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Old February 1st 07, 11:12 AM posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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Posts: 618
Default Will "no code" license result in meaningful growth?


"Carl R. Stevenson" wrote in message
...
Information from within ARRL indicates that last year the ARRL VECs, whose
teams handle over 70% ov al VE sessions, per their claim (which I am not
confirming nor disputing), performed over 5,000 VE sessions (with each
session handling multiple applicants/testees).

According to the report, the average session was 5-10 applicants/testees
... (25-50k testees)

"Reservations" have now jumped to 50-75/session!!!


Is that NEW applicants or merely upgraders. I've had no increase in new
applicants making reservations but a significant increase in upgraders.

Also it is too soon to determine if this is simply a short term phenomenon
or will it sustain itself.

By the way would you care to enter a guess in my pool as to the percent
increase in amateur numbers in one year beginning from the date of the
implementation? Here are the rules and the current pool of guesses.

Rules:

1) Predict amount of change in ARS numbers between the IMPLEMENTATION
date of the R&O for elimination of code testing and one year from that date.
2) Calculation of the number of licenses will be done by N2EY under the
same principals that he uses now to calculate the number of licenses.
3) You must select whole numbers for your percentage.
4) You may select positive or negative percentages.
5) You may select a range but that range may not exceed a total of 4%.
Note that your average will be used to determine who is closest. If the
actual change is outside the range of everyone's guesses then the person
whose limit is closest will be the winner.
6) You must submit your guess no later than six months after the
IMPLEMENTATION date of the R&O.

Anyone else? Note if your guess doesn't show up on the list within a
week, it may mean that my ISP is blocking it or that you are on my
blocked senders list. You may still participate but you will have to have
your guess submitted by someone who is not blocked.

Guesses submitted:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more
KH6O: 6% more to 10% more
KK6J: 12% more to 14% more
KC2HMZ: 5% more --- Added 12/31/06

Dee, N8UZE


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