From: "K=D8=88B" on Mon 6 Jun 2005 03:14


wrote

4) Reducing the license test requirements has not brought sustained
growth to US amateur radio.


Does Amateur Radio need to grow?

If so, why?

1. In order to be at the same percentage as OTHER radio users;
the FCC regulates ALL civil radio in the USA and the
population of the USA is (keeping on) increasing. To be
competitive just to retain desired bands against all other
services requires a justification in citizen participants in
amateur radio...which means it must at least keep up with
the increasing population.

2. To retain a sizeable market for both equipment, components,
and publications aimed at radio amateurs. There are many,
many, many markets for electronics items today, much more
so than a half century ago. Manufacturers of equipment,
components, and publications desire a large enough
market to enable profit; shrinking market numbers are
coincident with reduced profit and that be a no-no.

3. Actuarial tables will show that normal life span is going
to have a greater effect on an activity where the
participants are above the median population age...which
increases the probability of earlier attrition of numbers.
[regardless of egregious boasting or frequent, vociferous
denial, radio amateurs will NOT live forever] Note:
amateur radio demographics indicate the participants are
older than the national population median age.

4. Amateur radio is basically a HOBBY. There are many more
types and kinds of activity available to the population
today versus a half century ago and that is competition
for available free time for hobbyists. Greater numbers
of amateur radio participants will increase exposure and
possible interest to the general public, demonstrate to
government agencies for favorable decisions in favor of
amateur radio participants. Note: The ARRL membership
as of the end of 2004 was only 140 thousand while the
Academy of Model Aeronautics, the USA national membership
organization of model airplane flyers was 175 thousand
at that same time. [source: website statements of both
organizations]

5. The no-code-test Technician Class license has only been
available for 14 years and (as of Sunday, 5 Jun 05) already
has 293,613 licensees out of a total of 722,452 individual
licenses in the USA. Had that not been available, the
total number of amateur licenses would have SHRUNK by a
sizeable number. The exact amount of shrinkage is
unknown since it is impossible to accurately predict an
alternate future. That shrinkage could, at worst case,
reduced the Sunday totals to 428,839 total individual
licenses, a drop to 59.36 percent. Currently (as of
Sunday, 5 Jun 05) the no-code-test Technician class
license represents 40.64 percent of the total individual
license grants.

6. The availability of communications resources to the general
public has greatly expanded in the last half century. As
of the end of 2003 there were 100 MILLION cellular telephone
subscriptions in the USA. [USA Census Bureau statement in
early 2004] One in five families in the USA has SOME
access to the Internet. [Census Bureau, same statement as
for cellular telephony] Self-service facsimile machines
are common in chain drugstores and office supply stores.
Every government agency and nearly all military units of
battalion size or equivalent have websites in the USA.
Direct-dial-telephone service is available to all telephone
subscribers in the USA from small towns to large urban
areas; that includes direct dialing to foreign telephone
subscribers. The number of "eleven meter" CB transceivers
in use in the USA is roughly 5 MILLION (electronic industry
estimates several years ago); "CB" has existed for 47
years. FRS and GMRS handheld, average 5-mile range, are
available in consumer electronics stores/departments for
less than $100 a pair (no license required for FRS radios).
Throughout the USA public safety agencies have some form
of non-amateur radio communications, as do utility,
transportation, highway maintenance industries; the business
and government radio market has long been established in
the USA and major countries in the world.

As an adjunct to several items in competition for advertising
income necessary to sustain some publications, it should be
pointed out that the number of printed periodicals in the
USA has tripled (almost quadrupled) in the last half century.
Add to that the competiiton from the Internet ad markets since
the public release of the Internet in 1991 and the advertising
space purchasers are spread over a large number of venues.
In USA amateur radio periodicals, Ham Radio, Ham Radio Horizons,
73, and CQ VHF have all been forced to close due to insufficient
income from ad sales. [QEX and Communications Quarterly, a
attempt at some resumption of Ham Radio magazine content, were
joined, but with marginal success on ad space sales] Note:
HR, 73, CQ are all "independent" periodical publishers whose
operating income is dependent entirely on advertising space
sales. Some non-amateur-specific periodicals such as Popular
Communications have enjoyed an increase in readership and
drawing more ad space purchasers. Marketing follows trends and
interests generated through advertising and adjusts product
prices accordingly. Advertising, though irritating to some, is
a good barometer of the "product weather."

To sustain at least the status quo, U.S. amateur radio license
numbers must follow the population increase. To be competitive
for both attention and product pricing, as well as for favorable
regulations and new products, the license numbers must grow.

Individual radio amateurs have expressed an opinion that growth
should NOT happen. Those may be looking at their own activities
without regard for the overall national picture or advances in
overall communications capabilities. To them everything is
"comfortable" as it is. Those same "comfortable as it is"
amateurs will begin to attrit in a decade or two and their
numbers will drop. That will shrink the number of licensees
despite the recent increases due almost entirely to the no-code-
test licensees of the last 14 years. Shrinkage in numbers due
to old-timers leaving must be offset by more than just that "new"
no-code-test license class.