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#1
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On Feb 25, 10:19�pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
"Klystron" wrote in message ... The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FC C. That assumes an even distribution of expiration dates. That's not necessarily a valid assumption, because events like changes in the vanity call rules have resulted in a lot of expiration dates being clustered in certain years, leaving other years rather lean. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. That depends on which numbers are used. The numbers posted at the beginning of this thread include only current, unexpired licenses, not those in the grace period. So the 5 year number is correct if we assume an even distribution of license expirations by year. The numbers on hamdata.com do include licenses that are expired-but-in-the-grace-period. btw, in Part 97 FCC uses the term "expire" to mean the end of the 10 year license term, not the 2 year grace period. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
#2
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"Dee Flint" wrote:
"Klystron" wrote: [snip] * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. Since most of the "outside world" doesn't and didn't have a clue about the requirements to get a ham license, publicizing the elimination of the Morse code testing would have had little to no impact. The only way it might have helped was in letting people know that ham radio exists. I think that most people who are technically inclined to any reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in their lives. Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill" (yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found repellent. Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I did). * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. Actually, that would bring it up to 7 years (5 year "expected value" on the random variable of 'term of license remaining at time of death' plus 2 years of grace). -- Klystron (a RECENT no-code Extra and GROL w/ Radar) |
#3
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On Feb 26, 8:03 am, Klystron wrote:
"Dee Flint" wrote: "Klystron" wrote: I think that most people who are technically inclined to any reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in their lives. Agreed. But new hams don't just come from the "technically inclined". In fact, in many cases what first interested someone in technology was ham radio. There's also the issue of "old/inaccurate information". I have come across people who were knowledgeable about ham radio 30-40 years ago, but thought it had died out in the 1970s or so. Or who thought that the equipment had to be large, expensive and power-consuming. Others thought ham radio and cb were the same thing, or that cb had replaced ham radio (!) Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill" (yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found repellent. Whatever your view of the *test*, Morse Code is still in wide use in amateur radio. Therefore, by definition, skill in its use is neither useless nor obsolete for hams. Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I did). Of course more new hams would be a Good Thing. However, the relatively slow growth of the past year, while welcome, means that either there aren't so many people out there who were repelled by the test, or that they haven't yet found out it's gone. Or both. I will continue to post these numbers in an effort to document what's happening. Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the expiration date that also needs to be factored in. Actually, that would bring it up to 7 years (5 year "expected value " on the random variable of 'term of license remaining at time of death' plus 2 years of grace). No, 6 years is the right number if the grace period is being considered. Here's why: If the license term is 10 years and the grace period is 2 years and the likelihood of a ham dying is the same for any given year, then the median value is halfway through that combined 12 year period. Which is 6 years. IOW, all else being equal, half of the hams who die in the 12 year license-term-plus-grace-period interval will do so in the first 6 years, and half will do so in the second 6 years. If the grace period is not considered, the median value happens at 5 years. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
#4
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![]() "Klystron" wrote in message ... "Dee Flint" wrote: "Klystron" wrote: [snip] I think that most people who are technically inclined to any reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in their lives. Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill" (yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found repellent. Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I did). That would only be true if they knew what the requirements are. Very few were aware that Morse code was required. No one is deterred by a requirement that they don't even know exists. Dee, N8UZE |
#5
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Klystron wrote:
Alan WA4SCA wrote: So perhaps the code issue wasn't all that important, anyway. Perhaps it is just ONE factor among many. Other factors may include: * the almost complete lack of any reporting of this change to the world outside ham radio. I would like to see a poll that asks people what they know about this. My guess is that if you take one step outside of ham radio circles, you will find that no one knows anything about it. It would be interesting for sure. Ham Radio is one of those niche activities that isn't geared toward the average person. And that really isn't all that bad a thing. Some people pick hobbies because a lot of other people are doing the same thing, Others pick ones like amateur astronomy or Ham radio because its what they enjoy. At any rate, its all good, I think. * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed my mind. 8^) In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. In an overall sense, it is a little hard to come to a definitive idea of how many are active, and most analysis only gives us rough trends. I am pleased that the FCC is issuing a goodly number of new licenses, and that at least the big dropoff is at least negated for the present. I personally am happy with only a small increase in numbers. Given the magnitude of the unknowable quantities described above, we probably cannot tell whether the population of live, active hams has grown or shrunken. Is there a statistician in the house? I would like to see an estimate of the margin of uncertainty of those numbers (plus or minus x percent), given the various unknown factors. I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
#6
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Michael Coslo wrote on Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:52:59 EST:
Klystron wrote: Alan WA4SCA wrote: * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed my mind. 8^) Please define 'older folks.' That remark seems to me to be verging too close to that of a confrontational remark. :-( The practice of operating a radio has never been any sort of test of athletic ability or that of stamina or physical strength only possible by those in the 20s and 30s age groups. The 25th of February 2008 was the first anniversary of my passing my first amateur radio license test. That day was close to the 51st anniversary of my passing my first commercial radiotelephone operator's test at age 23. I was 74 on 25 Feb 07 and it was no more difficult nor easier a year ago than it was to pass a similar FCC test 52 years ago. Since I've kept daily statistics pages from both www.arrl.org and www.hamdata.org, here's some items of information of the past year (25 February, 2007 to 2008) from Hamdata that isn't reported on the ARRL license stats page: No Longer Licensed [Expired] : 26,127 NEW : 27,211 (positive offset by 1,084) Class Changes : 32,021 License numbers, total of ALL amateur radio licenses - 2 July 2003 : 737,938 25 Feb 2008 : 722,588 (deficit of 15,350) About the only thing one can infer from those is that there IS a small increase in newcomers versus expirees...but the total of all licenses is still short of what it was about 4 1/2 years ago. At the present rate of license totals increase, that deficit will not be offset for another 15 to 16 years. The number of existing-license class changes has been larger for this past year than previous one-year periods. That seems to be the major outfall of the latest change in regulations for amateur radio licenses. In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. In an overall sense, it is a little hard to come to a definitive idea of how many are active, and most analysis only gives us rough trends. The word ACTIVE has two meanings as used in this thread. The 'active' amateur radio licensees in the FCC use of the word refers to the license itself; i.e., whether it is valid for legal operation of a transmitter as required by a particular radio service. The word 'active' as many use it elsewhere refers to whether or not one USES a license for the purpose of transmitting (as required by law). There are no definitive statistics on USE insofar as an amateur radio license that I've seen. I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. I disagree. One of the major uses of the first major computer systems was searching, sorting, and compiling totals of some programmed-in sorted-for subject. That was a selling point for the old IBM punched-card tabulator in electro-mechanical IT operations of the 1940s. Today it is greatly aided by the mass memories of 250 GB to 2 TB hard drives...which anyone can buy for reasonable cost off-the-shelf at places like Fry's Electronics. Sorting and searching programming methods have been well-known to IT programmers for half a century. The FCC daily and weekly database files are all available to anyone with high-speed access capabilities. Each is so large in size that using a dial-up connection would require about a half day to download. ALL statistical website providers use the SAME database so none is more 'official' than others. What the statistics providers DO with their data is up to them. There isn't any sampling or 'plus or minus percentage' in regard to the FCC license class information in its database files. It isn't a result of polling of any kind. It is data direct from the only agency that grants amateur radio licenses in the USA. Totals are what they are. 73, Len AF6AY |
#7
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AF6AY wrote:
[...] There isn't any sampling or 'plus or minus percentage' in regard to the FCC license class information in its database files. It isn't a result of polling of any kind. It is data direct from the only agency that grants amateur radio licenses in the USA. Totals are what they are. You missed my point. The figures for new licenses and expired licenses are, no doubt, perfectly accurate. However, those quantities may be eclipsed by two other variables that we cannot quantify: 1) The number of hams who have died but have not yet been dropped from the rolls because the FCC does not know that they are dead 2) The number of hams who have stopped turning on their radios -- Klystron |
#8
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AF6AY wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote on Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:52:59 EST: Klystron wrote: Alan WA4SCA wrote: * the aging (and death) of the ham population. The ten year license term means that, on average, it will be five years before a dead ham is dropped from the rolls, assuming that his heirs do not notify the FCC. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? I know that that is a bit of a non sequitar, but the thought just crossed my mind. 8^) Please define 'older folks.' That remark seems to me to be verging too close to that of a confrontational remark. :-( The practice of operating a radio has never been any sort of test of athletic ability or that of stamina or physical strength only possible by those in the 20s and 30s age groups. That pretty much answers your question, Len. Lots of people who don't "get around very well" can still have a blast. And fortunately there are usually other Hams who can help with the more physical things like putting up antennas, climbing towers, and the like. About the only thing one can infer from those is that there IS a small increase in newcomers versus expirees...but the total of all licenses is still short of what it was about 4 1/2 years ago. At the present rate of license totals increase, that deficit will not be offset for another 15 to 16 years. Pretty much my take on it too. snip I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. I disagree. One of the major uses of the first major computer systems was searching, sorting, and compiling totals of some programmed-in sorted-for subject. Perhaps I should have been more clear. It is hard to determine if a Ham is active or not by just being licensed. An active license is not necessarily a sign of an active ham. Even trying to define "active" is difficult. In that instance, I was referring to Klystron's "active". - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
#9
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On Feb 26, 2:52�pm, Michael Coslo wrote:
Klystron wrote: Alan WA4SCA wrote: Ham Radio is one of those niche activities that isn't geared toward the average person. And that really isn't all that bad a thing. "Radio for its own sake" (which is what amateur radio is really all about) has never been a mainstream sort of thing. Just look at the number of licensed US hams compared to the US population at any time since licensing began. At any rate, its all good, I think. Yep. Isn't it great that Ham radio can be still pursued by older folks? It's great that people of all ages can be hams. Young, old, middleage, newcomers, oldtimers, etc. In sum, I believe that the small change in licensing numbers does not rise to the level of statistical significance. IMHO, what *is* statistically significant is that what was a slow decline has turned into a slow increase. What will be interesting is if it continues long-term. I think that production of stats on active Hams is very difficult, certainly it can't be gleaned from totals. There's also the problem of what constitutes an "active" ham. Obviously someone who is dead or who never gets on the air or otherwise participates isn't "active". But what about the ham who operates a few contests a year? Or the ham who does a lot of building and experimenting, but little operating (and whose operating is mostly to check out the latest project)? The ham whose activity is teaching classes, running VE sessions, Elmering (in person and online), writing, etc.? The ham whose focus is public service? Etc. All sorts of activity - and it's all good! 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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