On Feb 26, 8:03 am, Klystron wrote:
"Dee Flint" wrote:
"Klystron" wrote:

I think that most people who are technically inclined to any
reasonable degree have had some awareness of ham radio, at some point in
their lives.

Agreed. But new hams don't just come from the "technically inclined".
In fact,
in many cases what first interested someone in technology was ham
radio.

There's also the issue of "old/inaccurate information". I have come
across people who
were knowledgeable about ham radio 30-40 years ago, but thought it had
died out in
the 1970s or so. Or who thought that the equipment had to be large,
expensive and
power-consuming. Others thought ham radio and cb were the same thing,
or that cb had
replaced ham radio (!)

Most were deterred from becoming involved in it by the need
to jump through the hoop of learning a useless and obsolete "skill"
(yes, I know, you probably don't see it as such) that they found
repellent.

Whatever your view of the *test*, Morse Code is still in wide use in
amateur radio.
Therefore, by definition, skill in its use is neither useless nor
obsolete for hams.

Now that that hoop has been eliminated, the reason that they
never became hams has been eliminated. Once that word gets around, I
believe that many technophiles will slowly gravitate to ham radio (as I
did).

Of course more new hams would be a Good Thing. However, the relatively
slow
growth of the past year, while welcome, means that either there aren't
so many
people out there who were repelled by the test, or that they haven't
yet found
out it's gone. Or both.

I will continue to post these numbers in an effort to document what's
happening.

Try more like 6 years since there is a two year grace period after the
expiration date that also needs to be factored in.

Actually, that would bring it up to 7 years (5 year "expected value
"
on the random variable of 'term of license remaining at time of death'
plus 2 years of grace).

No, 6 years is the right number if the grace period is being
considered. Here's why:

If the license term is 10 years and the grace period is 2 years and
the likelihood of
a ham dying is the same for any given year, then the median value is
halfway through
that combined 12 year period. Which is 6 years.

IOW, all else being equal, half of the hams who die in the 12 year
license-term-plus-grace-period
interval will do so in the first 6 years, and half will do so in the
second 6 years.

If the grace period is not considered, the median value happens at 5
years.

73 de Jim, N2EY