Klystron turned on his beam supply Wed, 27 Feb 2008
13:14:52 EST:

AF6AY wrote:
[...]

There isn't any sampling or 'plus or minus percentage' in
regard to the FCC license class information in its database
files. It isn't a result of polling of any kind. It is data
direct from the only agency that grants amateur radio
licenses in the USA. Totals are what they are.

You missed my point.

Not quite, :-), I was replying to Mike Coslo. :-)

The figures for new licenses and expired
licenses are, no doubt, perfectly accurate. However, those quantities
may be eclipsed by two other variables that we cannot quantify:

1) The number of hams who have died but have not yet been dropped from
the rolls because the FCC does not know that they are dead

2) The number of hams who have stopped turning on their radios

The delay of 'knowing who died' in regards to RADIO AMATEUR
licensees is only two years...the grace period. After that
and no renewal, the license expires. LICENSE expiration is
a known as far as the FCC database is concerned.

Since amateur radio is a HOBBY, not a profession, there's NO
requirement that anyone 'report in' on someone's condition.
Some become disenchanted with the activity and just quit or
have too many other activities to continue or might be laid
up with some kind of illness. It was never a requirement to
continue being an amateur radio licensee forever once granted
a license...no more so than being interested in radio long
ago was a mandate to get an amateur radio license. :-)

In my opinion, the granted license totals - even if holding
steady despite general population increases - serves as an
indicator in the USA that the amateur radio service will
continue among all the other radio services here for the
near future.

So, the licensee totals have dropped 2% in about 4 1/2 years
since mid-2003. The last year has seen a 0.15% increase in
totals, a rather insignificant gain, but a gain nonetheless.

Many years ago at a small microwave company, all of us were
curious at the absence of one technician who just didn't
show up for work. The small company, busy at keeping afloat,
didn't investigate until two months had passed. Turned out
the guy just got tired of what he was doing and 'quit'
without notifying anyone. Later, at a larger corporation,
we noticed that one engineer didn't show up for two weeks.
Corporate personnel department was notified he'd been
killed in an automobile accident, his family too involved
with that tragedy to notify his employer. There's many
reasons why someone stops doing what they were doing besides
such extremes.

73, Len AF6AY