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From: on 10 May 2005 09:11:19 -0700
wrote: From: on Mon,May 9 2005 1:32 pm Dee Flint wrote: wrote in message oups.com... One problem is that August 1996 is about 8 1/2 years ago. Okay, the "proportions will not have changed 'dramatically' since then" but 8 1/2 years is a rather long time. In the dated March 2005 page of ARRL's Sworn Statement, ARRL indicates a total number of members as of 31 Dec 04 of 151,727 or roughly a thousand LESS than the number in 1996. Not "dramatic." :-) Yes Sweetums, a lousy 0.7% drop in total membership in 8.5 years is not a dramatic anything. In fact it indicates a rather comfortable level of stability so all is well in Newington. Has ARRL membership EVER gotten as high as a quarter of all licensed U.S. amateurs? On "8.5 years is not a dramatic anything," that's a rather gross fluff-off, "sweetums." A child who begins public school at age 5 will be almost out of Middle school in 8 1/2 years. Rather dramatic, I'd say...but, since you are cheerleading the ARRL, you will aerily dismiss it when it comes to the League. :-) Sweetums you silly old thing you blew it again, you missed the real kicker in bush-league imbroglio. "Blew" WHAT, you silly old beeper geriatric? :-) The gist of Hans' proposal being that the League needs to reshuffle some of it's organization charts. Tsk. It's a LOT MORE than that, "sweetums." The ARRL has to have its MINDSET realigned and recalibrated to fit this new millennium. It can't continue on using the now-very-old standards and practices of the 1930s in amateur radio...such as the bias in favor of morsemanship over everything else...such as the bias in favor of featuring the HF bands over all other bands. His new program would "fix" what he perceives as some huge lack of Techs' interest in the ARRL and draw them into the Inner Sanctum. As of 7 May 2005, the actual license numbers from the FCC database, as shown on www.hamdata.com, show that 48.43% of all U.S. amateur licensees are in the Technician class category. [wait a few days and the percentage will get higher... :-) ] At the present rate of growth of Technicians...and at the present rate of attrition in all the other classes, the MAJORITY of U.S. amateur licensees will be Technicians in another couple of years. Regardless of not fitting YOUR perplexed paradigm on What Ham Radio Should Be, the unalterable fact is that the ARRL only pays lip-service and spins "approval" of those "lower classes" insofar as what the League thinks Ham Radio Should Be. If you would get away from sniping at others not sharing your concepts of hamdom, you could note the "survival syndrome" exhibited by the ARRL and its BoD...they just don't like CHANGE and want to keep things cozy and comfy as THEY like it in the hobby. Welp, in the end his perception ain't reality at all even with rough passes at rough numbers yes? Using survey numbers of 1996 in the year 2005 isn't even close to your "engineering way," "sweetums." It certainly would NOT be good business sense. Don't forget that the League gets millions out of their PUBLISHING and product sale/resale end of operations. [check out their Federal income tax statements for the real numbers] Fact is that ~17% of the pore downtrodden Techs are League members whilst only around 13% of the "high-ranking" Generals are members. Now what? Hmmm? Cut your smoke & mirrors act, "sweetums." :-) Let's take raw numbers, such as 46,655 ARRL member Techs in 1996. Compare those to 350,455 Techs as of 7 May 05 of 350,455. That's a delta of a "mere" 303,800! Cut your smoke & mirrors act Sweetums, I did not just get off the boat. An aircraft carrier is NOT a "boat." :-) Your glasses must have fallen in the water then, since you can't understand that USING 8 1/2 year old data to make your point (preceding) and now saying that this data is no good...that only makes you an intellectual hypocrite. Or a PCTA (they are very similar in that regard). Like I said, all is well in Newington. Hiram Percy would be delighted. Tsk. You are still mumbling Maxims? Maxim DIED over a half century ago, "sweetums." ARRL membership is STILL LESS than a quarter of all licensed U.S. amateurs. [21.1% to be more exact] ARRL bias, as revealed through the pages of QST, is still towards "working DX on HF with CW." QST still has a column of "The World Above 50 MHz," as if that was still a strange planet. :-) snore Poor baby...strain too much for your ancient bones? Can't handle controversy? Think you are "better" than the average ham hobbyist? Of course...you are morse code tested!!! That makes you "superior!" [superior...like the lake...all wet? :-) ] Quit chomping them hoagies, old timer, they give you gas and make you fall asleep in your rocker. |
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wrote:
From: on 10 May 2005 09:11:19 -0700 Yes Sweetums, a lousy 0.7% drop in total membership in 8.5 years is not a dramatic anything. In fact it indicates a rather comfortable level of stability so all is well in Newington. Has ARRL membership EVER gotten as high as a quarter of all licensed U.S. amateurs? On "8.5 years is not a dramatic anything," that's a rather gross fluff-off, "sweetums." Agreed. But my math says the drop is more like almost 13%. Sources are the ARRL annual reports at: http://www2.remote.arrl.org/announce/annualreport/ 1997 (highest membership) 177,396 2003 (last year I have an annual report for) 154,545 22,851 members were lost in that time. Wouldn't a .7 % drop be more like 1242 members leaving? Hard to say that that sort of drop isn't dramatic! - Mike KB3EIA - |
#3
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Mike Coslo wrote: wrote: From: on 10 May 2005 09:11:19 -0700 Yes Sweetums, a lousy 0.7% drop in total membership in 8.5 years is not a dramatic anything. In fact it indicates a rather comfortable level of stability so all is well in Newington. Has ARRL membership EVER gotten as high as a quarter of all licensed U.S. amateurs? On "8.5 years is not a dramatic anything," that's a rather gross fluff-off, "sweetums." Agreed. But my math says the drop is more like almost 13%. Sources are the ARRL annual reports at: http://www2.remote.arrl.org/announce/annualreport/ 1997 (highest membership) 177,396 2003 (last year I have an annual report for) 154,545 22,851 members were lost in that time. Wouldn't a .7 % drop be more like 1242 members leaving? Hard to say that that sort of drop isn't dramatic! - Mike KB3EIA - Apologies for being repetitious here but sometimes that's what it takes .. . When I asked Sumner for the by-class breakdown he wrote that the last available data he has is from August *1996* as reported in the February 1997 issue of QST. Extras 38,852 Advanced 39,430 General 25,245 Tech Plus 22,634 Tech 24,021 Novice 2,627 Total members Aug. 1996 = 152,809 If you have a problem with this don't bore me with it, take it up with Sumner. w3rv |
#5
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Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote: last available data he has is from August *1996* as reported in the February 1997 issue of QST. Extras 38,852 Advanced 39,430 General 25,245 Tech Plus 22,634 Tech 24,021 Novice 2,627 Total members Aug. 1996 = 152,809 If you have a problem with this don't bore me with it, take it up with Sumner. From the ARRL Annual Report for 1996 source http://www.arrl.org/announce/annualreport/ On page 5, they announce the numbers: 175,023 members The following year was the year that the ARRL experienced its all time peak membership: 177,396. So whether I'm boring you or not, you were the one bragging about your smarts in going to "the source". 'Scuse me?? Where, exactly, did I brag about any of it? I simply fired off another request for some info to a League management type and Sumner responded as usual. Which is typical of the sorts of things he and the rest of the folk at HQ get paid to do. I've done it any number of times in the past and I expect I'll do it many more times in the future. This is "bragging" on my part?? I went to a source too. Mine aren't broken down by class, but you would have to admit that 22,214 is a significant difference when the total numbers are compared. Uh-huh. As if an 11% discrepancy in some arcane data in a hobby NG actually matters. One of us is wrong with the numbers. Makes no sense. Maybe your source made a mistake? Or maybe *all* those annual reports were wrong. Which do you think more likely? I don't "think about" such things Michael, I don't take offhand potshots at whether or not a specfic dataset is right or wrong and neither do the rest of us who are expected to responsibly process data and crunch numbers. We chase down the data to it's source and straighten out discrepancies by the numbers. Yeah, I know. "Not your field". Obviously. Not my problem. His e-mail address is . - mike KB3EIA - w3rv |
#6
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wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote: wrote: last available data he has is from August *1996* as reported in the February 1997 issue of QST. Extras 38,852 Advanced 39,430 General 25,245 Tech Plus 22,634 Tech 24,021 Novice 2,627 Total members Aug. 1996 = 152,809 If you have a problem with this don't bore me with it, take it up with Sumner. From the ARRL Annual Report for 1996 source http://www.arrl.org/announce/annualreport/ On page 5, they announce the numbers: 175,023 members The following year was the year that the ARRL experienced its all time peak membership: 177,396. So whether I'm boring you or not, you were the one bragging about your smarts in going to "the source". 'Scuse me?? Where, exactly, did I brag about any of it? I simply fired off another request for some info to a League management type and Sumner responded as usual. Which is typical of the sorts of things he and the rest of the folk at HQ get paid to do. I've done it any number of times in the past and I expect I'll do it many more times in the future. This is "bragging" on my part?? You wrote: * Nah, no applause Sweetums, it's just and old engineer's trick which * apparently isn't used much these days. "If you don't have the info * simply get off yer butt and ASK somebody who DOES have info." You don't think that is sarcastic and bragging about how you were astute enough to do a simple task that apparently is little used? I went to a source too. Mine aren't broken down by class, but you would have to admit that 22,214 is a significant difference when the total numbers are compared. Uh-huh. As if an 11% discrepancy in some arcane data in a hobby NG actually matters. If you read the reports, it doesn't appear that ARRL thinks the membership numbers are arcane. They are *very* much concerned about the membership drop. It isn't too hard to figure out what happens to an organization that loses 13% of its members in 6 years (1997-2003) One of us is wrong with the numbers. Makes no sense. Maybe your source made a mistake? Or maybe *all* those annual reports were wrong. Which do you think more likely? I don't "think about" such things Michael, I don't take offhand potshots What offhand potshot? Is reporting a different result a potshot? at whether or not a specfic dataset is right or wrong and neither do the rest of us who are expected to responsibly process data and crunch numbers. Do people who responsibly process data (as opposed to say me?...) happily process data that is wrong? We chase down the data to it's source and straighten out discrepancies by the numbers. Cool. I don't feel much need to chase my numbers down much further, as the annual reports, while not unimpeachable, are an audited instrument. Bad membership figures in an annual report would be bad indeed. Yeah, I know. "Not your field". Obviously. I don't understand this at all. Are you arguing from authority? Not my problem. His e-mail address is No thanks. I don't know why you're worked up about this. Show me the location of my rudeness and "offhand potshot" behavior, and I'll be happy to apologise here in the group. - Mike KB3EIA - |
#7
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wrote: On "8.5 years is not a dramatic anything," that's a rather gross fluff-off, "sweetums." A child who begins public school at age 5 will be almost out of Middle school in 8 1/2 years. Rather dramatic, I'd say...but, since you are cheerleading the ARRL, you will aerily dismiss it when it comes to the League. And that same child is more likely to be an HF-licensed Radio Amateur in that time frame than you are, Lennie. Embarrassing, ain't it... Steve, K4YZ |
#8
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From: "K4YZ" on May 11, 10:15 am
wrote [in response to W3RV]: On "8.5 years is not a dramatic anything," that's a rather gross fluff-off, "sweetums." A child who begins public school at age 5 will be almost out of Middle school in 8 1/2 years. Rather dramatic, I'd say...but, since you are cheerleading the ARRL, you will aerily dismiss it when it comes to the League. And that same child is more likely to be an HF-licensed Radio Amateur in that time frame than you are, Lennie. Embarrassing, ain't it... Tsk, tsk, tsk. NO "embarrasment" at all...to me. I've been a working PROFESSIONAL in radio-electronics since 1952, passed a First 'Phone test in 1956, been co-owner of a business radio in what is now called Private Land Mobile Radio Service, and have legally OPERATED on many MORE parts of the EM spectrum than is permitted to just amateur radio licensees. However, Robeson's post is just more of the puerile junior-high school babbling by the Avenging Angle of Dearth, Stebie Robeson, off on another tangent of hatred, trying to mouth-off more abuse. Tsk. It does indicate that the mindset of some amateur extras hasn't gone much beyond age 13 1/2. At question is NUMBER DATA on/from ARRL and the DATE of such numbers. Kelly contends that an 8 1/2 year period is inconsequential to the discussion. Coslo disagrees with that. I disagree with Kelly's contention. Robeson can only jeer and heckle the participants in that discussion, not being able to think while in the midst of his unstable emotional volatility. Kelly thinks that the ARRL is "going along swimingly," no problems there, everything just fine. Not the case in reality. Brakob realizes that and so does Coslo. Note the statements on the www.hamdata.com webpage in regards to statistics: TECHNICIAN class license totals have been increasing at a rate of 26 per day! [that's about four times faster than the combined General and Extra class increases of 6 per day] On the license class totals, it is interesting to compare (via Hamdata) those of 11 May 05 versus those of two years prior: 2005 2003 Both Tech Classes - 350,566 348,749 All four others - 373,171 378,994 Total, all classes - 723,737 727,743 Percentage of Techs - 48.44 47.92 Comparison of Growth, 2005 v. 2003 Gain or Loss, Techs - +1,817 Gain or Loss, other four - -5,823 Gain or Loss, all licensees -4,006 It should be noted that the peak of U.S. amateur radio license numbers was on 2 Jul 03 with a total of 737,938 then (number of club calls not known). The Hamdata statistics are derived automatically by downloading the publicly-available FCC database (massive in size) and sorting for classes. The increase in both Technician classes is not "dramatic" but it IS an increase and has NOT stopped as some amateur extras claimed "would happen" after the 12-year elapse from the 1991 creation of the (no-code-test) Technician class. At 48.44 percent of ALL current licensees, that IS a very large percentage and is constantly approaching a MAJORITY (it hasn't stopped increasing in 14 years). It should be obvious (but is not to some closed mindsets) that the "other four" classes (Novice, General, Advanced, Extra) have had their totals DROP in numbers. The "other four" all require morse code testing. The no-longer-issued-new Novice and Advanced classes dropped by 11,649 but the General and Extra classes gained only 5,826. The net change in the "other four" is -5,823. The two-year growth in both Technician classes is NOT enough to stem the 4,006 loss in licenses overall in two years. The (no-code-test) Technician class licensee is FORBIDDEN to operate below 30 MHz. A Technician Plus licensee is permitted below 30 MHz only if they have taken a morse code test. Old paradigms of "the majority of hams work in the HF bands" is rapidly approaching oblivion. The "World Above 50 MHz" may soon be the majority-use spectrum in amateur radio. The ARRL may not be tuned in to that band... |
#9
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wrote:
From: "K4YZ" on May 11, 10:15 am wrote [in response to W3RV]: Note the statements on the www.hamdata.com webpage in regards to statistics: TECHNICIAN class license totals have been increasing at a rate of 26 per day! [that's about four times faster than the combined General and Extra class increases of 6 per day] Does that 26 per day include Technician Pluses renewed as Technicians? Does it include the Novices who pass Element 2 and get a "Tech-with-HF"? On the license class totals, it is interesting to compare (via Hamdata) those of 11 May 05 versus those of two years prior: 2005 2003 Both Tech Classes - 350,566 348,749 All four others - 373,171 378,994 Total, all classes - 723,737 727,743 Percentage of Techs - 48.44 47.92 Comparison of Growth, 2005 v. 2003 Gain or Loss, Techs - +1,817 Gain or Loss, other four - -5,823 Gain or Loss, all licensees -4,006 Very interesting! But note that the hamdata.com numbers include licenses that are expired but in the grace period. They also include club and other non-operator licenses. The numbers I post here twice a month include only current, unexpired licenses held by individuals. I think the totals I post are a more accurate snapshot of the license situation than the numbers on hamdata.com, because the inclusion of expired-but-in-the-grace-period licenses skews the totals considerably. It should be noted that the peak of U.S. amateur radio license numbers was on 2 Jul 03 with a total of 737,938 then (number of club calls not known). The Hamdata statistics are derived automatically by downloading the publicly-available FCC database (massive in size) and sorting for classes. How massive? Let's look at some other numbers: These are the numbers of current, unexpired amateur licenses held by individuals on the stated dates: As of May 14, 2000: Novice - 49,329 (7.31%) Technician - 205,394 (30.44%) Technician Plus - 128,860 (19.09%) General - 112,677 (16.70%) Advanced - 99,782 (14.79%) Extra - 78,750 (11.67%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.53%) Total General/Advanced/Extra - 291,209 (43.16%) Total Novice/General/Advanced/Extra - 340,538 (50.47%) Total all classes - 674,792 As of April 30, 2005: Novice - 28,604 (decrease of 20,725) (4.29%) Technician - 268,116 (increase of 62,722) (40.23%) Technician Plus - 49,987 (decrease of 78,873) (7.50%) General - 136,783 (increase of 24,106) (20.52%) Advanced - 76,410 (decrease of 23,372) (11.46%) Extra - 106,577 (increase of 27,827) (15.99%) Total Tech/TechPlus - 318,103 (decrease of 16,151) (47.73%) Total General/Advanced/Extra - 319,770 (increase of 28,651) (47.98%) Total Novice/General/Advanced/Extra - 348,374 (increase of 7,836) (52.27%) Total all classes - 666,477 (decrease of 8,315) The increase in both Technician classes is not "dramatic" but it IS an increase and has NOT stopped as some amateur extras claimed "would happen" after the 12-year elapse from the 1991 creation of the (no-code-test) Technician class. Who claimed that would happen? I sure didn't. At 48.44 percent of ALL current licensees, that IS a very large percentage and is constantly approaching a MAJORITY (it hasn't stopped increasing in 14 years). Not really. The number of current Tech/Tech Plus licenses held by individuals is now over 16,000 *less* than it was just 5 years ago. It is trending *away* from a majority - if you look at the number of current, unexpired licenses. The percentage of US hams with a current, unexpired Tech or Tech Plus license has dropped by 1.8% in the past 5 years. The percentage of US hams with a current, unexpired General, Advanced or Extra license has grown by 4.82% in the same time period. Of course some of that growth is Novices and Tech Pluses upgrading to General or Extra. And some of it is new hams who don't let the current license requirements stop them. It should be obvious (but is not to some closed mindsets) that the "other four" classes (Novice, General, Advanced, Extra) have had their totals DROP in numbers. Yet in the 5 years since restructuring, the opposite is true - the number of Techs/Tech Pluses has dropped and the number of the "other four" has increased. The "other four" all require morse code testing. So does a Tech Plus, but you count them as Techs. You also count licenses that are expired but in the grace period as if they were current licenses. The no-longer-issued-new Novice and Advanced classes dropped by 11,649 but the General and Extra classes gained only 5,826. The net change in the "other four" is -5,823. The two-year growth in both Technician classes is NOT enough to stem the 4,006 loss in licenses overall in two years. And the significance of this is? The (no-code-test) Technician class licensee is FORBIDDEN to operate below 30 MHz. Only if they have not passed Element 1. A Technician Plus licensee is permitted below 30 MHz only if they have taken a morse code test. Of course Technician Pluses who renew as Technicians keep their HF privileges, and Technicians who pass Element 1 get them, even though their licenses don't change class. So an unknown number of "Technicians" can legally operate on some HF amateur bands. Also, any amateur with a Technician Plus or Novice license, current, grace period, or expired, can get a General or Extra without any further code testing. What's your point in all this, Len? You give a lot of numbers but never seem to say why they matter. And why does all this concern you so much? You're not a radio amateur, and it appears that you'll never become one either - your "out of the box" claim of almost 5-1/2 years ago notwithstanding. |
#10
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From: on Thurs,May 12 2005 3:26 pm
wrote: But note that the hamdata.com numbers include licenses that are expired but in the grace period. They also include club and other non-operator licenses. The numbers I post here twice a month include only current, unexpired licenses held by individuals. So sayeth the Keeper of the Amateur Census. :-) I think the totals I post are a more accurate snapshot of the license situation than the numbers on hamdata.com, because the inclusion of expired-but-in-the-grace-period licenses skews the totals considerably. I don't think so. Many others don't think so. Now PROVE you are the ONLY ACCURATE voice of what goes on in this "amateur community." The FCC doesn't appear to think as you do, Jimmie. If a licensee is in their grace period and then renews their license before that period is up, it just resets the FCC data. The licensed amateur still retains his/her license after renewal. It should be noted that the peak of U.S. amateur radio license numbers was on 2 Jul 03 with a total of 737,938 then (number of club calls not known). The Hamdata statistics are derived automatically by downloading the publicly-available FCC database (massive in size) and sorting for classes. How massive? You have to ask?!? :-) MANY megabytes, Jimmie. The information is THERE, publicly accessible. As Kellie exhorts, "get off your duff and go find it!" :-) Hint: The actual numbers change on database size. Who claimed that would happen? I sure didn't. Tsk, tsk. My posting was NOT directed to you. :-) You are NOT on trial. Tell your legal counsel to quit billing you for legal representation. This is NOT a court. :-) Of course Technician Pluses who renew as Technicians keep their HF privileges, and Technicians who pass Element 1 get them, even though their licenses don't change class. So an unknown number of "Technicians" can legally operate on some HF amateur bands. Also, any amateur with a Technician Plus or Novice license, current, grace period, or expired, can get a General or Extra without any further code testing. Tsk, tsk, tsk. Jimmie Noserve is still trying to foist off his OWN concept of "the real amateur community" where the Technician classes are "not real hams" (REAL hams work DX on HF with CW?). Jimmie boy, give us your EXACT numbers on those Tech class licensees who ONLY "work" above 30 MHz. Then PROVE that they all hunger for or desire to "work CW" on the HF bands...as all "real hams" should. :-) What's your point in all this, Len? You give a lot of numbers but never seem to say why they matter. "Sweetums," I don't INTERPRET raw data. I just quote it from the public database downloaded by one website from the FCC. I HAVE said "why it matters." You don't want to listen. You don't want to believe anything contrary to your immaculate concept of "real ham radio." Why does that bother you so much, Jimmie? Do you suspect I gored your sacred cow or something? Has your "honor" been sullied? Are you "appealing a court ruling" in here? Must be. You take things SO seriously! And why does all this concern you so much? I dunno, Jimmie, YOU are going to TELL me WHY "I am so concerned" because you KNOW everything. :-) Maybe I might want to get a ham license someday? Or maybe I just like to get to the TRUTH of matters without all the smoke and mirrors of some fanatics who take their HOBBY as a Life Calling? You're not a radio amateur, and it appears that you'll never become one either - Tsk, tsk. Jimmie boy, YOU don't CONTROL anything or anybody. I'm a PROFESSIONAL in radio-electronics. Have been for 53 years. I'm a HOBBYIST in radio-electronics too, have been for about 57 years. [ sunnuvagun! ] your "out of the box" claim of almost 5-1/2 years ago notwithstanding. Poor baby. Poor Brother Jimmie, monk at the Church of Saint Hiram, having doubts about his LIFE CALLING in the AMATEUR ORDER. Tsk, tsk, tsk. A HOBBY is NOT a Life Calling, Jimmie. It doesn't require LIFELONG DEVOTION and Absolute Adherence to the VOWS taken when one entered the Order. I never made a SACRED VOW in HERE on anything, "Sweetums." You are trying to MANUFACTURE that condition. Nice misdirection on what HAD been a discussion of public database numbers versus Bro. Jimmie's concept of U.S. ham radio (as seen from the insides of his mind's monastery). I've taken ONE VOW absolute. In my marriage ceremony. I wear only ONE ring, a wedding ring. I've taken ANOTHER VOW absolute...that of defending the U.S. Constitution when I was inducted into the U.S. Army. I still hold to BOTH those vows. NO problem to me. Those are absolute. You apparently think some newsgroup content is EQUIVALENT to such an absolute VOW to be held forever. If so, you are as nuts as your buddy and amateur extra role-model for all hams, Stebie the Avenging Angle of Dearth. Go step out of your monastery, Bro. Jimmie. Peace be unto you. |
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