Some thoughts on the future of shortwave broadcasting:

1. Internet over power lines (BPL) is a stillborn technology, arriving ten
years too late to have any impact. The explosion in broadband connectivity
is already here, and it's a wireless future. I'd be surprised if the
technology lasts more than two years, with only minor rollouts in rural
areas. The nail in the coffin will be subscribers losing their connection
every time Joe CB'er down the block keys up. I don't see BPL noise as a
factor in shortwave's future prospects.

2. One by one, the industrialized nations will find the internet a neater,
cheaper way of reaching their target audience, and their shortwave
operations will end, except for

3. DRM, digital broadcasting over shortwave. This broadband technology
cannot continue to co-exist on the same bands as analog broadcasts or
services (just listen how Deutsche Welle's DRM sender trashes the entire
3950-4000 kHz sector of the U.S. 75 meter band). I don't see DRM as
becoming a major player in world broadcasting, because a) the proprietary
nature of the technology will impair its proliferation in cheap encoders
and receivers, and b) satellite-delivered radio can provide a more stable,
more dependable, higher-quality signal to most corners of the globe.

4. More and more antiquated shortwave transmitters - many installed during
the colonial era - will break down, and become a low priority for repair,
because...

5. FM (VHF) coverage will continue to increase in the developing world,
negating the need for regional shortwave operations.

The "DX targets" all of the above will leave will be:

6. Clandestine broadcasters, targeting strife-torn areas where the
broadcasting infrastructure is impaired;

7. Intermittent pirate "broadcasters;" and,

8. Religious broadcasters, who will snap up fire-sale equipment and airtime
and pretty much take over the international broadcast bands.

10. Eventually, world regulatory agencies and the ITU will examine the
state of international broadcasting and see that it has turned exclusively
into a fundraising tool for bible thumpers. At this point, they will be
hard-pressed to justify maintaining the valuable spectrum allocations for
shortwave broadcasting. All of the current shortwave broadcasting bands
will shrink to 100-200 kHz apiece, and some will vanish altogether, as the
worldwide demands for digital data spectrum increases.

11. Our lovely shortwave radios will end up in the same junk heap as
8-track players, becoming collectable antiques in 75 years or so.

Al Q.
NY