on the same chip do we
have any hope.

What I think will happen is that many second tier stations, ones that co ver
just enough, but are not the top talker or sports staiton, will try formats
that can be viable via HD. It will expand the raqnge of offerings, and make
sush stations viable.

Keep in mind that most markets have only 3 or 4 viable AMs. Some, like DC,
have none.

Just look at Chicago... 560, 670, 890, 780 are the only fully viable AMs for
the metro. Then there are second tier ones, like 1000, 1160... and after
that, nothing.

Phoenix has only 2. San Diego has 1. San Francisco has 3, Cleveland has,
maybe 2. Miami has one. Atlanta has 1. St. Louis has two. All the other AMs
are less than perfect coverage, or totally defective.

That's exactly my point...it's a gamble. A crap shoot. Targeting the
superficiality and subjective perception of audio quality. While the
real attraction to listening is content.

No station today will do a youjnger A format. There is still time to
adapt as HD gets into user hands. This is a 5 year issue. Keep in mind
that satellite has talken 5 years to get to around 11 million
subscribers. Of course, this is a poor analogy as satellite seems to have
hit a wall... and may truly never be viable financially.

I think the marginal but potential stations will do new formats. Most of
these are in the hands of larger companies, and they will. invest in the
facilities.

And yet, you yourself have admitted that AM may not have 5 years to
make it. The deathknell may sound before that. So, with time of the
essence, content change must begin quickly, or the losses due to IBOC rash
and stagnant content of sampled HD quality may be irretrievable.

AM has the time between now and when so little of hte audience is under 55
that they are not viable as a business. That means that it starts getting
difficult in 5 to 7 years, and horrible in 10. If FM HD succeeds, then it
would drage AM along.

But the growth is in existing older formats on stations that were not
doing well, like KLOK. Its a stop-gap until HD makes younger formats
viable. Our main Miami AM station has an average age of 72!

Hold on...let me sit down with THAT shocker.

Look at WGN. Average age is 57 now. The heritage AMs are getting really old.

Our WAQI is a heritage Cuban station. The listeners are the original
imigrants who grew up in Cuba. Our WQ BA has an average age of 41, as we put
a younger format on it. WAQI has nearly 3 times the numbers, but we feel HD
will help WQBA as we will eventually have to transform WAQI.

$149 car radio this week. 6 others, from the Tivoli on down were
announced.

Announced is one thing. Available is another.

The car radios are shipping. One of our talents in Houston got one at an
audio place... when we switched on HD2 on KLTN.

And the announcements are for products a month and a half or more out.
With IBOC rash trashing listening in my area for more than a year, now
listeners--the ones in my neighborhood that I can directly observe the
listening habits of--have moved to other outlets. Most of them iPod. With
a few to satellite. The rest have moved to FM.

If you listen to the racket from Wall Street, they feel satellite may never
make it. Its window is closing, they signed all the disenfranchised and
early adopters, and they feel the price / value equation does not work for
the rest of America.

A mere announcement now...well, if you wanted to turn over the entire
audience in a short time, this would be the way to do it.

Supposedly there will be about 10 choices on the shelves by labor day.

Then, you're making my point for me. AM-HD is going to benefit only
existing listeners. IN the meantime, trashing the band audibly as any
potential listeners sample content only underscored that FM is a better
option for them. Younger, or older.

No, in our case, we are aiming at 35-44, and waiting for HD to start.

None of the stations I have studied gets any real listening outside of
its 5 mv/m signal area (and what there is is suspect... probably done in
the car, etc) and most is inside the 10 mv/m. In LA, nearly all our
listening is inside the 15 mv/m due to the high noise levels in this
market.

When I say that HD puts content off limits to potential listeners, I'm
not referring to those listeners outside of a market. I'm talking about
listeners inside the market who are not graced with a city grade signal.
WLS, the classic example here, does not put 15mv/m into Lake County. But
listenership is, or at least was, quite high in Lake County. But with IBOC
rash now sizzling up and down the dial, WLS has been very difficult to
capture cleanly. Or on some days, listen to at all. We're not talking
about DXing...we're talking about local listening. That's been put off
limits by IBOC rash, and yet, solutions have not been widely available.

This is a typical problem. The CD started slow. The hardware was costly, so
not many CDs put out. Slowly, the prices went down and the software
increased. But no manufacturer is going to produce until most of America has
HD stations.

Doing nothing may not be an alternative, but it may be better than doing
something that produces more immediate harm than potential long term good.

All of us are gambling. But the fact that no major owner is selling AM shows
a lot of faith in HD.

There has to be a better way. But it would take FCC reversing
themselves. And we all know how likely that would be.

And that would take too long.